---
title: "Valuation Lens — November 11, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-11-11"
data_cutoff: "2026-11-11T18:40:00-05:00"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "valuation-lens-2026-11-11-261111001"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-11-11/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — November 11, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Nov 11, 2026, 6:40 PM EST  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.56% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Core bonds price near fair value while U.S., European, Pacific, real-estate and commodity markets trade above modeled economic value against a 4.56% 1-year Treasury hurdle.**

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.56% sets a demanding annual hurdle, with the 10-year real yield at 2.78%, above the 99th percentile of its 10-year range.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.2 | Fair | 100.4 | 98.2–102.8 | +0.4% | +5.3% | +0.7% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | +0.2 | Fair | 101.3 | 72.3–107.5 | +1.3% | +2.0% | -2.6% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | -0.4 | Somewhat expensive | 98.0 | 87.8–103.6 | -2.0% | +6.7% | +2.1% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -1.1 | Somewhat expensive | 97.1 | 88.0–102.0 | -2.9% | +6.8% | +2.2% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | -1.2 | Somewhat expensive | 95.2 | 91.5–103.2 | -4.8% | +7.5% | +2.9% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | -1.3 | Expensive | 94.7 | 86.2–100.9 | -5.3% | +6.5% | +1.9% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.5 | Expensive | 91.0 | 87.0–100.3 | -9.0% | +6.5% | +1.9% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -1.7 | Expensive | 93.3 | 83.0–98.0 | -6.7% | +6.5% | +1.9% |
| Energy | USO | -1.7 | Expensive | 88.1 | 79.0–96.8 | -11.9% | -2.0% | -6.6% |
| Metals | GLD | -1.9 | Expensive | 85.5 | 72.0–96.9 | -14.5% | -1.0% | -5.6% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -2.2 | Expensive | 87.3 | 81.8–92.0 | -12.7% | +5.3% | +0.7% |

### Fixed Income — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 96.4, P25 98.2, median 100.4, P75 102.8, P90 105.9. The market price sits at the 47.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.3%, P10 -1.7% to P90 +12.3%. Starting yield to maturity less expected credit losses and fees as carry, plus a small valuation-convergence term, with a return spread scaled to duration times typical 1-year yield volatility (about 5.5%).

**Probability note:** the 55% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Crypto — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 59.3, P25 72.3, median 101.3, P75 107.5, P90 120.3. The market price sits at the 46.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.0%, P10 -45.0% to P90 +65.0%. Modeled from a near-fair starting valuation with no carry, net liquidity headwinds from stablecoin contraction and spot-fund outflows, and an annual volatility assumption of about 55%.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — -0.4 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 75.0, P25 87.8, median 98.0, P75 103.6, P90 116.9. The market price sits at the 57.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.7%, P10 -25.3% to P90 +38.7%. Dividend and buyback yield (about 3.1%) plus haircut earnings growth (about 4%) plus a small valuation-convergence drag, with about 25% annual volatility.

### Japan Equities — -1.1 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 77.3, P25 88.0, median 97.1, P75 102.0, P90 110.5. The market price sits at the 69.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.8%, P10 -16.3% to P90 +29.9%. Dividend and buyback yield (about 3.4%) plus earnings growth of about 4% after the current earnings surge, less a small valuation-convergence drag, with about 18% annual volatility in U.S. dollar terms.

### Emerging Markets Equities — -1.2 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.4, P25 91.5, median 95.2, P75 103.2, P90 121.8. The market price sits at the 70.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -20.7% to P90 +35.7%. Dividend and buyback yield (about 2.7%) plus partially delivered earnings growth, less multiple compression typical when earnings peak, with about 22% annual volatility.

### Europe Equities — -1.3 (Expensive)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 78.0, P25 86.2, median 94.7, P75 100.9, P90 107.6. The market price sits at the 72.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -15.3% to P90 +28.3%. Dividend and buyback yield (about 4.1%) plus earnings growth of about 3.5% held back by the energy-price shock, less a valuation-convergence drag of about 1.1%, with about 17% annual volatility.

### US Equities — -1.5 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 80.0, P25 87.0, median 91.0, P75 100.3, P90 104.5. The market price sits at the 74.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -16.0% to P90 +26.5%. Shareholder yield (about 2.4%) plus earnings growth of about 6% after haircutting consensus for record margins, less a valuation-convergence drag of about 1.9%, with about 17% annual volatility and modest negative skew.

### Real Estate — -1.7 (Expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 75.4, P25 83.0, median 93.3, P75 98.0, P90 106.0. The market price sits at the 78.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -17.9% to P90 +30.9%. Dividend yield (about 3.8%) plus AFFO growth of about 4%, less a valuation-convergence drag of about 1.3%, with about 19% annual volatility.

### Energy — -1.7 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 69.6, P25 79.0, median 88.1, P75 96.8, P90 115.0. The market price sits at the 78.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -2.0%, P10 -38.0% to P90 +38.0%. Expected spot decline toward the EIA 2027 path, partly offset by positive roll yield in a backwardated futures curve and collateral income near Treasury-bill rates, with about 35% annual volatility and right-skewed supply-shock risk.

**Probability note:** the 43% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### Metals — -1.9 (Expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 60.8, P25 72.0, median 85.5, P75 96.9, P90 108.0. The market price sits at the 82.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -1.0%, P10 -24.0% to P90 +22.1%. No carry, a fund expense drag, and partial convergence toward modeled fair value offset by continuing official-sector demand, with about 18% annual volatility.

**Probability note:** the 38% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 71%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -2.2 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 74.0, P25 81.8, median 87.3, P75 92.0, P90 101.0. The market price sits at the 87.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.3%, P10 -16.5% to P90 +27.1%. Dividend yield (about 3.8% including buybacks) plus earnings growth of about 4%, less a valuation-convergence drag of about 2.5%, with about 17% annual volatility.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: November 6, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-november-6-2026
2. MSCI USA Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/984000/msci-usa-index
3. MSCI Europe Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/990500/msci-europe-index
4. MSCI Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/939200/msci-japan-index
5. MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/891800/msci-em-emerging-markets-index-2
6. MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/139037/msci-emerging-markets-ex-china-index
7. MSCI China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/302400/msci-china-index
8. MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/991400/msci-pacific-ex-japan-index
9. Short-Term Energy Outlook (November 10, 2026 release) — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
10. REITs Rebounded in October, Leading Broader Equities — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/news/blog/market-commentary/reits-rebounded-october-leading-broader-equities
11. iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) portfolio characteristics — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239458/ishares-core-total-us-bond-market-etf
12. The Week On-chain: Running on Empty — Glassnode — https://research.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-45-2026/
13. Daily Gold and Silver Market Analysis – 9 November 2026 — ISA Bullion — https://www.isabullion.com/reports/daily-gold-and-silver-market-analysis-9-november-2026/

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.