Valuation Lens - August 19, 2026
China and Europe screen relatively cheaper, while U.S. equities remain expensive and high rates constrain real estate and gold.
Valuation Lens - August 19, 2026
Relative value favors China and Europe over U.S. equities
WHAT THIS REPORT DOES How Valuation Lens estimates present fair value and identifies markets that look cheap, fair, or expensive.
Valuation Lens helps investors judge whether current market pricing looks cheap, fair, or expensive relative to modeled present fair value.
Each asset class is evaluated by comparing today’s market price with a distribution of defensible current economic values. That fair-value distribution is built from asset-specific fundamentals, expected growth and cash-flow progression, valuation relationships and multiples, interest-rate and real-yield conditions, historical valuation context, and other relevant economic anchors. The result is not a pure price target: it is a structured estimate of what the asset could reasonably be worth today under a range of economically defensible assumptions.
Where market price sits within the modeled fair-value distribution determines the valuation score: toward the lower tail means cheaper, toward the upper tail means more expensive, and near the center is closer to fair.
The report highlights fair-value gap, modeled expected return, expected edge versus the 1Y Treasury benchmark, and confidence in the valuation signal.
Use the valuation score and fair-value curve as a disciplined decision aid alongside risk, diversification, and time-horizon considerations.
Valuation opportunity map
Green = cheaper relative to modeled fair value. Red = more expensive. Tiles are ordered from cheaper to more expensive.
Detailed valuation dashboard
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, the chart shows the range of defensible current economic values.
| Asset class | Fair-value distribution | Valuation | Fair-value gap | 1Y expected | Expected edge vs 1Y Treasury | Val. confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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China & Hong Kong Equities
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+1.4 Cheap | +12.0% Fair 112 | +9.5% -14% to +34% | +5.5% Treasury 4.0% | 77% moderate-high |
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Europe Equities
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+1.0 Somewhat cheap | +6.0% Fair 106 | +8.0% -10% to +25% | +4.0% Treasury 4.0% | 80% high |
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Emerging Markets Equities
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+0.6 Somewhat cheap | +4.0% Fair 104 | +8.0% -16% to +32% | +4.0% Treasury 4.0% | 76% moderate-high |
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Crypto
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+0.5 Somewhat cheap | +8.0% Fair 108 | +11.0% -45% to +80% | +7.0% Treasury 4.0% | 47% low-moderate |
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Fixed Income
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+0.4 Somewhat cheap | +1.0% Fair 101 | +4.8% -3% to +11% | +0.8% Treasury 4.0% | 89% high |
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Japan Equities
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+0.2 Fair | +1.0% Fair 101 | +7.0% -10% to +25% | +3.0% Treasury 4.0% | 80% high |
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Real Estate
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-0.3 Fair | -2.0% Fair 98 | +6.2% -13% to +25% | +2.2% Treasury 4.0% | 65% moderate-high |
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Metals
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-0.7 Somewhat expensive | -6.0% Fair 94 | +3.5% -18% to +28% | -0.5% Treasury 4.0% | 64% moderate |
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Developed Pacific Equities
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-0.9 Somewhat expensive | -4.0% Fair 96 | +5.5% -12% to +25% | +1.5% Treasury 4.0% | 78% moderate-high |
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Energy
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-0.9 Somewhat expensive | -8.0% Fair 92 | +3.5% -25% to +35% | -0.5% Treasury 4.0% | 65% moderate-high |
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US Equities
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-1.3 Expensive | -8.0% Fair 92 | +5.5% -12% to +23% | +1.5% Treasury 4.0% | 88% high |
1 China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI · Median fair value 112 Valuation +1.4 Cheap Fair-value gap +12.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +5.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 77% moderate-high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Broad-market P/E and P/B remain well below U.S. large-cap levels.
- Low starting multiples create more room for upside if earnings and policy conditions stabilize.
- Low multiples may reflect persistent growth, governance, and policy risk rather than mispricing alone.
- Current fundamental history is not sufficiently point-in-time to calibrate a narrow fair-value range.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHIChina Broad Market | direct | 55.39 | 112 | +1.4 · Cheap | +9.5% |
Weighted today-equivalent scenario distribution combining current-fundamental, peer-relative, discount-rate-adjusted, historical-context, and asset-specific anchors with conservative partial normalization.
