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Market Lens — August 3, 2026

Global equities lead while rates and metals remain cautious

The medium-term cross-asset picture is broadly balanced, with an overall Market Lens score of 0.1. Developed Pacific Equities and Japan Equities offer the clearest favorable conditions, while Metals and Crypto carry the greatest caution. Technical strength conflicts with adverse News & Events evidence in Europe Equities and Real Estate, limiting confidence in the durability of those trends. Restrictive policy, Treasury supply, weaker China activity, and shifting energy-supply risk remain the principal cross-asset forces.

Explains: conditionsDescribes present conditions and the evidence behind them — for insight and context.

Last market session Data cutoff intraday
Overall — medium term
+0.1Balanced
4
Supportive
4
Balanced
3
Cautious
Latest session

Mixed · Normal risk · 40 up / 25 down

The board

Every asset class, both branches

Switch between the medium-term regime and the latest session, sort by whichever branch you care about, and open a row for its evidence.

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  • 3 instruments · 6 forces
    +1.8
    Uptrend· 60% wt
    0.0
    high· 40% wt
    +1.1
    Favorable
    Trend up · news flat
    1.8 apart
  • 5 instruments · 5 forces
    +1.2
    Uptrend· 60% wt
    +0.7
    high· 40% wt
    +1.0
    Favorable
    Both positive
    0.5 apart
  • 6 instruments · 6 forces
    +1.6
    Uptrend· 60% wt
    -0.6
    high· 40% wt
    +0.7
    Favorable
    Trend up · news down
    2.2 apart
  • 10 instruments · 6 forces
    +1.1
    Uptrend· 60% wt
    -0.6
    high· 40% wt
    +0.4
    Favorable
    Trend up · news down
    1.7 apart
  • 6 instruments · 6 forces
    +1.1
    Uptrend· 60% wt
    -1.0
    high· 40% wt
    +0.3
    Balanced
    Trend up · news down
    2.1 apart
  • 5 instruments · 5 forces
    +0.9
    Uptrend· 60% wt
    -0.7
    high· 40% wt
    +0.3
    Balanced
    Trend up · news down
    1.6 apart
  • 10 instruments · 5 forces
    +0.3
    Sideways· 60% wt
    -0.9
    high· 40% wt
    -0.2
    Balanced
    Trend flat · news down
    1.2 apart
  • 7 instruments · 6 forces
    -0.2
    Sideways· 60% wt
    -0.1
    high· 40% wt
    -0.2
    Balanced
    Both neutral
    0.1 apart
  • 7 instruments · 6 forces
    -0.1
    Sideways· 60% wt
    -1.2
    high· 40% wt
    -0.5
    Cautious
    Trend flat · news down
    1.1 apart
  • 6 instruments · 5 forces
    -1.3
    Downtrend· 60% wt
    -0.2
    high· 40% wt
    -0.9
    Cautious
    Trend down · news flat
    1.1 apart
  • 7 instruments · 5 forces
    -0.9
    Mixed· 60% wt
    -1.1
    high· 40% wt
    -1.0
    Cautious
    Both negative
    0.2 apart

Scores run −3 to +3. Technical and News & Events are scored independently and weighted into the combined read; the signal names how the two branches relate and how far apart they sit, rather than averaging the disagreement away.

Cross-asset

Themes moving more than one market

5 themes

Federal Reserve holds rates with three dissenters favoring a hike

The FOMC kept the federal funds target at 3.50%–3.75%. Three members preferred a 25 basis point increase, while the statement said inflation remained elevated and economic activity was expanding at a solid pace. Across the supplied universe, this event weighs on Crypto, Emerging Markets Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and others.

6 markets6 forces1 source

China July PMIs fall below 50

China's official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 from 50.3, non-manufacturing activity fell to 49.0 from 50.2, and the composite output index fell to 49.3. Across the supplied universe, this event weighs on China & Hong Kong Equities, Developed Pacific Equities, Emerging Markets Equities, Energy and others.

