Europe Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VGK · Europe Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 40.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 59% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 102.6
- Upside to median
- +2.6%
- Last close
- $89.24
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-09-21
62/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +29.6%
- P75
- +19.3%
- Median
- +7.8%
- P25
- -3.7%
- P10
- -14.0%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Building blocks: about 3.2% dividend yield plus about 5% forward EPS growth plus small partial valuation convergence; dispersion from European equity volatility in USD terms.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +19.9%
- P75
- +13.9%
- Median
- +7.3%
- P25
- +0.7%
- P10
- -5.3%
Building blocks with one-third valuation convergence over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.45%
- Expected excess
- +3.4%
- Basis
- proxy
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments