China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 26.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 74% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 108.5
- Upside to median
- +8.5%
- Last close
- $51.96
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +34.6%
- P75
- +22.5%
- Median
- +9.0%
- P25
- -4.5%
- P10
- -16.6%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (~2.6%) plus ~6% nominal earnings growth plus one-quarter convergence toward median fair value, with a 20-point annual volatility band; normal approximation.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +19.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -4.0%
Income plus nominal earnings growth with partial re-rating spread over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- +4.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled median 1-year return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +1.4Cheap | 108.5 | $51.96 | +9.0% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $24.60 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $3.99 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $30.50 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $16.87 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $40.19 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $23.32 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $34.95 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.88 | — |