Valuation Lens - September 1, 2026
Non-U.S. equities show the clearest valuation discounts, while U.S. equities remain relatively rich and Treasury yields keep the hurdle competitive.
Valuation Lens - September 1, 2026
Global valuation favors cheaper non-U.S. equities over rich U.S. pricing
WHAT THIS REPORT DOES How Valuation Lens estimates present fair value and identifies markets that look cheap, fair, or expensive.
Valuation Lens helps investors judge whether current market pricing looks cheap, fair, or expensive relative to modeled present fair value.
Each asset class is evaluated by comparing today’s market price with a distribution of defensible current economic values. That fair-value distribution is built from asset-specific fundamentals, expected growth and cash-flow progression, valuation relationships and multiples, interest-rate and real-yield conditions, historical valuation context, and other relevant economic anchors. The result is not a pure price target: it is a structured estimate of what the asset could reasonably be worth today under a range of economically defensible assumptions.
Where market price sits within the modeled fair-value distribution determines the valuation score: toward the lower tail means cheaper, toward the upper tail means more expensive, and near the center is closer to fair.
The report highlights fair-value gap, modeled expected return, expected edge versus the 1Y Treasury benchmark, and confidence in the valuation signal.
Use the valuation score and fair-value curve as a disciplined decision aid alongside risk, diversification, and time-horizon considerations.
Valuation opportunity map
Green = cheaper relative to modeled fair value. Red = more expensive. Tiles are ordered from cheaper to more expensive.
Detailed valuation dashboard
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, the chart shows the range of defensible current economic values.
| Asset class | Fair-value distribution | Valuation | Fair-value gap | 1Y expected | Expected edge vs 1Y Treasury | Val. confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Emerging Markets Equities
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+2.2 Cheap | +16.0% Fair 116 | +11.0% -20% to +40% | +6.8% Treasury 4.2% | 77% moderate-high |
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China & Hong Kong Equities
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+2.2 Cheap | +14.0% Fair 114 | +11.5% -24% to +43% | +7.3% Treasury 4.2% | 75% moderate-high |
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Europe Equities
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+1.5 Cheap | +9.0% Fair 109 | +8.0% -14% to +28% | +3.8% Treasury 4.2% | 83% high |
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Japan Equities
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+1.5 Cheap | +7.0% Fair 107 | +7.5% -16% to +29% | +3.3% Treasury 4.2% | 81% high |
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Developed Pacific Equities
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+1.5 Cheap | +4.0% Fair 104 | +7.0% -15% to +27% | +2.8% Treasury 4.2% | 80% high |
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Fixed Income
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+0.6 Somewhat cheap | +2.0% Fair 102 | +4.8% -3% to +9% | +0.6% Treasury 4.2% | 90% high |
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Energy
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+0.6 Somewhat cheap | +2.0% Fair 102 | +6.0% -28% to +40% | +1.8% Treasury 4.2% | 77% moderate-high |
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Metals
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+0.6 Somewhat cheap | +3.0% Fair 103 | +5.0% -22% to +36% | +0.8% Treasury 4.2% | 73% moderate-high |
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Real Estate
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+0.6 Somewhat cheap | +4.0% Fair 104 | +7.0% -17% to +30% | +2.8% Treasury 4.2% | 73% moderate-high |
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US Equities
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-0.6 Somewhat expensive | -2.0% Fair 98 | +6.5% -15% to +25% | +2.3% Treasury 4.2% | 86% high |
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Crypto
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-0.6 Somewhat expensive | 0.0% Fair 100 | +8.0% -50% to +80% | +3.8% Treasury 4.2% | 55% moderate |
1 Emerging Markets Equities VWO · Median fair value 116 Valuation +2.2 Cheap Fair-value gap +16.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +6.8% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 77% moderate-high
- Low ex-China forward multiples provide the strongest cross-asset valuation support.
