---
title: "Valuation Lens — November 13, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-11-13"
data_cutoff: "2026-11-13T23:45:00Z"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "valuation-lens-2026-11-13-001"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-11-13/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — November 13, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Nov 13, 2026, 6:45 PM EST  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.65% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Core bonds and China screen modestly cheap, while Developed Pacific, gold and REITs look expensive; against a 4.65% one-year Treasury hurdle, most modeled equity return edges are slim.**

A 4.65% one-year Treasury par yield and a 2.91% 10-year real yield, near the top of their 20-year ranges, set a demanding hurdle for every risk asset.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.9 | Somewhat cheap | 101.3 | 99.1–103.4 | +1.3% | +5.8% | +1.2% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +0.7 | Somewhat cheap | 104.3 | 95.0–113.9 | +4.3% | +7.0% | +2.4% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | +0.5 | Somewhat cheap | 105.7 | 86.5–126.6 | +5.7% | +6.0% | +1.4% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | -0.1 | Fair | 99.6 | 90.6–108.8 | -0.4% | +7.5% | +2.9% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | -0.2 | Fair | 99.0 | 91.6–106.4 | -1.0% | +7.0% | +2.4% |
| US Equities | SPY | -0.9 | Somewhat expensive | 95.6 | 87.8–103.0 | -4.4% | +5.5% | +0.9% |
| Energy | USO | -1.0 | Somewhat expensive | 93.9 | 85.1–103.3 | -6.1% | +2.0% | -2.7% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -1.2 | Somewhat expensive | 94.4 | 87.2–101.4 | -5.6% | +5.0% | +0.4% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -1.5 | Expensive | 92.4 | 84.5–100.0 | -7.6% | +5.0% | +0.4% |
| Metals | GLD | -1.6 | Expensive | 89.5 | 78.9–99.3 | -10.5% | +2.0% | -2.7% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.9 | Expensive | 90.4 | 83.2–97.4 | -9.6% | +4.5% | -0.2% |

### Fixed Income — +0.9 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 97.0, P25 99.1, median 101.3, P75 103.4, P90 105.2. The market price sits at the 35.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.8%, P10 -1.2% to P90 +12.8%. Starting yield-to-maturity carry (about 5.4%) plus partial convergence toward modeled fair yield, with yield-change scenarios at roughly 1pp annual yield volatility times 5.7 years of duration; credit-loss drag is small given the aggregate-index mix.

**Probability note:** the 58% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +0.7 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 86.9, P25 95.0, median 104.3, P75 113.9, P90 122.8. The market price sits at the 38.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -23.8% to P90 +37.8%. Dividend yield (about 2.2%) plus mid-single-digit earnings growth plus partial convergence toward median fair value, with return dispersion scaled to the benchmark's roughly 21% three-year volatility plus policy-shock risk.

### Crypto — +0.5 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 70.4, P25 86.5, median 105.7, P75 126.6, P90 146.3. The market price sits at the 42.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -47.6% to P90 +114.5%. Lognormal return scenarios (55% annual log-volatility) centred on modest convergence toward the median fair value; no income component.

### Emerging Markets Equities — -0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.6, P25 90.6, median 99.6, P75 108.8, P90 117.2. The market price sits at the 51.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -16.9% to P90 +31.9%. Dividend yield (about 2.4%) plus earnings growth haircut from strong current momentum plus negligible valuation convergence, with dispersion scaled to emerging-market volatility and USD risk.

### Europe Equities — -0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.9, P25 91.6, median 99.0, P75 106.4, P90 113.1. The market price sits at the 53.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -13.5% to P90 +27.5%. Dividend yield (about 2.8-3.0%) plus mid-single-digit earnings growth with near-zero valuation convergence, with dispersion scaled to European equity and currency volatility.

### US Equities — -0.9 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 80.7, P25 87.8, median 95.6, P75 103.0, P90 109.5. The market price sits at the 65.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -15.0% to P90 +26.0%. Dividend yield (about 1.2%) plus haircut forward earnings growth (about 8%) less partial multiple compression toward median fair value, with dispersion scaled to about 16% annual volatility.

### Energy — -1.0 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 77.4, P25 85.1, median 93.9, P75 103.3, P90 112.1. The market price sits at the 67.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.0%, P10 -42.9% to P90 +46.9%. Collateral yield on futures margin plus roll yield in a backwardated curve, less the expected decline in spot prices as supply recovers, with dispersion scaled to about 35% crude-oil volatility.

**Probability note:** the 47% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### Japan Equities — -1.2 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 80.6, P25 87.2, median 94.4, P75 101.4, P90 107.5. The market price sits at the 70.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -15.5% to P90 +25.5%. Dividend yield (about 2.2% ordinary) plus mid-single-digit earnings growth from buybacks and ROE gains, less partial multiple compression, with dispersion scaled to about 16% volatility including yen risk.

### Real Estate — -1.5 (Expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 77.3, P25 84.5, median 92.4, P75 100.0, P90 106.8. The market price sits at the 74.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -19.4% to P90 +29.4%. Distribution yield (about 3.5-4%) plus low-single-digit FFO growth, less partial convergence toward the rate-adjusted fair value, with dispersion scaled to about 19% REIT volatility.

### Metals — -1.6 (Expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 69.0, P25 78.9, median 89.5, P75 99.3, P90 107.6. The market price sits at the 76.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.0%, P10 -22.4% to P90 +26.4%. No income; central-bank demand support partly offset by convergence toward modeled fair value and the high real-yield opportunity cost, with dispersion scaled to about 19% gold volatility.

**Probability note:** the 45% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 71%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.9 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 76.6, P25 83.2, median 90.4, P75 97.4, P90 103.5. The market price sits at the 82.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.5%, P10 -17.3% to P90 +26.3%. Dividend yield (about 3.5-4%) plus low earnings growth, less partial convergence toward median fair value, with dispersion scaled to about 17% volatility including currency risk.

## Sources

1. Lowest Forward 12-Month P/E Ratio For the S&P 500 in More Than 3 Years — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/lowest-forward-12-month-p/e-ratio-for-the-sp-500-in-more-than-3-years
2. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: November 6, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-november-6-2026
3. EIA sees Brent near $100/bbl through yearend 2026 as Middle East supply constraints persist — Oil & Gas Journal (reporting the U.S. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook) — https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/economics-markets/news/55418180/eia-sees-brent-near-100-bbl-through-yearend-2026-as-middle-east-supply-constraints-persist
4. Gold Demand Trends: Q3 2026 Outlook — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q3-2026/outlook
5. iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) fund page — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239619/ishares-msci-china-etf
6. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) fund page — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239665/ishares-msci-japan-etf
7. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) fund page — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239607/ishares-msci-australia-etf
8. iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF (EZU) fund page — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239644/ishares-msci-eurozone-etf
9. iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) fund page — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/244050/ishares-core-msci-emerging-markets-etf
10. iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) fund page — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239458/ishares-core-total-us-bond-market-etf
11. iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR) fund page — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239537/ishares-us-real-estate-etf
12. Bitcoin falls below its one-year median — Axel Adler Jr. — https://axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-falls-below-its-one-year-median/
13. STOXX 600 seen rising modestly by year-end, poll shows — Kitco (Reuters) — https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-08-26/stoxx-600-seen-rising-modestly-year-end-poll-shows

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.