Valuation Lens - August 13, 2026
China and emerging markets screen cheapest while U.S. equities remain expensive; fixed income stays close to its current yield anchor.
Valuation Lens - August 13, 2026
China and emerging markets lead value while U.S. equities remain expensive
WHAT THIS REPORT DOES How Valuation Lens estimates present fair value and identifies markets that look cheap, fair, or expensive.
Valuation Lens helps investors judge whether current market pricing looks cheap, fair, or expensive relative to modeled present fair value.
Each asset class is evaluated by comparing today’s market price with a distribution of defensible current economic values. That fair-value distribution is built from asset-specific fundamentals, expected growth and cash-flow progression, valuation relationships and multiples, interest-rate and real-yield conditions, historical valuation context, and other relevant economic anchors. The result is not a pure price target: it is a structured estimate of what the asset could reasonably be worth today under a range of economically defensible assumptions.
Where market price sits within the modeled fair-value distribution determines the valuation score: toward the lower tail means cheaper, toward the upper tail means more expensive, and near the center is closer to fair.
The report highlights fair-value gap, modeled expected return, expected edge versus the 1Y Treasury benchmark, and confidence in the valuation signal.
Use the valuation score and fair-value curve as a disciplined decision aid alongside risk, diversification, and time-horizon considerations.
Valuation opportunity map
Green = cheaper relative to modeled fair value. Red = more expensive. Tiles are ordered from cheaper to more expensive.
Detailed valuation dashboard
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, the chart shows the range of defensible current economic values.
| Asset class | Fair-value distribution | Valuation | Fair-value gap | 1Y expected | Expected edge vs 1Y Treasury | Val. confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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China & Hong Kong Equities
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+1.6 Cheap | +13.0% Fair 113 | +15.0% -20% to +48% | +11.0% Treasury 4.0% | 81% high |
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Emerging Markets Equities
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+1.4 Cheap | +11.0% Fair 111 | +13.0% -22% to +48% | +9.0% Treasury 4.0% | 79% moderate-high |
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Europe Equities
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+1.3 Cheap | +7.0% Fair 107 | +10.0% -17% to +36% | +6.0% Treasury 4.0% | 83% high |
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Fixed Income
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+0.8 Somewhat cheap | +1.0% Fair 101 | +4.8% -4% to +12% | +0.8% Treasury 4.0% | 90% high |
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Metals
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+0.4 Somewhat cheap | +2.0% Fair 102 | +5.0% -20% to +35% | +1.0% Treasury 4.0% | 77% moderate-high |
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Real Estate
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+0.2 Fair | +1.0% Fair 101 | +8.0% -18% to +34% | +4.0% Treasury 4.0% | 73% moderate-high |
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Japan Equities
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0.0 Fair | 0.0% Fair 100 | +9.0% -16% to +35% | +5.0% Treasury 4.0% | 83% high |
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Crypto
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0.0 Fair | +1.0% Fair 101 | +10.0% -48% to +85% | +6.0% Treasury 4.0% | 69% moderate-high |
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Developed Pacific Equities
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-0.4 Somewhat expensive | -2.0% Fair 98 | +7.0% -16% to +30% | +3.0% Treasury 4.0% | 79% moderate-high |
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Energy
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-1.0 Somewhat expensive | -6.0% Fair 94 | +1.0% -28% to +35% | -3.0% Treasury 4.0% | 80% high |
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US Equities
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-1.6 Expensive | -8.0% Fair 92 | +4.5% -18% to +26% | +0.5% Treasury 4.0% | 88% high |
1 China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI · Median fair value 113 Valuation +1.6 Cheap Fair-value gap +13.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +11.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 81% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Low forward earnings multiple and modest book-value multiple provide a valuation cushion.
- Forward earnings implied by the trailing-to-forward multiple gap support higher current economic value if estimates hold.
- The modeled discount requires earnings expectations to prove durable; no point-in-time forward-estimate history was supplied.
- A high global risk-free hurdle restrains justified equity multiples.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHIChina Broad Market | direct | 54.42 | 113 | +1.6 · Cheap | +15.0% |
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenario distribution using current fundamentals, asset-specific valuation anchors, and structured discount-rate context; no normality assumption.
Limitations: No complete point-in-time historical forward-fundamental panel was supplied; current fair-value scenarios therefore combine structured macro inputs with current verified valuation anchors.; Fair-value scenario shares are modeled value scenarios, not probabilities of future price appreciation.
Sources: MSCI
2 Emerging Markets Equities VWO · Median fair value 111 Valuation +1.4 Cheap Fair-value gap +11.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +9.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 79% moderate-high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- The forward multiple is low relative to developed-market peers, creating a meaningful valuation discount.