- Country-level growth and earnings dispersion creates multiple independent upside scenarios.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWOEmerging Markets Broad Index | direct | 60.68 | 116 | +2.2 · Cheap | +11.0% |
weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios with weighted KDE for display density
Limitations: The upstream recent-price layer is present, but exact representative-benchmark OHLC rows were not retained in this execution artifact; valuation calculations are unaffected.; DGS1 is a start-date investment-basis hurdle proxy, not the realized return of a specific one-year Treasury security.; Tiingo historical ETF distribution-yield feature unavailable or not entitled; conditional calibration not run.
Sources: MSCI
2 China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI · Median fair value 114 Valuation +2.2 Cheap Fair-value gap +14.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +7.3% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 75% moderate-high
- Low forward earnings and book-value multiples support today-equivalent fair value.
- A wide valuation discount leaves room for upside in normalization scenarios.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHIChina Broad Market | direct | 54.41 | 114 | +2.2 · Cheap | +11.5% |
weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios with weighted KDE for display density
Limitations: Only the directly validated current-session row is retained in this execution artifact; the upstream schema reports 19-20 recent rows per symbol, so the chart context is partial.; DGS1 is a start-date investment-basis hurdle proxy, not the realized return of a specific one-year Treasury security.; Tiingo historical ETF distribution-yield feature unavailable or not entitled; conditional calibration not run.
Sources: MSCI
3 Europe Equities VGK · Median fair value 109 Valuation +1.5 Cheap Fair-value gap +9.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +3.8% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 83% high
- Forward valuation is below U.S. large-cap levels.
- Dividend income provides a meaningful component of economic value.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGKEurope Broad Market | direct | 90.72 | 109 | +1.5 · Cheap | +8.0% |
weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios with weighted KDE for display density
Limitations: Only the directly validated current-session row is retained in this execution artifact; the upstream schema reports 19-20 recent rows per symbol, so the chart context is partial.; DGS1 is a start-date investment-basis hurdle proxy, not the realized return of a specific one-year Treasury security.; Tiingo historical ETF distribution-yield feature unavailable or not entitled; conditional calibration not run.
Sources: MSCI
4 Japan Equities EWJ · Median fair value 107 Valuation +1.5 Cheap Fair-value gap +7.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +3.3% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 81% high
- Moderate forward valuation and cash distributions support current value.
- Corporate profitability and shareholder-return discipline support justified multiples.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWJJapan Broad Market | direct | 95.22 | 107 | +1.5 · Cheap | +7.5% |
weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios with weighted KDE for display density
Limitations: Only the directly validated current-session row is retained in this execution artifact; the upstream schema reports 19-20 recent rows per symbol, so the chart context is partial.; DGS1 is a start-date investment-basis hurdle proxy, not the realized return of a specific one-year Treasury security.; Tiingo historical ETF distribution-yield feature unavailable or not entitled; conditional calibration not run.
Sources: MSCI
5 Developed Pacific Equities EWA · Median fair value 104 Valuation +1.5 Cheap Fair-value gap +4.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +2.8% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 80% high
- A comparatively high dividend yield supports economic value.
- Regional diversification across financials, resources and defensives broadens valuation anchors.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWAAustralia Broad Market | direct | 29.68 | 104 | +1.5 · Cheap | +7.0% |
weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios with weighted KDE for display density
Limitations: The upstream recent-price layer is present, but exact representative-benchmark OHLC rows were not retained in this execution artifact; valuation calculations are unaffected.; DGS1 is a start-date investment-basis hurdle proxy, not the realized return of a specific one-year Treasury security.; Tiingo historical ETF distribution-yield feature unavailable or not entitled; conditional calibration not run.
Sources: MSCI
6 Fixed Income BND · Median fair value 102 Valuation +0.6 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +2.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +0.6% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 90% high
- Starting yield is close to or above the one-year cash hurdle.
- Defined duration allows transparent translation from justified yield changes to fair value.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNDUS Broad Bond Market | direct | 71.79 | 102 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +4.8% |
weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios with weighted KDE for display density
Limitations: The upstream recent-price layer is present, but exact representative-benchmark OHLC rows were not retained in this execution artifact; valuation calculations are unaffected.; DGS1 is a start-date investment-basis hurdle proxy, not the realized return of a specific one-year Treasury security.; Tiingo historical ETF distribution-yield feature unavailable or not entitled; conditional calibration not run.
