Metals
Today’s price sits at the 61.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 38% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 94.0
- Upside to median
- -6.0%
- Last close
- $373.51
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No income; scenario mix of continued central-bank accumulation (bank forecasts discounted toward fair value) and real-yield-driven de-rating.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.5%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -1.0%
- P10
- -7.0%
Long-run real gold appreciation near inflation plus a partial de-rating toward the median fair value.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +1.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.