Europe Equities
Data cutoff intraday
Modeled fair value
VGK · Europe Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 35.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 57% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 104.0
- Upside to median
- +4.0%
- Last close
- $92.10
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-08-17
80/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
blended- P90
- +27.0%
- P75
- +18.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -15.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario distribution combining economic-output/carry assumptions with partial valuation convergence; not a price target.
Three years, annualised
blended- P90
- +18.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -4.0%
Annualized multi-year scenario model using sustainable fundamentals/carry and partial valuation normalization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 3.98%
- Expected excess
- +3.0%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current annual hurdle; expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed. DTB1YR is retained on a discount basis.
Instruments
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK Europe Broad Market | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $92.10 | +7.0% |
| EZU Eurozone Equity Index | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $71.88 | +7.0% |
| EWU United Kingdom Index | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $48.16 | +7.0% |
| EWG Germany Index | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $43.96 | +7.0% |
| EWQ France Index | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $47.14 | +7.0% |
| EWL Switzerland Index | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $62.92 | +7.0% |