- The trailing-to-forward earnings gap implies substantial earnings normalization, though the model caps the benefit.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWOEmerging Markets Broad Index | direct | 60.34 | 111 | +1.4 · Cheap | +13.0% |
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenario distribution using current fundamentals, asset-specific valuation anchors, and structured discount-rate context; no normality assumption.
Limitations: No complete point-in-time historical forward-fundamental panel was supplied; current fair-value scenarios therefore combine structured macro inputs with current verified valuation anchors.; Fair-value scenario shares are modeled value scenarios, not probabilities of future price appreciation.
Sources: MSCI
3 Europe Equities VGK · Median fair value 107 Valuation +1.3 Cheap Fair-value gap +7.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +6.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 83% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped. Partial recent history.
- Forward valuation remains below U.S. large-cap valuation with a higher cash distribution yield.
- The forward/trailing multiple gap indicates improving earnings economics if estimates are realized.
- A 4% one-year Treasury hurdle and elevated real yields constrain justified multiple expansion.
- The valuation advantage narrows if expected earnings recovery disappoints.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGKEurope Broad Market | direct | 92.38 | 107 | +1.3 · Cheap | +10.0% |
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenario distribution using current fundamentals, asset-specific valuation anchors, and structured discount-rate context; no normality assumption.
Limitations: No complete point-in-time historical forward-fundamental panel was supplied; current fair-value scenarios therefore combine structured macro inputs with current verified valuation anchors.; Fair-value scenario shares are modeled value scenarios, not probabilities of future price appreciation.; Recent-price history for VGK ends on 2026-08-12 while the current snapshot is 2026-08-13.; Only 19 valid recent sessions were available for the representative benchmark.
Sources: MSCI
4 Fixed Income BND · Median fair value 101 Valuation +0.8 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +1.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +0.8% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 90% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Starting broad-bond yield is above the one-year Treasury hurdle, supporting carry.
- Moderate duration gives price upside if justified yields ease modestly.
- Investment-grade and high-yield spreads are tight versus their supplied recent histories, limiting credit valuation cushion.
- Duration creates mark-to-market downside if Treasury yields rise further.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNDUS Broad Bond Market | direct | 72.48 | 101 | +0.8 · Somewhat cheap | +4.8% |
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenario distribution using current fundamentals, asset-specific valuation anchors, and structured discount-rate context; no normality assumption.
Limitations: No complete point-in-time historical forward-fundamental panel was supplied; current fair-value scenarios therefore combine structured macro inputs with current verified valuation anchors.; Fair-value scenario shares are modeled value scenarios, not probabilities of future price appreciation.
Sources: Vanguard
5 Metals GLD · Median fair value 102 Valuation +0.4 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +2.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +1.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 77% moderate-high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Central-bank and investment demand remain structurally supportive in World Gold Council analysis.
- Current gold price is no longer at the January extreme, reducing part of the prior valuation stretch.
- Positive real yields remain a meaningful opportunity-cost headwind for non-yielding gold.
- World Gold Council notes that resilient growth, rising yields and calmer markets could produce further downside.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLDGold | direct | 398.96 | 102 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +5.0% |
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenario distribution using current fundamentals, asset-specific valuation anchors, and structured discount-rate context; no normality assumption.
Limitations: No complete point-in-time historical forward-fundamental panel was supplied; current fair-value scenarios therefore combine structured macro inputs with current verified valuation anchors.; Fair-value scenario shares are modeled value scenarios, not probabilities of future price appreciation.; Commodity fair value is sensitive to non-contractual supply-demand and macro assumptions, so dispersion remains wider than for contractual cash-flow assets.
Sources: World Gold Council · World Gold Council
6 Real Estate VNQ · Median fair value 101 Valuation +0.2 Fair Fair-value gap +1.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +4.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 73% moderate-high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Commercial property values have continued to recover, supporting underlying NAV economics.
- Listed equity REIT cash yield remains materially above the S&P 500 dividend yield.
- The 10-year Treasury yield remains above broad equity-REIT dividend yield, keeping financing and cap-rate pressure elevated.
- No broad machine-readable AFFO multiple or NAV-discount series was available in the supplied structured data, so fair-value dispersion is deliberately wide.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQUS Real Estate | direct | 98.58 | 101 | +0.2 · Fair | +8.0% |
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenario distribution using current fundamentals, asset-specific valuation anchors, and structured discount-rate context; no normality assumption.
Limitations: No complete point-in-time historical forward-fundamental panel was supplied; current fair-value scenarios therefore combine structured macro inputs with current verified valuation anchors.; Fair-value scenario shares are modeled value scenarios, not probabilities of future price appreciation.; Current broad REIT yield and property-price context are available, but a complete current AFFO/NAV panel for all supplied REIT segments is not.
Sources: Green Street · Nareit
7 Japan Equities EWJ · Median fair value 100 Valuation 0.0 Fair Fair-value gap 0.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +5.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 83% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Forward valuation is materially lower than the trailing multiple, indicating strong expected earnings progression.