Limitations: Current broad-fund P/E, P/B, and yield are available, but point-in-time historical forward-fundamental series are not supplied.; Economic and policy uncertainty warrants wider fair-value dispersion than developed-market equities.
Sources: BlackRock iShares
2 Europe Equities VGK · Median fair value 106 Valuation +1.0 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +6.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +4.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 80% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Current P/E is below U.S. large-cap forward valuation.
- Profitability and income support a modest fair-value premium to current market price in the central model.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGKEurope Broad Market | direct | 92.23 | 106 | +1.0 · Somewhat cheap | +8.0% |
Weighted today-equivalent scenario distribution combining current-fundamental, peer-relative, discount-rate-adjusted, historical-context, and asset-specific anchors with conservative partial normalization.
Limitations: Current broad-market valuation and profitability anchors are available, but point-in-time historical forward-fundamental series are not supplied.
Sources: Vanguard
3 Emerging Markets Equities VWO · Median fair value 104 Valuation +0.6 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +4.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +4.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 76% moderate-high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Current broad-market P/E remains below U.S. large-cap valuations.
- ROE near 17% provides a quality offset to emerging-market risk premia.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWOEmerging Markets Broad Index | direct | 60.04 | 104 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +8.0% |
Weighted today-equivalent scenario distribution combining current-fundamental, peer-relative, discount-rate-adjusted, historical-context, and asset-specific anchors with conservative partial normalization.
Limitations: The benchmark includes heterogeneous country and sector exposures; one broad valuation multiple can mask large internal dispersion.; Point-in-time historical forward-fundamental series are not supplied.
Sources: Vanguard
4 Crypto BTC-USD · Median fair value 108 Valuation +0.5 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +8.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +7.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 47% low-moderate
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Bitcoin's June True Market Mean was above the current benchmark price.
- On-chain cost-basis frameworks provide an observable valuation anchor distinct from recent price momentum.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC-USDBitcoin | direct | 68,621.06 | 108 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +11.0% |
Weighted today-equivalent scenario distribution combining current-fundamental, peer-relative, discount-rate-adjusted, historical-context, and asset-specific anchors with conservative partial normalization.
Limitations: No universally accepted intrinsic-value model exists; on-chain value anchors can shift materially with network activity and market structure.; The cited Glassnode cost-basis research predates the analysis date by about two months, so fair-value dispersion is intentionally very wide.; Upstream historical return calibration has insufficient completed 12-month outcomes.
Sources: Glassnode
5 Fixed Income BND · Median fair value 101 Valuation +0.4 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +1.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +0.8% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 89% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- BND's current SEC yield is above the 1-year Treasury hurdle.
- Broad bond carry is close to the 10-year Treasury yield, limiting the need for aggressive price appreciation assumptions.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNDUS Broad Bond Market | direct | 72.56 | 101 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +4.8% |
Weighted today-equivalent scenario distribution combining current-fundamental, peer-relative, discount-rate-adjusted, historical-context, and asset-specific anchors with conservative partial normalization.
Limitations: ETF SEC yield and duration are current anchors; full constituent cash-flow repricing and option-adjusted duration/convexity are not supplied.; IG/HY OAS histories in structured input are flagged short-history.
Sources: Vanguard
6 Japan Equities EWJ · Median fair value 101 Valuation +0.2 Fair Fair-value gap +1.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +3.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 80% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Dividend yield provides a meaningful cash-return component.
- Broad valuations are closer to developed-market peers than to historical deep-value levels, supporting a balanced central estimate.
- Current P/E is no longer at a deep discount to other developed markets.
- Currency and rate normalization can materially alter USD investor outcomes even when local fundamentals are stable.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWJJapan Broad Market | direct | 94.78 | 101 | +0.2 · Fair | +7.0% |
Weighted today-equivalent scenario distribution combining current-fundamental, peer-relative, discount-rate-adjusted, historical-context, and asset-specific anchors with conservative partial normalization.
Limitations: Current broad-fund valuation anchors are available, but historical point-in-time forward earnings and ROE series are not supplied.
Sources: BlackRock iShares
7 Real Estate VNQ · Median fair value 98 Valuation -0.3 Fair Fair-value gap -2.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +2.2% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 65% moderate-high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Income remains an important part of REIT economic value.
