China & Hong Kong Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
MCHI · China Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 36.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 63% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 105.1
- Upside to median
- +5.1%
- Last close
- $49.59
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-02
61/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +33.0%
- P75
- +21.5%
- Median
- +9.0%
- P25
- -4.5%
- P10
- -20.0%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (2.4%) plus haircut consensus earnings growth plus partial (about one-quarter) convergence toward median fair value, with dispersion scaled to China equity volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.0%
- P75
- +12.5%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -6.0%
Income plus normalized earnings growth with gradual valuation convergence; dispersion reduced for a multi-year horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.38%
- Modeled excess
- +4.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled expected edge over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return, and return dispersion is wide.
Instruments
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 105.1 | $49.59 | +9.0% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $33.21 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $23.35 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $38.50 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $15.80 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $30.18 | — |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $23.42 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $3.69 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $22.55 | — |