- Broad profitability and shareholder-return reforms support a mid-teens justified forward multiple.
- The current multiple already discounts substantial forward earnings improvement.
- Higher global and domestic discount rates reduce room for valuation expansion.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWJJapan Broad Market | direct | 98.47 | 100 | 0.0 · Fair | +9.0% |
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenario distribution using current fundamentals, asset-specific valuation anchors, and structured discount-rate context; no normality assumption.
Limitations: No complete point-in-time historical forward-fundamental panel was supplied; current fair-value scenarios therefore combine structured macro inputs with current verified valuation anchors.; Fair-value scenario shares are modeled value scenarios, not probabilities of future price appreciation.
Sources: MSCI
8 Crypto BTC-USD · Median fair value 101 Valuation 0.0 Fair Fair-value gap +1.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +6.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 69% moderate-high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Spot is close to the median realized acquisition price, providing a current on-chain central-value anchor.
- Short-term holder cost basis is above spot, while aggregate realized price is below spot, creating a two-sided valuation range.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC-USDBitcoin | direct | 63,327.33 | 101 | 0.0 · Fair | +10.0% |
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenario distribution using current fundamentals, asset-specific valuation anchors, and structured discount-rate context; no normality assumption.
Limitations: No complete point-in-time historical forward-fundamental panel was supplied; current fair-value scenarios therefore combine structured macro inputs with current verified valuation anchors.; Fair-value scenario shares are modeled value scenarios, not probabilities of future price appreciation.; Crypto has no contractual cash-flow anchor and no universally accepted intrinsic-value framework; fair-value dispersion is intentionally wide.
9 Developed Pacific Equities EWA · Median fair value 98 Valuation -0.4 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -2.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +3.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 79% moderate-high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped. Partial recent history.
- Dividend income provides a meaningful portion of expected total return.
- Forward earnings improve the valuation picture relative to trailing multiples.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWAAustralia Broad Market | direct | 29.74 | 98 | -0.4 · Somewhat expensive | +7.0% |
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenario distribution using current fundamentals, asset-specific valuation anchors, and structured discount-rate context; no normality assumption.
Limitations: No complete point-in-time historical forward-fundamental panel was supplied; current fair-value scenarios therefore combine structured macro inputs with current verified valuation anchors.; Fair-value scenario shares are modeled value scenarios, not probabilities of future price appreciation.; Recent-price history for EWA ends on 2026-08-12 while the current snapshot is 2026-08-13.; Only 19 valid recent sessions were available for the representative benchmark.
10 Energy USO · Median fair value 94 Valuation -1.0 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -6.0% vs market 100 Expected edge -3.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 80% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Current oil economics remain above major Permian breakeven estimates, supporting producer cash generation.
- Near-term supply disruption keeps the Q3 Brent equilibrium estimate elevated.
- EIA expects Brent to ease from about $85 in Q3 to $78 in Q4 and $69 in 2027 as supply and inventories normalize.
- Commodity fair value remains highly sensitive to geopolitical supply assumptions and futures-curve normalization.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USOUS Crude Oil | direct | 125.03 | 94 | -1.0 · Somewhat expensive | +1.0% |
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenario distribution using current fundamentals, asset-specific valuation anchors, and structured discount-rate context; no normality assumption.
Limitations: No complete point-in-time historical forward-fundamental panel was supplied; current fair-value scenarios therefore combine structured macro inputs with current verified valuation anchors.; Fair-value scenario shares are modeled value scenarios, not probabilities of future price appreciation.; Commodity fair value is sensitive to non-contractual supply-demand and macro assumptions, so dispersion remains wider than for contractual cash-flow assets.
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration · U.S. Energy Information Administration
11 US Equities SPY · Median fair value 92 Valuation -1.6 Expensive Fair-value gap -8.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +0.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 88% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Forward earnings growth remains strong enough to offset part of the valuation premium.
- Current financial conditions remain relatively loose despite a positive risk-free hurdle.
- Shiller CAPE remains near the extreme end of modern history, limiting multiple-expansion room.
- A 4.0% one-year Treasury and 2.42% real 10-year yield raise the opportunity cost of equity duration.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPYUS Large-Cap Index | direct | 777.88 | 92 | -1.6 · Expensive | +4.5% |
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenario distribution using current fundamentals, asset-specific valuation anchors, and structured discount-rate context; no normality assumption.
Limitations: No complete point-in-time historical forward-fundamental panel was supplied; current fair-value scenarios therefore combine structured macro inputs with current verified valuation anchors.; Fair-value scenario shares are modeled value scenarios, not probabilities of future price appreciation.
Valuation instruments 11
China & Hong Kong Equities
MCHI · China Broad Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Low forward earnings multiple and modest book-value multiple provide a valuation cushion.
