Europe Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VGK · Europe Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 67.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 95.0
- Upside to median
- -5.0%
- Last close
- $87.31
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-10-28
73/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +21.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -1.5%
- P10
- -11.0%
70% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield about 2.9% plus buybacks about 1% and ex-energy EPS growth near 5%, less a small partial-convergence drag toward the median fair value.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -3.0%
Shareholder yield plus sustainable earnings growth with partial normalization of the multiple.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +2.0%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWG Germany Index | —Unavailable | — | $41.80 | — |
| EWL Switzerland Index | —Unavailable | — | $63.22 | — |
| EWQ France Index | —Unavailable | — | $41.85 | — |
| EWU United Kingdom Index | —Unavailable | — | $47.29 | — |
| EZU Eurozone Equity Index | —Unavailable | — | $65.72 | — |
| VGK Europe Broad Market | -1.1Somewhat expensive | 95.0 | $87.31 | +6.5% |