Metals
Today’s price sits at the 76.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 24% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 87.5
- Upside to median
- -12.5%
- Last close
- $398.38
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.8%
- P75
- +13.5%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -9.5%
- P10
- -19.8%
55% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No yield; inflation-linked drift and continued central-bank demand offset by partial convergence toward fair value; dispersion from gold volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.1%
- P75
- +9.1%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -4.1%
- P10
- -10.1%
Inflation-linked drift less one-third convergence toward the fair-value median over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.45%
- Expected excess
- -2.5%
- Basis
- proxy
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury's modeled return exceeds gold's with far less uncertainty.