Metals
Today’s price sits at the 48.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 100.7
- Upside to median
- +0.7%
- Last close
- $403.35
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +14.3%
- Median
- +2.7%
- P25
- -9.0%
- P10
- -18.7%
56% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Income or carry plus sustainable economic growth plus a partial convergence of 22% of the modeled fair-value gap over one year, with dispersion set by the asset's own return volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.6%
- P75
- +10.1%
- Median
- +2.6%
- P25
- -4.9%
- P10
- -11.3%
Same decomposition with 50% of the fair-value gap closing over three years, annualized.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.17%
- Expected excess
- -1.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected return less the 1-year Treasury par yield on an investment basis. This is a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return, and no calibrated probability of beating the hurdle passed the publication gate for this class.