Europe Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VGK · Europe Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 40.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 59% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 102.6
- Upside to median
- +2.6%
- Last close
- $88.06
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-11-02
67/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +8.5%
- P25
- -1.0%
- P10
- -12.0%
72% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend and buyback yield (about 3.4%) plus haircut earnings growth plus partial convergence toward median fair value, in U.S. dollar terms with currency risk inside the dispersion.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +11.5%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +3.5%
- P10
- -1.5%
Income plus normalized mid-single-digit earnings growth with gradual valuation convergence.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.38%
- Modeled excess
- +4.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled expected edge over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments