Valuation Lens — September 9, 2026

China & Hong Kong Equities and Emerging Markets Equities screen cheapest against modeled current value, while Energy and Crypto screen most expensive

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

September 9, 2026Data cutoff Sep 9, 2026, 9:05 PM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.17%1y Treasury

The one-year par yield of 4.17% is the annual hurdle every asset class is measured against, and it sits alongside a 10-year real yield of 2.46% in the 99.5th percentile of its own five-year range.

10y Treasury: 4.8%
10y real: 2.5%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+1.0
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
109.894.6–121.2
Upside to median
+9.8%
1y modeled
+12.4%-19.4% to 44.1%
vs Treasury
+8.2%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
+0.5
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
104.192.8–115.1
Upside to median
+4.1%
1y modeled
+11.2%-12.1% to 34.5%
vs Treasury
+7.0%
Fixed IncomeBND
+0.3
Fair
Median fair value
100.597.8–102.9
Upside to median
+0.5%
1y modeled
+4.8%-2.8% to 12.4%
vs Treasury
+0.6%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
+0.2
Fair
Median fair value
101.091.6–110.1
Upside to median
+1.0%
1y modeled
+8.8%-11.7% to 29.3%
vs Treasury
+4.6%
Real EstateVNQ
+0.1
Fair
Median fair value
100.591.2–109.9
Upside to median
+0.5%
1y modeled
+6.8%-15.4% to 29.0%
vs Treasury
+2.6%
MetalsGLD
+0.1
Fair
Median fair value
100.789.9–109.5
Upside to median
+0.7%
1y modeled
+2.7%-18.7% to 24.0%
vs Treasury
-1.5%
Europe EquitiesVGK
0.0
Fair
Median fair value
99.992.3–108.7
Upside to median
-0.1%
1y modeled
+9.7%-10.7% to 30.0%
vs Treasury
+5.5%
US EquitiesSPY
-0.2
Fair
Median fair value
98.790.3–107.2
Upside to median
-1.3%
1y modeled
+10.1%-9.6% to 29.9%
vs Treasury
+5.9%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-0.2
Fair
Median fair value
99.091.9–105.3
Upside to median
-1.0%
1y modeled
+8.3%-11.6% to 28.1%
vs Treasury
+4.1%
CryptoBTC-USD
-0.4
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
95.578.1–121.2
Upside to median
-4.5%
1y modeled
-0.8%-69.0% to 67.4%
vs Treasury
-5.0%
EnergyUSO
-1.1
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
88.175.4–103.2
Upside to median
-11.9%
1y modeled
-3.6%-39.7% to 32.6%
vs Treasury
-7.8%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-09-09, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+1.0 Somewhat cheap	109.8 94.6–121.2	+9.8%	+12.4% -19.4% to 44.1%	+8.2%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	+0.5 Somewhat cheap	104.1 92.8–115.1	+4.1%	+11.2% -12.1% to 34.5%	+7.0%
Fixed Income BND	+0.3 Fair	100.5 97.8–102.9	+0.5%	+4.8% -2.8% to 12.4%	+0.6%
Japan Equities EWJ	+0.2 Fair	101.0 91.6–110.1	+1.0%	+8.8% -11.7% to 29.3%	+4.6%
Real Estate VNQ	+0.1 Fair	100.5 91.2–109.9	+0.5%	+6.8% -15.4% to 29.0%	+2.6%
Metals GLD	+0.1 Fair	100.7 89.9–109.5	+0.7%	+2.7% -18.7% to 24.0%	-1.5%
Europe Equities VGK	0.0 Fair	99.9 92.3–108.7	-0.1%	+9.7% -10.7% to 30.0%	+5.5%
US Equities SPY	-0.2 Fair	98.7 90.3–107.2	-1.3%	+10.1% -9.6% to 29.9%	+5.9%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-0.2 Fair	99.0 91.9–105.3	-1.0%	+8.3% -11.6% to 28.1%	+4.1%
Crypto BTC-USD	-0.4 Somewhat expensive	95.5 78.1–121.2	-4.5%	-0.8% -69.0% to 67.4%	-5.0%
Energy USO	-1.1 Somewhat expensive	88.1 75.4–103.2	-11.9%	-3.6% -39.7% to 32.6%	-7.8%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+1.0Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 33.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 72% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 62%Historical base rate: 50%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

+0.5Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 41.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 48% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 64%Historical base rate: 67%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 45.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

+0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 47.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 48% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 61%Historical base rate: 69%

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

+0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 48.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 40% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 54%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Metals

GLD · Gold

+0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 48.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 47%Historical base rate: 71%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

0.0Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 50.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 45% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 62%Historical base rate: 79%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 53.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 64%Historical base rate: 85%

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 53.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 45% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 60%Historical base rate: 68%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

-0.4Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 55.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 28% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 30–180 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 47%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.1Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 68.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 40%Historical base rate: 60%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Sources8

1
Earnings Insight, September 4, 2026
FactSet Research Systems
2
Europe P/E Ratio and Earnings Growth - European Equity Valuations
Siblis Research
3
Emerging Markets Equity Valuations 2026
Siblis Research
4
Quarterly REIT Performance Data
Nareit
5
Onchain Valuation: What Bitcoin's Realized Price Says About 2026
Amberdata
6
MVRV Explained: Bitcoin's On-Chain Valuation Metric
BIT
7
Global ex-US equities: Insights and market outlook
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
8
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) product profile
The Vanguard Group

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: 2026-09-09_valuation-lens_210500-et

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.