Real Estate
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VNQ · US Real Estate
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 75.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.8
- Upside to median
- -7.3%
- Last close
- $95.06
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-11-02
66/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -15.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Distribution yield (about 3.8%) plus mid-single-digit FFO growth less partial convergence toward median fair value, with dispersion scaled to REIT volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -4.0%
Income plus NOI growth with gradual widening of the cap-rate spread.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.38%
- Modeled excess
- +2.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled expected edge over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return, and return dispersion is wide.
Instruments
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | -1.5Expensive | 92.8 | $95.06 | +6.5% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | —Unavailable | — | $43.64 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $92.46 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $27.77 | — |
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $26.69 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $17.37 | — |