---
title: "Valuation Lens — November 9, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-11-09"
data_cutoff: "2026-11-09T18:45:00-05:00"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "valuation-lens-2026-11-09-001"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-11-09/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — November 9, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Nov 9, 2026, 6:45 PM EST  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.38% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Emerging-market and China equities screen modestly cheap and core bonds slightly cheap, while US equities and crude oil trade above modeled fair value.**

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.38% is the annual hurdle, and a 2.66% 10-year real yield near the top of its 10-year range raises the discount rate applied to long-duration assets.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +1.1 | Somewhat cheap | 107.0 | 97.6–117.8 | +7.0% | +8.5% | +4.1% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +0.9 | Somewhat cheap | 105.0 | 96.2–115.1 | +5.0% | +8.0% | +3.6% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.8 | Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | 99.0–103.2 | +1.0% | +5.6% | +1.2% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | -0.2 | Fair | 99.0 | 91.6–107.1 | -1.0% | +7.0% | +2.6% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | -0.2 | Fair | 97.0 | 76.8–121.3 | -3.0% | +3.0% | -1.4% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -0.3 | Fair | 98.5 | 91.1–106.6 | -1.5% | +6.5% | +2.1% |
| Metals | GLD | -0.8 | Somewhat expensive | 95.0 | 84.9–105.1 | -5.0% | +2.0% | -2.4% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.9 | Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | 89.3–103.4 | -4.0% | +5.0% | +0.6% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.2 | Somewhat expensive | 94.0 | 87.3–101.4 | -6.0% | +5.5% | +1.1% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.5 | Expensive | 91.5 | 83.4–100.3 | -8.5% | +5.5% | +1.1% |
| Energy | USO | -1.5 | Expensive | 90.0 | 81.9–100.1 | -10.0% | -2.0% | -6.4% |

### Emerging Markets Equities — +1.1 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 89.1, P25 97.6, median 107.0, P75 117.8, P90 127.5. The market price sits at the 30.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.5%, P10 -15.0% to P90 +31.0%. Building-block model: 2.2% dividend yield plus about 6% sustainable earnings growth after haircutting the forward estimate step-up, plus partial (about 20% per year) convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from about 18% annualized volatility with mild positive skew.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +0.9 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.3, P25 96.2, median 105.0, P75 115.1, P90 124.2. The market price sits at the 35.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.0%, P10 -22.0% to P90 +37.0%. Building-block model: 2.6% dividend yield plus about 5-6% earnings growth plus modest convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from about 23% annualized volatility reflecting policy and geopolitical risk.

### Fixed Income — +0.8 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 97.2, P25 99.0, median 101.0, P75 103.2, P90 105.2. The market price sits at the 36.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.6%, P10 -0.8% to P90 +12.0%. Starting-yield model: estimated current yield to maturity near 5.3% less fees, plus a small price gain from partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from a 0.8-0.9 percentage-point one-year yield-change range times 5.7-year duration.

**Probability note:** the 60% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Europe Equities — -0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.9, P25 91.6, median 99.0, P75 107.1, P90 114.4. The market price sits at the 53.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -12.0% to P90 +25.0%. Building-block model: 2.9% dividend yield plus about 4-5% earnings growth after haircutting the implied forward step-up, with negligible valuation convergence; dispersion from about 15% annualized volatility.

### Crypto — -0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 58.6, P25 76.8, median 97.0, P75 121.3, P90 143.1. The market price sits at the 53.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.0%, P10 -45.0% to P90 +60.0%. No cash flows or carry: return is modeled as partial convergence toward the fair-value distribution with an annualized volatility near 45% and right skew; low confidence.

### Japan Equities — -0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.4, P25 91.1, median 98.5, P75 106.6, P90 113.9. The market price sits at the 55.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -13.0% to P90 +25.0%. Building-block model: 1.9% dividend yield plus buybacks and about 4% earnings growth after haircutting the implied forward step-up, with negligible valuation convergence; dispersion from about 15% annualized volatility including yen exposure.

### Metals — -0.8 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 75.8, P25 84.9, median 95.0, P75 105.1, P90 114.2. The market price sits at the 63.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.0%, P10 -18.0% to P90 +22.0%. No carry; return combines partial convergence toward median fair value with continued official-sector demand, less fund expenses; dispersion from about 16% annualized volatility.

**Probability note:** the 44% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 71%.

### Real Estate — -0.9 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.2, P25 89.3, median 96.0, P75 103.4, P90 110.1. The market price sits at the 64.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +24.0%. Building-block model: distribution yield near 3.5-4% plus about 3-4% sustainable FFO growth, less partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from about 15% annualized volatility.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.2 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.2, P25 87.3, median 94.0, P75 101.4, P90 108.1. The market price sits at the 70.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -12.0% to P90 +22.0%. Building-block model: 3.5% dividend yield plus about 3-4% earnings growth, less partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from about 13.5% annualized volatility.

### US Equities — -1.5 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 76.1, P25 83.4, median 91.5, P75 100.3, P90 108.2. The market price sits at the 74.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -15.5% to P90 +23.0%. Building-block model: 1.2% dividend yield plus about 6-7% growth in forward earnings, less about 2 percentage points from partial (about 20% per year) convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from about 15% annualized volatility.

### Energy — -1.5 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 74.6, P25 81.9, median 90.0, P75 100.1, P90 109.2. The market price sits at the 74.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -2.0%, P10 -30.0% to P90 +30.0%. Spot convergence toward the official 2027 price path, partly offset by positive roll yield from a backwardated futures curve; dispersion from about 24% annualized volatility with upside supply-shock skew.

**Probability note:** the 40% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: November 6, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-november-6-2026
2. MSCI Europe Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/990500/msci-europe-index
3. MSCI Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/939200/msci-japan-index
4. MSCI China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/302400/msci-china-index
5. MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/891800/msci-em-emerging-markets-index-2
6. MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/991400/msci-pacific-ex-japan-index
7. MSCI World Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/990100/msci-world-index
8. MSCI North America Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/990200/msci-north-america-index
9. Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2026) — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
10. Goldhub Insights: Posts from July 2026 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/07
11. Strength in REIT Operations Underpins Strong Investment Performance — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/news/blog/market-commentary/strength-reit-operations-underpins-strong-investment-performance
12. Why Bitcoin Might Not Reach The Realized Price Again — Look Into Bitcoin — https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/bitcoin-research/why-bitcoin-might-not-reach-the-realized-price-again/
13. Crude Oil Price Today: Brent at $95.16, WTI at $87.94 in Post-Market Trade on 5 November 2026 — 5paisa — https://www.5paisa.com/blog/crude-oil-price-today-05-nov-2026
14. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) — Vanguard — https://www.vanguardsouthamerica.com/en/product/etf/fixed-income/0928/vanguard-total-bond-market-etf

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.