Developed Pacific Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
EWA · Australia Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 79.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 91.4
- Upside to median
- -8.6%
- Last close
- $29.43
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-02
64/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -14.0%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (3.6%) plus mid-single-digit earnings growth less partial convergence toward median fair value, in U.S. dollar terms with currency risk inside the dispersion.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -3.5%
Income plus earnings growth with gradual multiple compression.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.38%
- Modeled excess
- +1.1%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled edge over the 1-year Treasury is small next to equity return dispersion; the Treasury offers a competitive return with far lower uncertainty.