Sources: Vanguard
7 Energy USO · Median fair value 102 Valuation +0.6 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +2.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +1.8% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 77% moderate-high
- Producer-equity forward multiples are not demanding.
- Commodity scarcity and supply-risk scenarios support the upper tail of fair value.
- EIA forecasts lower Brent prices in 2027, limiting assumptions based on current tightness.
- Commodity fair value is sensitive to geopolitical and supply-demand scenarios.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USOUS Crude Oil | direct | 141.00 | 102 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +6.0% |
weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios with weighted KDE for display density
Limitations: Only the directly validated current-session row is retained in this execution artifact; the upstream schema reports 19-20 recent rows per symbol, so the chart context is partial.; DGS1 is a start-date investment-basis hurdle proxy, not the realized return of a specific one-year Treasury security.; No sufficiently defensible historical valuation-state feature set is configured for conditional probability in v1.
Sources: State Street Global Advisors · U.S. Energy Information Administration
8 Metals GLD · Median fair value 103 Valuation +0.6 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +3.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +0.8% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 73% moderate-high
- Strong central-bank gold demand supports precious-metal value.
- Supply constraints and industrial demand support diversified metal scenarios.
- Positive real yields raise the opportunity cost of non-yielding metals.
- ETF outflows and cyclical industrial demand can offset official-sector support.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLDGold | direct | 396.75 | 103 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +5.0% |
weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios with weighted KDE for display density
Limitations: Only the directly validated current-session row is retained in this execution artifact; the upstream schema reports 19-20 recent rows per symbol, so the chart context is partial.; DGS1 is a start-date investment-basis hurdle proxy, not the realized return of a specific one-year Treasury security.; No sufficiently defensible historical valuation-state feature set is configured for conditional probability in v1.
Sources: World Gold Council
9 Real Estate VNQ · Median fair value 104 Valuation +0.6 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +4.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +2.8% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 73% moderate-high
- Healthy FFO growth supports property cash-flow value.
- Income-producing assets retain value support when operating growth offsets financing pressure.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQUS Real Estate | direct | 96.30 | 104 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +7.0% |
weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios with weighted KDE for display density
Limitations: The upstream recent-price layer is present, but exact representative-benchmark OHLC rows were not retained in this execution artifact; valuation calculations are unaffected.; DGS1 is a start-date investment-basis hurdle proxy, not the realized return of a specific one-year Treasury security.; Tiingo historical ETF distribution-yield feature unavailable or not entitled; conditional calibration not run.
Sources: Nareit
10 US Equities SPY · Median fair value 98 Valuation -0.6 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -2.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +2.3% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 86% high
- Strong forward earnings growth supports current economic output.
- Broad corporate profitability supports central fair-value scenarios.
- Forward valuation remains above the ten-year average, leaving less margin for multiple compression.
- Positive real yields keep the discount-rate hurdle elevated.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPYUS Large-Cap Index | direct | 761.78 | 98 | -0.6 · Somewhat expensive | +6.5% |
weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios with weighted KDE for display density
Limitations: The upstream recent-price layer is present, but exact representative-benchmark OHLC rows were not retained in this execution artifact; valuation calculations are unaffected.; Shiller-derived trailing earnings context is lower confidence because the latest earnings observation is six months old and the workbook is current/revised rather than publication-vintage.; DGS1 is a start-date investment-basis hurdle proxy, not the realized return of a specific one-year Treasury security.; Shiller CAPE history comes from the current/revised workbook, not true publication-vintage snapshots.; DGS1 is used as a start-date one-year Treasury hurdle proxy rather than a security-level realized Treasury total return.; Current regime lies outside the observed historical support of at least one matching feature; conditional probability withheld.
11 Crypto BTC-USD · Median fair value 100 Valuation -0.6 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap 0.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +3.8% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 55% moderate
- Realized-value metrics provide a non-price-only economic anchor.
- Network adoption and scarce issuance can support higher-value scenarios.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC-USDBitcoin | direct | 77,326.21 | 100 | -0.6 · Somewhat expensive | +8.0% |
weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios with weighted KDE for display density
Limitations: The upstream recent-price layer is present, but exact representative-benchmark OHLC rows were not retained in this execution artifact; valuation calculations are unaffected.; Insufficient completed 12-month outcome history (26 observations).
