---
title: "Valuation Lens — November 12, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-11-12"
data_cutoff: "2026-11-13T04:35:00Z"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "vl-2026-11-12-001"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-11-12/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — November 12, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Nov 12, 2026, 11:35 PM EST  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.65% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Modeled fair value sits above market for China & Hong Kong, Fixed Income and Japan, and well below market for Energy, Developed Pacific and Metals.**

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.65% is the annual hurdle, while the 10-year at 5.10% and the 10-year real yield at 2.86% sit near the top of their 20-year ranges and raise required returns on every long-duration asset.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +1.0 | Somewhat cheap | 106.8 | 96.4–116.7 | +6.8% | +9.0% | +4.4% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.8 | Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | 98.9–103.0 | +1.0% | +5.4% | +0.8% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | +0.7 | Somewhat cheap | 102.6 | 96.3–109.1 | +2.6% | +7.5% | +2.9% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +0.4 | Somewhat cheap | 101.7 | 94.8–108.9 | +1.7% | +8.0% | +3.4% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | +0.3 | Fair | 103.1 | 85.1–122.3 | +3.1% | +6.0% | +1.4% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +0.2 | Fair | 101.0 | 94.3–107.7 | +1.0% | +7.0% | +2.4% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.8 | Somewhat expensive | 96.3 | 89.2–103.3 | -3.7% | +5.5% | +0.9% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.2 | Somewhat expensive | 94.9 | 88.4–101.2 | -5.1% | +5.0% | +0.4% |
| Metals | GLD | -1.4 | Expensive | 91.5 | 81.6–100.6 | -8.5% | +0.5% | -4.2% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.6 | Expensive | 93.4 | 86.9–99.7 | -6.6% | +4.5% | -0.2% |
| Energy | USO | -1.8 | Expensive | 85.4 | 74.3–97.0 | -14.6% | -6.0% | -10.7% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +1.0 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 86.9, P25 96.4, median 106.8, P75 116.7, P90 125.4. The market price sits at the 32.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +9.0%, P10 -20.0% to P90 +36.0%. Dividend yield of about 3% plus mid-single-digit earnings growth plus partial convergence toward median fair value, with a wide downside tail for policy, deflation and geopolitical shocks; US-dollar returns.

### Fixed Income — +0.8 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 97.0, P25 98.9, median 101.0, P75 103.0, P90 104.8. The market price sits at the 37.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.4%, P10 0.0% to P90 +10.6%. Starting yield estimated from the Treasury curve plus a modest credit spread, plus partial price convergence toward median fair value; yield-change scenarios translated through an assumed duration of about six years.

**Probability note:** the 58% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Japan Equities — +0.7 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 90.8, P25 96.3, median 102.6, P75 109.1, P90 115.1. The market price sits at the 39.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -12.5% to P90 +26.0%. Dividend yield of about 2% plus mid-single-digit earnings growth plus modest convergence toward median fair value; unhedged US-dollar returns carry yen risk.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +0.4 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.6, P25 94.8, median 101.7, P75 108.9, P90 115.4. The market price sits at the 43.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.0%, P10 -15.0% to P90 +29.0%. Dividend yield near 3% plus earnings growth tempered for cyclical semiconductor and commodity exposure, with small valuation convergence; US-dollar returns include currency risk.

### Crypto — +0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 69.3, P25 85.1, median 103.1, P75 122.3, P90 139.9. The market price sits at the 45.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -45.0% to P90 +70.0%. No cash flows; return scenarios combine modest convergence toward median fair value with very wide adoption and liquidity outcomes. Low-reliability estimate.

### Europe Equities — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.2, P25 94.3, median 101.0, P75 107.7, P90 113.8. The market price sits at the 46.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -13.0% to P90 +25.0%. Dividend yield of about 3% plus mid-single-digit earnings growth with no assumed re-rating; unhedged US-dollar returns include euro, sterling and franc risk.

### Real Estate — -0.8 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.6, P25 89.2, median 96.3, P75 103.3, P90 109.4. The market price sits at the 63.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -16.0% to P90 +26.0%. Distribution yield near 4% plus low-to-mid single-digit FFO growth, less modest multiple compression toward median fair value; high sensitivity to long-term yields.

### US Equities — -1.2 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.4, P25 88.4, median 94.9, P75 101.2, P90 106.8. The market price sits at the 70.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -15.5% to P90 +23.0%. Shareholder yield near 2.5% plus high-single-digit forward EPS growth, less partial multiple and margin normalization toward median fair value.

### Metals — -1.4 (Expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 72.3, P25 81.6, median 91.5, P75 100.6, P90 108.3. The market price sits at the 73.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +0.5%, P10 -20.0% to P90 +21.0%. No income; partial convergence toward median fair value offset by continued official-sector demand, with wide outcomes driven by real yields, the dollar and geopolitical risk.

**Probability note:** the 39% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 71%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.6 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 80.9, P25 86.9, median 93.4, P75 99.7, P90 105.3. The market price sits at the 76.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.5%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +21.5%. Dividend yield near 3.5% plus low-single-digit earnings growth, less partial multiple compression toward median fair value; US-dollar returns include Australian-dollar risk.

### Energy — -1.8 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 64.4, P25 74.3, median 85.4, P75 97.0, P90 107.7. The market price sits at the 80.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -6.0%, P10 -38.0% to P90 +28.0%. Spot normalization along the official forecast path, partly offset by roll yield from futures backwardation, with a fat upside tail for renewed supply disruption. Low-reliability estimate.

**Probability note:** the 33% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

## Sources

1. Lowest Forward 12-Month P/E Ratio For the S&P 500 in More Than 3 Years — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/lowest-forward-12-month-p/e-ratio-for-the-sp-500-in-more-than-3-years
2. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: November 6, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-november-6-2026
3. Short-Term Energy Outlook: Global Oil Markets (November 2026) — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php
4. Europe P/E Ratio & Valuations 2026 — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/europe-pe-ratio/
5. Emerging Markets P/E & Valuations 2026 — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/emerging-markets-valuations/
6. P/E Ratios by Country 2026 — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/pe-ratios-by-country/
7. Bitcoin Falls Below Its One-Year Median — Axel Adler Jr. — https://axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-falls-below-its-one-year-median.md
8. Nareit REIT Industry Tracker Q2 2026 — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/data-research/reit-market-data/report/nareit-reit-industry-tracker
9. Gold Demand Trends: Q3 2026 Outlook — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q3-2026/outlook

---

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.