Metals

A specialist publisher citing World Gold Council data reports that the People's Bank of China bought 23 tonnes of gold in September, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023 and its 23rd straight month of buying, lifting official holdings to 2,410 tonnes. Chinese gold ETFs added 11 tonnes to a record 304 tonnes, with third-quarter inflows of $3.9 billion.

Why it matters here: Price-insensitive official buying and record Chinese ETF holdings give the gold fund and the gold miners a source of demand that does not depend on Western real yields.

Counterpoint: Western investors, who face 10-year Treasury yields above 5%, still set the marginal price, and the purchase figures come from a single specialist report rather than from the central bank itself.

Fed Chair Warsh said in Bangkok that he does not 'prejudge meetings', and traders read his comments as pointing to a hold at the 27-28 October meeting. CNBC reports futures implied about an 82% chance of a hold by Friday's close, and CoinDesk reports October hike odds fell to about 15% from nearly 45% after the CPI.

Why it matters here: A lower expected policy rate and a softer dollar reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding metal, which supports the gold and silver funds and, through operating leverage, the gold miners.

Counterpoint: Goldman Sachs still expects a final hike in December, so this is a delay rather than a change of direction, and long Treasury yields above 5% continue to compete with bullion for safe-haven money.

China's September imports rose 31.0% from a year earlier to $313.65 billion, against a consensus of 23.79%, while exports rose 36.3%. The trade surplus widened to $133.53 billion from $119.1 billion in August.

Why it matters here: China is the marginal buyer of copper and other industrial metals, so a jump in its import bill supports the copper and base-metals funds and the diversified miners.

Counterpoint: Import values are inflated by higher commodity prices rather than volumes, and copper futures fell for three straight sessions this week after a record; the figures also rest on one newspaper's report of the customs data.

The Treasury's final monthly statement for fiscal 2026 shows a deficit of $1.992 trillion, up from $1.775 trillion in fiscal 2025, with net interest outlays above $1 trillion according to CNBC. September alone showed a $27 billion deficit, against a $198 billion surplus a year earlier.

Why it matters here: Persistent deficits financed at rising interest cost strengthen the case for assets outside the sovereign-debt system, a structural support for gold rather than for the industrial metals.

Counterpoint: The size of the deficit was largely expected from monthly data, and in the near term the high real yields that deficits help produce weigh more on gold than fiscal worries add to it.

Base metals recovered on Friday: LME copper rose 0.1% to $14,365 a tonne, aluminium 0.8% to $3,010 and zinc 0.6% to $3,685. Copper had settled at a record $14,822 on 12 October before three straight declines in Comex futures. Anglo American's chief executive told the Financial Times that technology companies are seeking equity stakes in miners to secure copper supply.

Why it matters here: A new class of strategic buyer for copper supply supports copper prices and, more directly, the valuations of the miners in the global metals and mining fund.

Counterpoint: Citi is only neutral on copper and aluminium near term, and an AI capital-spending pullback, the same worry now hitting chip stocks, would undercut the AI-driven copper demand story.

Alcoa reported third-quarter net income of $483 million ($1.81 a share), up from $407 million, on revenue of $3.704 billion, and reaffirmed its full-year guidance. The shares rose more than 2% before Friday's open, and aluminium on the London Metal Exchange rebounded 0.8% to $3,010 a tonne from its lowest close this year.

Why it matters here: Healthy producer profits and steady guidance ease fears of an aluminium demand slump, which supports the base-metals fund and mining equities.

Counterpoint: Revenue fell from $3.966 billion, the realised aluminium price fell to $4,527 a tonne from $4,752 and adjusted EBITDA dropped to $789 million from $901 million, pointing to softening prices beneath the headline profit.