Sources: Glassnode
Valuation instruments 11
Emerging Markets Equities
VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
- Low ex-China forward multiples provide the strongest cross-asset valuation support.
- Country-level growth and earnings dispersion creates multiple independent upside scenarios.
- Country and sector composition create wide fair-value dispersion.
- A high U.S. cash hurdle and currency risk raise required returns.
China & Hong Kong Equities
MCHI · China Broad Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
- Low forward earnings and book-value multiples support today-equivalent fair value.
- A wide valuation discount leaves room for upside in normalization scenarios.
- Low multiples may reflect persistent growth, property and policy risk.
- Valuation convergence timing is highly uncertain.
Europe Equities
VGK · Europe Broad Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
- Forward valuation is below U.S. large-cap levels.
- Dividend income provides a meaningful component of economic value.
- Higher inflation and energy costs can constrain margins and discount-rate relief.
- Regional growth dispersion weakens the case for full multiple convergence.
Japan Equities
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
- Moderate forward valuation and cash distributions support current value.
- Corporate profitability and shareholder-return discipline support justified multiples.
- Domestic rate normalization can lower justified equity multiples.
- Currency effects create different economics across hedged and unhedged exposures.
Developed Pacific Equities
EWA · Australia Broad Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
- A comparatively high dividend yield supports economic value.
- Regional diversification across financials, resources and defensives broadens valuation anchors.
- Australian resource and financial concentration reduces anchor independence.
- Restrictive regional policy rates can limit justified multiples.
Fixed Income
BND · US Broad Bond Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
- Starting yield is close to or above the one-year cash hurdle.
- Defined duration allows transparent translation from justified yield changes to fair value.
- Further yield increases can reduce current bond fair values despite attractive carry.
- Credit-spread widening would hurt corporate-bond components.
Energy
USO · US Crude Oil
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
- Producer-equity forward multiples are not demanding.
- Commodity scarcity and supply-risk scenarios support the upper tail of fair value.
- EIA forecasts lower Brent prices in 2027, limiting assumptions based on current tightness.
- Commodity fair value is sensitive to geopolitical and supply-demand scenarios.
Metals
GLD · Gold
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
- Strong central-bank gold demand supports precious-metal value.
- Supply constraints and industrial demand support diversified metal scenarios.
- Positive real yields raise the opportunity cost of non-yielding metals.
- ETF outflows and cyclical industrial demand can offset official-sector support.
Real Estate
VNQ · US Real Estate
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
- Healthy FFO growth supports property cash-flow value.
- Income-producing assets retain value support when operating growth offsets financing pressure.
- High nominal yields raise financing costs and capitalization-rate pressure.
- REIT subsectors have materially different refinancing and cash-flow sensitivities.
US Equities
SPY · US Large-Cap Index
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
- Strong forward earnings growth supports current economic output.
- Broad corporate profitability supports central fair-value scenarios.
- Forward valuation remains above the ten-year average, leaving less margin for multiple compression.
- Positive real yields keep the discount-rate hurdle elevated.
Crypto
BTC-USD · Bitcoin
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
- Realized-value metrics provide a non-price-only economic anchor.
- Network adoption and scarce issuance can support higher-value scenarios.
- Intrinsic-value methodology remains less settled than for contractual cash-flow assets.
- The 1Y Treasury hurdle is positive and fair-value dispersion is exceptionally wide.
Where current market price (100) sits within the modeled fair-value distribution. Positive = cheaper; negative = more expensive.
Median modeled fair value relative to today’s price. It is not an expected return or a timing forecast.
A separate forward return scenario distribution that can differ materially from the fair-value gap.
Modeled 1Y expected return minus the current 1Y Treasury benchmark. Positive values indicate modeled return above the benchmark.
When available, this is the calibrated share of comparable historical starting regimes that beat the contemporaneous 1Y Treasury benchmark. Long-run base rates are not substituted for it.
Evidence-strength score displayed as a percentage for readability. It is not a probability that the valuation is correct.