6 markets6 forces1 source

U.S. pauses planned Iran strike as diplomacy is discussed

President Trump canceled a planned attack on Iran and expressed support for talks; Iran disputed that negotiations were under way. Oil prices fell sharply, while shipping disruptions and threats around Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb remained active. Across the supplied universe, this event supports China & Hong Kong Equities, Developed Pacific Equities, Emerging Markets Equities, Europe Equities and others; weighs on Energy, Metals.

10 markets10 forces1 source

U.S. Q2 growth slows while domestic private demand remains firm

U.S. real GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2, down from 2.1% in Q1. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 3.9%, while the gross domestic purchases price index rose 5.7%. Across the supplied universe, this event supports Emerging Markets Equities, Energy, Real Estate, US Equities; weighs on Fixed Income.

5 markets5 forces1 source

China Q2 growth slows to 4.3% with uneven sector performance

China's Q2 GDP grew 4.3% year over year, down from 5.0% in Q1. Information technology services grew 10.8%, while real-estate value added fell 0.2% and construction fell 4.1%. Across the supplied universe, this event supports Developed Pacific Equities, Emerging Markets Equities, Energy, Metals; weighs on China & Hong Kong Equities, Real Estate.

6 markets6 forces1 source
Single-day session detail

Single-day price breadth is positive overall, with 40 advancing symbols versus 25 declining, but cross-asset direction remains mixed. Fresh News & Events pressure is also mixed, while combined risk is normal; Energy is the clearest single-day risk and Europe Equities and US Equities show the strongest opportunities. Energy's bearish single-day setup diverges sharply from its balanced medium-term view, while the China and Hong Kong read remains partial because underlying session dates differ.

Direction
Mixed
0.0
Opportunity
Balanced
0.0
Risk
Normal
+1.4
Breadth
58.8%
40 up · 25 down
Sources20

Every news-derived score in this report traces back to one of these documents.

  1. 1
    Oil prices drop 7% to three-week low after Trump cancels attack on Iran
    Reuters
  2. 2
    OPEC+ oil output hike is irrelevant for now, not for later
    Reuters
  3. 3
    Treasury Announces Marketable Borrowing Estimates
    U.S. Department of the TreasuryPrimary
  4. 4
    Purchasing Managers’ Index for July 2026
    National Bureau of Statistics of ChinaPrimary
  5. 5
    HKEX Launches 5-Year China Government Bond Futures
    Hong Kong Exchanges and ClearingPrimary
  6. 6
    Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
    Federal Reserve BoardPrimary
  7. 7
    GDP (Advance Estimate), 2nd Quarter 2026
    U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisPrimary
  8. 8
    Personal Income and Outlays, June 2026
    U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisPrimary
  9. 9
    Monetary policy decisions
    European Central BankPrimary
  10. 10
    Euro area annual inflation up to 2.9%
    EurostatPrimary
  11. 11
    Bank Rate maintained at 3.75% - July 2026 Monetary Policy Summary
    Bank of EnglandPrimary
  12. 12
    Statement on Monetary Policy
    Bank of JapanPrimary
  13. 13
    Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (July 2026)
    Bank of JapanPrimary
  14. 14
    OCR increased to 2.50% to return inflation to 2%
    Reserve Bank of New ZealandPrimary
  15. 15
    MAS Monetary Policy Statement - July 2026
    Monetary Authority of SingaporePrimary
  16. 16
    Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Second Quarter and the First Half of 2026
    National Bureau of Statistics of ChinaPrimary
  17. 17
    SEC Clarifies the Application of Federal Securities Laws to Crypto Assets
    U.S. Securities and Exchange CommissionPrimary
  18. 18
    Coinbase Q2 Earnings: Everything Exchange Drives 3rd Consecutive Quarter of Record Crypto Trading Volume Market Share
    Coinbase GlobalPrimary
  19. 19
    Glamsterdam
    Ethereum.orgPrimary
  20. 20
    Latest business and consumer surveys
    European CommissionPrimary
Methodology
cxpw_market_lens_consolidation_v2.0
Schema version
2.0.0
Run ID
2026-08-03_market-lens_171800-et

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.