---
title: "Valuation Lens — November 15, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-11-15"
data_cutoff: "2026-11-15T07:00:00Z"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "valuation-lens-2026-11-15-261115001"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-11-15/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — November 15, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Nov 15, 2026, 2:00 AM EST  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.65% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**China & Hong Kong and emerging-market equities screen cheapest against today's fair value; US equities, oil and REITs screen most expensive against a 4.65% 1-year Treasury hurdle.**

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.65% sets a high cash hurdle, with 10-year nominal and real yields of 5.15% and 2.91% near the top of their 10-year ranges.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +2.0 | Cheap | 109.3 | 102.7–116.2 | +9.3% | +8.0% | +3.4% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +1.6 | Cheap | 107.3 | 100.7–114.2 | +7.3% | +8.0% | +3.4% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +1.0 | Somewhat cheap | 101.5 | 99.1–103.9 | +1.5% | +5.6% | +1.0% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | +0.8 | Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | 96.9–109.1 | +3.0% | +7.0% | +2.4% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +0.6 | Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | 96.6–107.4 | +2.0% | +6.5% | +1.9% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | +0.2 | Fair | 102.0 | 85.1–118.9 | +2.0% | +4.0% | -0.7% |
| Metals | GLD | -1.4 | Expensive | 91.0 | 81.6–100.4 | -9.0% | +3.0% | -1.7% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.4 | Expensive | 95.0 | 89.6–100.4 | -5.0% | +5.0% | +0.4% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -1.6 | Expensive | 92.7 | 85.8–99.3 | -7.3% | +4.0% | -0.7% |
| Energy | USO | -1.7 | Expensive | 89.2 | 81.1–98.2 | -10.8% | -6.0% | -10.7% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.8 | Expensive | 91.7 | 84.8–98.3 | -8.3% | +5.0% | +0.4% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +2.0 (Cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 97.0, P25 102.7, median 109.3, P75 116.2, P90 122.7. The market price sits at the 16.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.0%, P10 -20.0% to P90 +33.0%. Building-block model: about 3% distribution yield plus mid-single-digit consensus earnings growth plus partial (roughly one-third) convergence toward median fair value, with a wide dispersion reflecting policy, property and geopolitical risk.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +1.6 (Cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 95.0, P25 100.7, median 107.3, P75 114.2, P90 120.7. The market price sits at the 22.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.0%, P10 -15.0% to P90 +28.0%. Building-block model: about 3% dividend yield plus haircut consensus earnings growth plus partial convergence toward median fair value, less a currency-risk allowance; wide dispersion for cyclical semiconductor earnings.

### Fixed Income — +1.0 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 97.0, P25 99.1, median 101.5, P75 103.9, P90 106.0. The market price sits at the 33.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.6%, P10 -1.0% to P90 +11.0%. Starting yield of roughly 5.2% (estimated from the Treasury curve plus aggregate-index spread, not a verified fund YTM) plus duration-weighted price change across the fair-value yield scenarios.

**Probability note:** the 58% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Japan Equities — +0.8 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 91.5, P25 96.9, median 103.0, P75 109.1, P90 114.5. The market price sits at the 36.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -12.0% to P90 +25.0%. Building-block model in US dollars: about 2.5% dividend yield plus buybacks, mid-single-digit earnings growth and modest convergence toward fair value, with an explicit yen-translation risk band.

### Europe Equities — +0.6 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 91.8, P25 96.6, median 102.0, P75 107.4, P90 112.3. The market price sits at the 40.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -11.0% to P90 +22.0%. Building-block model in US dollars: about 3.2% dividend yield plus low-to-mid-single-digit earnings growth and small convergence toward fair value, with a euro and sterling translation band.

### Crypto — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 70.0, P25 85.1, median 102.0, P75 118.9, P90 134.0. The market price sits at the 46.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.0%, P10 -45.0% to P90 +70.0%. Scenario model around the realized-value anchor with very wide dispersion; no income or carry component.

### Metals — -1.4 (Expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 73.1, P25 81.6, median 91.0, P75 100.4, P90 108.9. The market price sits at the 74.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.0%, P10 -18.0% to P90 +24.0%. Scenario model: central-bank demand supports price while high real yields and partial valuation convergence weigh on it; no income component.

**Probability note:** the 46% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 71%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.4 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.8, P25 89.6, median 95.0, P75 100.4, P90 105.3. The market price sits at the 73.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -12.0% to P90 +21.0%. Building-block model in US dollars: about 3.5% dividend yield plus low-to-mid-single-digit earnings growth, less partial convergence toward a lower fair value, with an Australian-dollar translation band.

### Real Estate — -1.6 (Expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 79.3, P25 85.8, median 92.7, P75 99.3, P90 105.0. The market price sits at the 77.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.0%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +20.0%. Building-block model: about 3.8% dividend yield plus about 3% cash-flow growth, less partial convergence toward a lower fair value.

### Energy — -1.7 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 74.5, P25 81.1, median 89.2, P75 98.2, P90 106.8. The market price sits at the 79.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -6.0%, P10 -35.0% to P90 +25.0%. Futures-based return model: spot path along the supply-normalization scenarios, plus estimated roll yield from a backwardated curve and collateral interest; very wide dispersion for supply shocks.

**Probability note:** the 31% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### US Equities — -1.8 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 78.3, P25 84.8, median 91.7, P75 98.3, P90 104.0. The market price sits at the 80.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -16.0% to P90 +22.0%. Building-block model: about 1.1% dividend yield plus about 7% earnings growth (below consensus to reflect record margins), less partial (roughly one-third) convergence toward median fair value.

## Sources

1. Lowest Forward 12-Month P/E Ratio For the S&P 500 in More Than 3 Years — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/lowest-forward-12-month-p/e-ratio-for-the-sp-500-in-more-than-3-years
2. P/E Ratios by Country 2026 (data through 31 October 2026) — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/pe-ratios-by-country/
3. Emerging Markets P/E & Valuations 2026 (data through 31 October 2026) — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/emerging-markets-valuations/
4. EIA sees Brent near $100/bbl through yearend 2026 as Middle East supply constraints persist — Oil & Gas Journal (reporting the U.S. EIA November 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook) — https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/economics-markets/news/55418180/eia-sees-brent-near-100-bbl-through-yearend-2026-as-middle-east-supply-constraints-persist
5. Gold Demand Trends: Q3 2026 Outlook — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q3-2026/outlook
6. REITs Rebounded in October, Leading Broader Equities — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/news/blog/market-commentary/reits-rebounded-october-leading-broader-equities
7. Market Pulse November 2026 — Goldman Sachs Asset Management — https://am.gs.com/en-us/advisors/insights/article/market-pulse
8. Bitcoin Falls Below Its One-Year Median — Axel Adler Jr. — https://axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-falls-below-its-one-year-median.md

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.