Emerging Markets Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 36.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 63% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 104.8
- Upside to median
- +4.8%
- Last close
- $55.70
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-02
60/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +30.0%
- P75
- +20.0%
- Median
- +9.5%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -15.0%
71% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (2.0%) plus haircut earnings growth plus partial convergence toward median fair value, with dispersion scaled to emerging-market equity volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +12.5%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- -3.0%
Income plus normalized earnings growth after the current cyclical upswing, with gradual valuation convergence.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.38%
- Modeled excess
- +5.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled expected edge over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return, and return dispersion is wide.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 104.8 | $55.70 | +9.5% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $89.70 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $100.66 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $151.62 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $48.45 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $32.16 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $62.93 | — |