- A wide scenario range allows for asset-specific rent growth and NAV recovery even with high discount rates.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQUS Real Estate | direct | 98.61 | 98 | -0.3 · Fair | +6.2% |
Weighted today-equivalent scenario distribution combining current-fundamental, peer-relative, discount-rate-adjusted, historical-context, and asset-specific anchors with conservative partial normalization.
Limitations: Broad REIT AFFO, NAV discount, cap-rate, occupancy, and refinancing datasets are not supplied in machine-readable form.; Fair-value dispersion is widened because yield-spread evidence alone is not a complete REIT valuation model.
Sources: Vanguard
8 Metals GLD · Median fair value 94 Valuation -0.7 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -6.0% vs market 100 Expected edge -0.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 64% moderate
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Central-bank gold buying recovered sharply in Q2 2026.
- Investment and official-sector demand provide non-cash-flow anchors for gold's current economic value.
- High real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
- Q2 ETF outflows and high prices constrain some demand channels.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLDGold | direct | 413.84 | 94 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +3.5% |
Weighted today-equivalent scenario distribution combining current-fundamental, peer-relative, discount-rate-adjusted, historical-context, and asset-specific anchors with conservative partial normalization.
Limitations: Gold has no contractual cash flow; fair value is model-dependent and uses macro, demand, and supply anchors with wide dispersion.; The broad Metals asset class also includes silver, platinum, base metals, and mining equities, so GLD is only a representative anchor.
Sources: World Gold Council
9 Developed Pacific Equities EWA · Median fair value 96 Valuation -0.9 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -4.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +1.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 78% moderate-high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Dividend income provides a meaningful component of current economic value.
- Regional diversification across Australia, Singapore, and New Zealand reduces reliance on one valuation anchor.
- Australia and Pacific ex-Japan valuation multiples are relatively high.
- The asset class is heterogeneous and commodity, bank, and property exposures can respond differently to rates.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWAAustralia Broad Market | direct | 29.97 | 96 | -0.9 · Somewhat expensive | +5.5% |
Weighted today-equivalent scenario distribution combining current-fundamental, peer-relative, discount-rate-adjusted, historical-context, and asset-specific anchors with conservative partial normalization.
Limitations: The asset class spans Australia, Singapore, and New Zealand; no single benchmark captures every submarket's valuation structure.; Point-in-time historical forward-fundamental series are not supplied.
Sources: BlackRock iShares · BlackRock iShares
10 Energy USO · Median fair value 92 Valuation -0.9 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -8.0% vs market 100 Expected edge -0.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 65% moderate-high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Near-term EIA crude forecasts remain elevated because of constrained Middle East supply.
- Low inventories can sustain a scarcity premium while disruptions persist.
- EIA expects Brent to fall toward $69/b in 2027 as supply recovers and inventories rebuild.
- Futures-based ETF returns can diverge from spot oil because of roll yield and curve shape.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USOUS Crude Oil | direct | 130.91 | 92 | -0.9 · Somewhat expensive | +3.5% |
Weighted today-equivalent scenario distribution combining current-fundamental, peer-relative, discount-rate-adjusted, historical-context, and asset-specific anchors with conservative partial normalization.
Limitations: USO is a futures-based commodity vehicle; benchmark price does not map one-for-one to a single physical crude spot price.; EIA forecasts are scenario-sensitive to Strait of Hormuz disruptions and future inventory rebuilding.
11 US Equities SPY · Median fair value 92 Valuation -1.3 Expensive Fair-value gap -8.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +1.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 88% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Forward earnings growth remains strong in current institutional estimates.
- The modeled range gives some credit to sustained high profitability and cash generation despite elevated multiples.
- Shiller CAPE is extremely elevated versus its 30-year median.
- A 3.99% one-year Treasury hurdle raises the opportunity cost of high-duration equity cash flows.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPYUS Large-Cap Index | direct | 769.06 | 92 | -1.3 · Expensive | +5.5% |
Weighted today-equivalent scenario distribution combining current-fundamental, peer-relative, discount-rate-adjusted, historical-context, and asset-specific anchors with conservative partial normalization.
Limitations: CAPE inputs combine current price with lagged earnings and dividends; the model therefore uses CAPE as a long-horizon valuation anchor rather than a point estimate.; Fair-value scenarios apply conservative partial normalization rather than full historical mean reversion.
