Emerging Markets Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 52.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 48% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 99.0
- Upside to median
- -1.0%
- Last close
- $57.02
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-10-28
67/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +28.0%
- P75
- +18.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -16.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield about 2% plus earnings growth after haircutting peak-cycle semiconductor estimates, with no valuation-convergence term because the benchmark sits near median fair value.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.5%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -5.0%
Income plus normalized earnings growth; cyclical earnings mean reversion widens the lower tail.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +2.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $94.47 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $108.94 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $165.91 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $33.62 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $64.36 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $46.79 | — |
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | -0.1Fair | 99.0 | $57.02 | +7.0% |