Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 24.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 76% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 109.5
- Upside to median
- +9.5%
- Last close
- $55.29
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +35.1%
- P75
- +23.0%
- Median
- +9.5%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -16.1%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (~2.2%) plus haircut consensus earnings growth plus one-third convergence toward median fair value, with a 20-point annual volatility band; normal approximation.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.5%
- P75
- +13.5%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -3.5%
Income plus cycle-adjusted earnings growth with partial multiple normalisation over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- +5.2%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled median 1-year return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +1.6Cheap | 109.5 | $55.29 | +9.5% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $85.35 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $89.24 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $137.01 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $31.98 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $67.06 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $50.89 | — |