Sources: State Street Global Advisors
Valuation instruments 11
China & Hong Kong Equities
MCHI · China Broad Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Broad-market P/E and P/B remain well below U.S. large-cap levels.
- Low starting multiples create more room for upside if earnings and policy conditions stabilize.
- Low multiples may reflect persistent growth, governance, and policy risk rather than mispricing alone.
- Current fundamental history is not sufficiently point-in-time to calibrate a narrow fair-value range.
Europe Equities
VGK · Europe Broad Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Current P/E is below U.S. large-cap forward valuation.
- Profitability and income support a modest fair-value premium to current market price in the central model.
- A higher global discount-rate environment caps justified multiple expansion.
- Regional sector composition and energy sensitivity can change relative-value conclusions.
Emerging Markets Equities
VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Current broad-market P/E remains below U.S. large-cap valuations.
- ROE near 17% provides a quality offset to emerging-market risk premia.
- Country and sector composition can cause broad P/E and ROE to conceal large internal valuation differences.
- Higher required risk premia and currency uncertainty justify wider dispersion.
Crypto
BTC-USD · Bitcoin
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Bitcoin's June True Market Mean was above the current benchmark price.
- On-chain cost-basis frameworks provide an observable valuation anchor distinct from recent price momentum.
- On-chain valuation anchors can migrate quickly with realized capitalization and network activity.
- The asset has unusually wide model uncertainty and insufficient upstream 12-month calibration history.
Fixed Income
BND · US Broad Bond Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- BND's current SEC yield is above the 1-year Treasury hurdle.
- Broad bond carry is close to the 10-year Treasury yield, limiting the need for aggressive price appreciation assumptions.
- Duration near 5.7 years leaves prices sensitive to further yield increases.
- Credit spreads are relatively tight and the structured OAS histories are short.
Japan Equities
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Dividend yield provides a meaningful cash-return component.
- Broad valuations are closer to developed-market peers than to historical deep-value levels, supporting a balanced central estimate.
- Current P/E is no longer at a deep discount to other developed markets.
- Currency and rate normalization can materially alter USD investor outcomes even when local fundamentals are stable.
Real Estate
VNQ · US Real Estate
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Income remains an important part of REIT economic value.
- A wide scenario range allows for asset-specific rent growth and NAV recovery even with high discount rates.
- The 10-year Treasury yield materially exceeds VNQ's effective yield.
- Missing broad AFFO/NAV/cap-rate data lowers model reliability and widens fair-value uncertainty.
Metals
GLD · Gold
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Central-bank gold buying recovered sharply in Q2 2026.
- Investment and official-sector demand provide non-cash-flow anchors for gold's current economic value.
- High real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
- Q2 ETF outflows and high prices constrain some demand channels.
Developed Pacific Equities
EWA · Australia Broad Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Dividend income provides a meaningful component of current economic value.
- Regional diversification across Australia, Singapore, and New Zealand reduces reliance on one valuation anchor.
- Australia and Pacific ex-Japan valuation multiples are relatively high.
- The asset class is heterogeneous and commodity, bank, and property exposures can respond differently to rates.
Energy
USO · US Crude Oil
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Near-term EIA crude forecasts remain elevated because of constrained Middle East supply.
- Low inventories can sustain a scarcity premium while disruptions persist.
- EIA expects Brent to fall toward $69/b in 2027 as supply recovers and inventories rebuild.
- Futures-based ETF returns can diverge from spot oil because of roll yield and curve shape.
US Equities
SPY · US Large-Cap Index
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Forward earnings growth remains strong in current institutional estimates.
- The modeled range gives some credit to sustained high profitability and cash generation despite elevated multiples.
- Shiller CAPE is extremely elevated versus its 30-year median.
- A 3.99% one-year Treasury hurdle raises the opportunity cost of high-duration equity cash flows.
Where current market price (100) sits within the modeled fair-value distribution. Positive = cheaper; negative = more expensive.
Median modeled fair value relative to today’s price. It is not an expected return or a timing forecast.
A separate forward return scenario distribution that can differ materially from the fair-value gap.
Modeled 1Y expected return minus the current 1Y Treasury benchmark. Positive values indicate modeled return above the benchmark.
When available, this is the calibrated share of comparable historical starting regimes that beat the contemporaneous 1Y Treasury benchmark. Long-run base rates are not substituted for it.
Evidence-strength score displayed as a percentage for readability. It is not a probability that the valuation is correct.