---
title: "Valuation Lens — November 10, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-11-10"
data_cutoff: "2026-11-10T18:45:00-05:00"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "valuation-lens-2026-11-10-261110001"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-11-10/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — November 10, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Nov 10, 2026, 6:45 PM EST  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.56% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**With the 10-year Treasury near 5% and real yields near 20-year highs, high-quality bonds and emerging-market equities price slightly below modeled fair value, while crude oil, Australian equities, gold and US large caps price above it.**

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.56% sets the annual hurdle, while 10-year nominal and real yields of 4.98% and 2.78% sit near the top of their 20-year ranges and raise the discount rate applied to long-duration assets.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.6 | Somewhat cheap | 100.8 | 98.8–102.8 | +0.8% | +5.4% | +0.8% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +0.6 | Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | 95.0–111.6 | +3.0% | +8.0% | +3.4% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | +0.3 | Fair | 101.0 | 94.9–107.1 | +1.0% | +7.5% | +2.9% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | +0.2 | Fair | 102.0 | 83.8–121.4 | +2.0% | +4.0% | -0.6% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +0.1 | Fair | 100.5 | 91.7–109.3 | +0.5% | +6.5% | +1.9% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | -0.6 | Somewhat expensive | 98.0 | 92.6–103.4 | -2.0% | +7.0% | +2.4% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -1.1 | Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | 90.0–101.7 | -4.0% | +6.0% | +1.4% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.5 | Expensive | 92.0 | 83.8–99.8 | -8.0% | +6.0% | +1.4% |
| Metals | GLD | -1.5 | Expensive | 90.0 | 79.2–100.1 | -10.0% | +3.0% | -1.6% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.7 | Expensive | 92.0 | 85.3–98.8 | -8.0% | +5.5% | +0.9% |
| Energy | USO | -2.1 | Expensive | 87.0 | 79.8–95.2 | -13.0% | +3.0% | -1.6% |

### Fixed Income — +0.6 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 97.0, P25 98.8, median 100.8, P75 102.8, P90 104.6. The market price sits at the 39.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.4%, P10 -1.0% to P90 +11.8%. Starting yield to maturity (5.20%) plus modest convergence toward median fair value, with a symmetric return range of about 5 percentage points (5.7-year duration times roughly 0.9pp of annual yield volatility).

**Probability note:** the 57% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +0.6 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.1, P25 95.0, median 103.0, P75 111.6, P90 119.5. The market price sits at the 40.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.0%, P10 -17.6% to P90 +33.6%. Dividend yield (2.2%) plus haircut earnings growth (about 8%, well below the 19% 2027 consensus) plus partial convergence toward median fair value, in USD; return range from about 20% annual volatility applied symmetrically around the median.

### Japan Equities — +0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 89.5, P25 94.9, median 101.0, P75 107.1, P90 112.5. The market price sits at the 45.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -15.6% to P90 +30.6%. Dividend yield (1.9%) plus buybacks (about 1.5%) plus haircut earnings growth (about 5%) with near-zero valuation change, in USD terms; return range from about 18% annual volatility including currency, applied symmetrically.

### Crypto — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 68.0, P25 83.8, median 102.0, P75 121.4, P90 139.3. The market price sits at the 47.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.0%, P10 -60.1% to P90 +68.1%. No cash flows; modest convergence toward median fair value with an adoption-demand drift, and a very wide symmetric range from about 50% annual volatility. Low confidence.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.8, P25 91.7, median 100.5, P75 109.3, P90 117.2. The market price sits at the 48.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -25.5% to P90 +38.5%. Dividend yield (2.6%) plus buybacks (about 1%) plus earnings growth haircut for ongoing downgrades (about 3%), with no valuation change; return range from about 25% annual volatility applied symmetrically.

### Europe Equities — -0.6 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.8, P25 92.6, median 98.0, P75 103.4, P90 108.3. The market price sits at the 59.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -14.8% to P90 +28.8%. Dividend yield (2.9%) plus buybacks plus haircut earnings growth (about 4-5%) less modest valuation drag, in USD; return range from about 17% annual volatility including currency, applied symmetrically.

### Real Estate — -1.1 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.4, P25 90.0, median 96.0, P75 101.7, P90 106.6. The market price sits at the 68.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -17.1% to P90 +29.1%. Dividend yield (about 3.7%) plus FFO growth (about 4%) less partial convergence toward median fair value; return range from about 18% annual volatility applied symmetrically.

### US Equities — -1.5 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 76.1, P25 83.8, median 92.0, P75 99.8, P90 106.5. The market price sits at the 75.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -15.8% to P90 +27.8%. Shareholder yield (about 2%) plus haircut earnings growth (about 8% vs a roughly 15% 2027 consensus) less valuation drag of about 3-4% from partial convergence toward median fair value; return range from about 17% annual volatility applied symmetrically.

### Metals — -1.5 (Expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 69.2, P25 79.2, median 90.0, P75 100.1, P90 108.9. The market price sits at the 74.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.0%, P10 -20.1% to P90 +26.1%. No income; sovereign-demand support offset by partial convergence toward median fair value with real yields near 2.8%, measured from the last validated GLD close; return range from about 18% annual volatility applied symmetrically.

**Probability note:** the 47% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 71%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.7 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 79.2, P25 85.3, median 92.0, P75 98.8, P90 104.8. The market price sits at the 78.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -17.6% to P90 +28.6%. Dividend yield (about 3.5%) plus earnings growth (about 6%) less valuation drag toward median fair value, in USD; return range from about 18% annual volatility including currency, applied symmetrically.

### Energy — -2.1 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 73.9, P25 79.8, median 87.0, P75 95.2, P90 102.9. The market price sits at the 85.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.0%, P10 -38.0% to P90 +44.0%. Futures-holding return: expected spot decline toward about $75 WTI largely offset by backwardation roll yield, plus collateral income near the T-bill rate; return range from about 32% annual volatility applied symmetrically.

**Probability note:** the 48% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

## Sources

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.