Valuation Lens — September 3, 2026
China and Japan lead value; real estate is priciest
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
The preferred one-year hurdle is 4.16%, while the 10-year Treasury and 10-year real yield are 4.79% and 2.45%, respectively.
- 10y Treasury
- 4.8%
- 10y real
- 2.5%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- +2.2Cheap
- Median fair value
- 111.3104.5–118.1
- Upside to median
- +11.3%
- 1y modeled
- +10.0%-15.2% to 35.2%
- vs Treasury
- +5.8%
- +1.4Cheap
- Median fair value
- 105.399.4–111.0
- Upside to median
- +5.3%
- 1y modeled
- +7.5%-12.6% to 27.6%
- vs Treasury
- +3.3%
- EnergyUSO+0.6Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 105.194.3–117.4
- Upside to median
- +5.1%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-25.5% to 37.5%
- vs Treasury
- +1.8%
- Fixed IncomeBND+0.5Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 101.098.5–102.3
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.0%-2.6% to 12.6%
- vs Treasury
- +0.8%
- +0.4Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 101.094.5–104.9
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-12.9% to 24.9%
- vs Treasury
- +1.8%
- MetalsGLD-0.5Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 97.288.8–105.5
- Upside to median
- -2.8%
- 1y modeled
- +4.0%-23.7% to 31.7%
- vs Treasury
- -0.2%
- CryptoBTC-USD-1.1Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 90.074.1–104.3
- Upside to median
- -10.0%
- 1y modeled
- +8.0%-42.4% to 58.4%
- vs Treasury
- +3.8%
- US EquitiesSPY-1.8Expensive
- Median fair value
- 92.483.3–98.2
- Upside to median
- -7.6%
- 1y modeled
- +3.0%-14.6% to 20.6%
- vs Treasury
- -1.2%
- -1.8Expensive
- Median fair value
- 89.882.6–98.6
- Upside to median
- -10.2%
- 1y modeled
- +4.0%-21.2% to 29.2%
- vs Treasury
- -0.2%
- -1.9Expensive
- Median fair value
- 93.387.9–98.2
- Upside to median
- -6.7%
- 1y modeled
- +4.5%-14.4% to 23.4%
- vs Treasury
- +0.3%
- Real EstateVNQ-2.6Exceptionally expensive
- Median fair value
- 86.780.8–93.0
- Upside to median
- -13.3%
- 1y modeled
- +4.0%-18.7% to 26.7%
- vs Treasury
- -0.2%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 13.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 87% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 26.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 73% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 39.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 41.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 43.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 58.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 41% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 68.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 10–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 79.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 80.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 19% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 81.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 94.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 6% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Sources15
- 1Snapshot of the S&P 500 Index Earnings Beat RateFirst Trust Advisors
- 2iShares MSCI China ETF | MCHIBlackRock / iShares
- 3iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF | EWHBlackRock / iShares
- 4
- 5iShares MSCI Australia ETF | EWABlackRock / iShares
- 6iShares MSCI Singapore ETF | EWSBlackRock / iShares
- 7iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF | EMXCBlackRock / iShares
- 8VGK - Vanguard FTSE Europe ETFVanguard
- 9VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate ETFVanguard
- 10
- 11
- 12Oil Market Report - August 2026International Energy Agency
- 13XOP: State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETFState Street Global Advisors
- 14BTC MVRV by Age ChartGlassnode
- 15BTC Realized Price by Age ChartGlassnode
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- 2026-09-03_valuation-lens_171317-et
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.