Real Estate
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VNQ · US Real Estate
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 54.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 99.0
- Upside to median
- -1.0%
- Last close
- $93.81
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-09-21
63/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +30.1%
- P75
- +19.1%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -5.1%
- P10
- -16.1%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Building blocks: about 3.9% distribution yield plus about 3-4% normalized FFO growth with no valuation convergence; dispersion from REIT volatility and rate sensitivity.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +19.9%
- P75
- +13.6%
- Median
- +6.6%
- P25
- -0.4%
- P10
- -6.7%
Building blocks over three years with FFO growth normalizing from recent highs.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.45%
- Expected excess
- +2.6%
- Basis
- proxy
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $26.46 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $19.76 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $90.30 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $30.13 | — |
| VNQ US Real Estate | -0.2Fair | 99.0 | $93.81 | +7.0% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | —Unavailable | — | $42.59 | — |