- Forward earnings implied by the trailing-to-forward multiple gap support higher current economic value if estimates hold.
- The modeled discount requires earnings expectations to prove durable; no point-in-time forward-estimate history was supplied.
- A high global risk-free hurdle restrains justified equity multiples.
Emerging Markets Equities
VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- The forward multiple is low relative to developed-market peers, creating a meaningful valuation discount.
- The trailing-to-forward earnings gap implies substantial earnings normalization, though the model caps the benefit.
- The large implied earnings rebound increases estimate risk and broadens the fair-value distribution.
- Country, currency and policy heterogeneity reduce confidence in one common fair-value anchor.
Europe Equities
VGK · Europe Broad Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped. Partial recent history.
- Forward valuation remains below U.S. large-cap valuation with a higher cash distribution yield.
- The forward/trailing multiple gap indicates improving earnings economics if estimates are realized.
- A 4% one-year Treasury hurdle and elevated real yields constrain justified multiple expansion.
- The valuation advantage narrows if expected earnings recovery disappoints.
Fixed Income
BND · US Broad Bond Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Starting broad-bond yield is above the one-year Treasury hurdle, supporting carry.
- Moderate duration gives price upside if justified yields ease modestly.
- Investment-grade and high-yield spreads are tight versus their supplied recent histories, limiting credit valuation cushion.
- Duration creates mark-to-market downside if Treasury yields rise further.
Metals
GLD · Gold
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Central-bank and investment demand remain structurally supportive in World Gold Council analysis.
- Current gold price is no longer at the January extreme, reducing part of the prior valuation stretch.
- Positive real yields remain a meaningful opportunity-cost headwind for non-yielding gold.
- World Gold Council notes that resilient growth, rising yields and calmer markets could produce further downside.
Real Estate
VNQ · US Real Estate
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Commercial property values have continued to recover, supporting underlying NAV economics.
- Listed equity REIT cash yield remains materially above the S&P 500 dividend yield.
- The 10-year Treasury yield remains above broad equity-REIT dividend yield, keeping financing and cap-rate pressure elevated.
- No broad machine-readable AFFO multiple or NAV-discount series was available in the supplied structured data, so fair-value dispersion is deliberately wide.
Japan Equities
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Forward valuation is materially lower than the trailing multiple, indicating strong expected earnings progression.
- Broad profitability and shareholder-return reforms support a mid-teens justified forward multiple.
- The current multiple already discounts substantial forward earnings improvement.
- Higher global and domestic discount rates reduce room for valuation expansion.
Crypto
BTC-USD · Bitcoin
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Spot is close to the median realized acquisition price, providing a current on-chain central-value anchor.
- Short-term holder cost basis is above spot, while aggregate realized price is below spot, creating a two-sided valuation range.
- Crypto lacks contractual cash flows and a universally accepted intrinsic-value framework; model dispersion is intentionally very wide.
- On-chain cost-basis measures describe holder economics, not a guaranteed floor or forward price target.
Developed Pacific Equities
EWA · Australia Broad Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped. Partial recent history.
- Dividend income provides a meaningful portion of expected total return.
- Forward earnings improve the valuation picture relative to trailing multiples.
- Forward multiples remain demanding relative to the global risk-free hurdle.
- Australia-heavy financial and resource exposure makes justified value sensitive to commodity and credit assumptions.
Energy
USO · US Crude Oil
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Current oil economics remain above major Permian breakeven estimates, supporting producer cash generation.
- Near-term supply disruption keeps the Q3 Brent equilibrium estimate elevated.
- EIA expects Brent to ease from about $85 in Q3 to $78 in Q4 and $69 in 2027 as supply and inventories normalize.
- Commodity fair value remains highly sensitive to geopolitical supply assumptions and futures-curve normalization.
US Equities
SPY · US Large-Cap Index
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Forward earnings growth remains strong enough to offset part of the valuation premium.
- Current financial conditions remain relatively loose despite a positive risk-free hurdle.
- Shiller CAPE remains near the extreme end of modern history, limiting multiple-expansion room.
- A 4.0% one-year Treasury and 2.42% real 10-year yield raise the opportunity cost of equity duration.
Where current market price (100) sits within the modeled fair-value distribution. Positive = cheaper; negative = more expensive.
Median modeled fair value relative to today’s price. It is not an expected return or a timing forecast.
A separate forward return scenario distribution that can differ materially from the fair-value gap.
Modeled 1Y expected return minus the current 1Y Treasury benchmark. Positive values indicate modeled return above the benchmark.
When available, this is the calibrated share of comparable historical starting regimes that beat the contemporaneous 1Y Treasury benchmark. Long-run base rates are not substituted for it.
Evidence-strength score displayed as a percentage for readability. It is not a probability that the valuation is correct.