Japan Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 47.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 100.7
- Upside to median
- +0.7%
- Last close
- $97.96
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-09-21
51/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.5%
- P75
- +17.8%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -3.8%
- P10
- -13.5%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Building blocks: about 2.3% dividend yield plus about 6% EPS growth including buybacks, with no valuation convergence; dispersion from Japanese equity volatility in USD terms.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.6%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +6.8%
- P25
- +0.6%
- P10
- -5.0%
Building blocks over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.45%
- Expected excess
- +2.6%
- Basis
- proxy
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.