---
title: "Valuation Lens — November 14, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-11-14"
data_cutoff: "2026-11-14T07:02:44Z"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "valuation-lens-2026-11-14-r1"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-11-14/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — November 14, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Nov 14, 2026, 2:02 AM EST  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.65% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Crude oil, U.S. equities and Developed Pacific equities screen expensive against today's fair-value estimates, bonds screen modestly cheap, and a 4.65% one-year Treasury leaves thin expected edges for most risk assets.**

The 1-year Treasury pays 4.65% on an investment basis while 10-year nominal and real yields of 5.15% and 2.91% sit near two-decade highs, a demanding hurdle for every risk asset.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Fixed Income | BND | +1.0 | Somewhat cheap | 101.2 | 99.3–103.0 | +1.2% | +5.3% | +0.7% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | +0.4 | Somewhat cheap | 101.4 | 95.5–107.0 | +1.4% | +7.0% | +2.4% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +0.4 | Somewhat cheap | 101.7 | 94.1–109.0 | +1.7% | +8.0% | +3.4% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | +0.1 | Fair | 100.4 | 93.9–106.7 | +0.4% | +7.0% | +2.4% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +0.1 | Fair | 100.6 | 93.0–108.5 | +0.6% | +8.0% | +3.4% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | -0.2 | Fair | 98.3 | 83.6–115.0 | -1.7% | — | — |
| Europe Equities | VGK | -1.0 | Somewhat expensive | 96.4 | 90.5–102.0 | -3.6% | +6.5% | +1.9% |
| Metals | GLD | -1.2 | Somewhat expensive | 93.1 | 83.7–102.0 | -6.9% | 0.0% | -4.7% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.8 | Expensive | 91.6 | 85.3–98.1 | -8.4% | +4.5% | -0.2% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.9 | Expensive | 93.4 | 88.2–98.3 | -6.6% | +6.0% | +1.4% |
| Energy | USO | -2.2 | Expensive | 86.5 | 79.4–94.4 | -13.5% | 0.0% | -4.7% |

### Fixed Income — +1.0 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 97.5, P25 99.3, median 101.2, P75 103.0, P90 104.6. The market price sits at the 33.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.3%, P10 -1.7% to P90 +11.7%. Starting aggregate yield-to-worst near 5.3% (carry) plus a small valuation contribution, with duration-driven dispersion of about 5 points; asymmetric because rate rises from here would come with higher inflation risk.

**Probability note:** the 55% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Japan Equities — +0.4 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 90.2, P25 95.5, median 101.4, P75 107.0, P90 112.0. The market price sits at the 43.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -13.5% to P90 +26.2%. About 2.3% dividend yield plus 5% nominal earnings growth and a small positive valuation contribution; the spread reflects higher recent Japanese equity volatility and currency exposure for a dollar investor.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +0.4 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.0, P25 94.1, median 101.7, P75 109.0, P90 115.3. The market price sits at the 43.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.0%, P10 -17.6% to P90 +31.1%. About 3% dividend yield plus 6% earnings growth after a cyclical haircut, with a small valuation tailwind; the wide spread reflects concentration in Korea and Taiwan and sensitivity to the dollar.

### Real Estate — +0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.9, P25 93.9, median 100.4, P75 106.7, P90 112.3. The market price sits at the 48.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -16.1% to P90 +27.5%. About 4% dividend yield plus 4.5% AFFO growth, less a 1.5-point drag from private-market NAV markdowns; the spread reflects REIT sensitivity to long-term rates.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 86.2, P25 93.0, median 100.6, P75 108.5, P90 115.7. The market price sits at the 47.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.0%, P10 -22.8% to P90 +36.2%. About 3% dividend yield and 1.5% buybacks plus 4% earnings growth; the very wide spread reflects policy, property and geopolitical risk.

### Crypto — -0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 71.5, P25 83.6, median 98.3, P75 115.0, P90 130.9. The market price sits at the 52.8th percentile of that distribution.

### Europe Equities — -1.0 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.2, P25 90.5, median 96.4, P75 102.0, P90 107.0. The market price sits at the 66.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -12.7% to P90 +23.2%. About 3.3% dividend yield plus 4.5% earnings growth, less a 1.3-point drag from partial convergence toward median fair value; the spread reflects regional equity volatility.

### Metals — -1.2 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 74.9, P25 83.7, median 93.1, P75 102.0, P90 109.6. The market price sits at the 69.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median 0.0%, P10 -20.5% to P90 +23.1%. No income; partial convergence toward the median fair value offset by inflation drift and steady official buying; the wide spread reflects gold's volatility.

**Probability note:** the 40% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 71%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.8 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 79.8, P25 85.3, median 91.6, P75 98.1, P90 104.1. The market price sits at the 80.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.5%, P10 -14.7% to P90 +21.2%. About 3.5% dividend yield plus 3.5% earnings growth, less a 2.5-point annual drag from partial multiple normalization; the spread reflects regional equity volatility.

### US Equities — -1.9 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.5, P25 88.2, median 93.4, P75 98.3, P90 102.7. The market price sits at the 81.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -13.2% to P90 +22.7%. Building blocks: about 1.2% dividend yield, 7% per-share earnings growth after a haircut to consensus, and a 2-point annual drag from partial convergence toward median fair value; the asymmetric spread reflects elevated realized equity volatility.

### Energy — -2.2 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 73.5, P25 79.4, median 86.5, P75 94.4, P90 101.9. The market price sits at the 87.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median 0.0%, P10 -32.0% to P90 +38.4%. Expected front-month crude decline toward the official forecast path, offset by an assumed backwardated futures roll and Treasury-bill collateral income, less fund costs; the very wide spread reflects geopolitical supply risk.

**Probability note:** the 44% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

## Sources

1. Lowest Forward 12-Month P/E Ratio For the S&P 500 in More Than 3 Years — FactSet Insight — https://insight.factset.com/lowest-forward-12-month-p/e-ratio-for-the-sp-500-in-more-than-3-years
2. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: November 6, 2026 — FactSet Insight — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-november-6-2026
3. Market Is Punishing Negative EPS Surprises Less Than Average for S&P 500 Companies for Q3 — FactSet Insight — https://insight.factset.com/market-is-punishing-negative-eps-surprises-less-than-average-for-sp-500-companies-for-q3
4. Morning Briefing Archive (2026): November 9-11 briefings — Yardeni Research — https://archive.yardeni.com/morning-briefing-2026/
5. P/E Ratios by Country 2026 (data through 31 October 2026) — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/pe-ratios-by-country/
6. Europe P/E Ratio & Valuations 2026 (data through 31 October 2026) — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/europe-pe-ratio/
7. Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2026 — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
8. Gold Demand Trends: Q3 2026 - Central Banks — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q3-2026/central-banks
9. ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (ICE Data Indices) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2
10. ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLC0A0CM) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (ICE Data Indices) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM
11. REITs: The Cure for High Rates is High Rates (November 2026) — Chilton Capital Management — https://chiltoncapital.com/2026/11/01/reits-the-cure-for-high-rates-is-high-rates-november-2026/
12. Week in Review - Oil Prices Trend Lower Following Recovery in Middle East Exports — Mansfield Energy — https://mansfield.energy/2026/11/13/week-in-review-oil-prices-trend-lower-following-recovery-in-middle-east-exports/
13. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Chart — Newhedge — https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/mvrv

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.