Real Estate
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VNQ · US Real Estate
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 42.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 102.0
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- Last close
- $95.73
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-06
58/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +30.6%
- P75
- +19.6%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -4.6%
- P10
- -15.6%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Distribution yield (~3.9%, estimated) plus ~3% AFFO growth plus partial convergence toward median fair value, with an 18-point annual volatility band; normal approximation.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +10.5%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -2.0%
Income plus AFFO growth with modest cap-rate change over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- +3.2%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled median 1-year return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $95.73 | +7.5% |
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $26.95 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $17.20 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $94.87 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $27.92 | — |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | —Unavailable | — | $44.00 | — |