---
title: "Valuation Lens — November 8, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-11-08"
data_cutoff: "2026-11-08T07:16:00Z"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "vl-2026-11-08-001"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-11-08/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — November 8, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Nov 8, 2026, 2:16 AM EST  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.33% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Real estate, China and emerging-market equities screen modestly cheap; oil-linked energy screens most expensive as a conflict premium holds Brent near $98, and U.S. large caps sit somewhat above modeled fair value despite a 17.7x forward multiple.**

A 4.33% one-year Treasury par yield and a 2.63% 10-year real yield near the top of their 20-year ranges set a demanding hurdle that every risk asset's modeled return must clear.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Real Estate | VNQ | +1.0 | Somewhat cheap | 106.0 | 97.0–114.0 | +6.0% | +8.0% | +3.7% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +0.9 | Somewhat cheap | 106.0 | 96.0–116.0 | +6.0% | +8.0% | +3.7% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +0.7 | Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | 95.0–114.0 | +4.0% | +7.5% | +3.2% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +0.4 | Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | 95.0–109.0 | +2.0% | +7.0% | +2.7% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.3 | Fair | 100.5 | 97.8–103.2 | +0.5% | +5.3% | +1.0% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | +0.2 | Fair | 101.0 | 93.0–108.0 | +1.0% | +6.5% | +2.2% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | -0.3 | Fair | 95.0 | 75.0–118.0 | -5.0% | +2.0% | -2.3% |
| US Equities | SPY | -0.9 | Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | 89.0–103.0 | -4.0% | +6.5% | +2.2% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.1 | Somewhat expensive | 95.0 | 88.0–102.0 | -5.0% | +5.0% | +0.7% |
| Metals | SLV | -1.1 | Somewhat expensive | 93.0 | 84.0–103.0 | -7.0% | +3.0% | -1.3% |
| Energy | USO | -1.4 | Expensive | 91.0 | 82.0–101.0 | -9.0% | -4.0% | -8.3% |

### Real Estate — +1.0 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.0, P25 97.0, median 106.0, P75 114.0, P90 122.0. The market price sits at the 33.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.0%, P10 -12.0% to P90 +25.0%. Distribution yield of about 3.9% plus 2-3% FFO growth plus partial (25%) convergence toward the median fair value, with dispersion scaled to REIT index volatility and rate sensitivity.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +0.9 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.0, P25 96.0, median 106.0, P75 116.0, P90 127.0. The market price sits at the 35.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.0%, P10 -16.0% to P90 +30.0%. Dividend yield of about 2.5% plus 6%-7% forward earnings growth plus partial (25%) convergence toward the median fair value, with dispersion scaled to the benchmark's historically high volatility and policy risk.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +0.7 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.0, P25 95.0, median 104.0, P75 114.0, P90 125.0. The market price sits at the 38.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -15.0% to P90 +27.0%. Dividend yield of about 2.8% plus haircut earnings growth plus partial (25%) convergence toward the median fair value, with dispersion scaled to EM volatility and currency risk.

### Europe Equities — +0.4 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.0, P25 95.0, median 102.0, P75 109.0, P90 117.0. The market price sits at the 42.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -10.0% to P90 +21.0%. Dividend and buyback yield of about 4.5% plus 3%-5% earnings growth plus small partial convergence toward the median fair value, in U.S. dollars with currency dispersion.

### Fixed Income — +0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 94.5, P25 97.8, median 100.5, P75 103.2, P90 106.0. The market price sits at the 45.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.3%, P10 +0.5% to P90 +9.8%. Starting yield to worst of 5.24% as carry plus duration-weighted price change from a distribution of 12-month yield shifts centered near zero (standard deviation about 85 bp), less expected credit losses of about 5 bp.

**Probability note:** the 61% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Japan Equities — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.0, P25 93.0, median 101.0, P75 108.0, P90 115.0. The market price sits at the 46.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -12.0% to P90 +23.0%. Dividend and buyback yield of about 3.5% plus 3%-4% earnings growth with a near-stable multiple, in U.S. dollars with yen dispersion.

### Crypto — -0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 58.0, P25 75.0, median 95.0, P75 118.0, P90 145.0. The market price sits at the 55.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.0%, P10 -45.0% to P90 +65.0%. Scenario mixture of cost-basis reversion, ETF and treasury demand growth and drawdown regimes, centered slightly below fair-value convergence because the asset produces no cash flow; dispersion scaled to realized bitcoin volatility.

### US Equities — -0.9 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 80.0, P25 89.0, median 96.0, P75 103.0, P90 110.0. The market price sits at the 64.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -12.0% to P90 +21.0%. Dividend and net buyback yield of about 1.5% plus 8%-10% forward earnings growth, less a partial (30%) multiple adjustment toward the median fair value, with dispersion scaled to large-cap volatility.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.1 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.0, P25 88.0, median 95.0, P75 102.0, P90 109.0. The market price sits at the 67.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -11.0% to P90 +19.0%. Dividend yield of about 3.5% plus 3%-5% earnings growth, less a partial (25%) multiple adjustment toward the median fair value, in U.S. dollars with currency dispersion.

### Metals — -1.1 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: SLV (Silver)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 73.0, P25 84.0, median 93.0, P75 103.0, P90 115.0. The market price sits at the 67.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.0%, P10 -25.0% to P90 +32.0%. Scenario mixture of partial fair-value convergence, safe-haven and central-bank demand shocks and industrial-cycle swings; no carry for physical metals, with dispersion scaled to realized silver volatility.

**Probability note:** the 47% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 71%.

### Energy — -1.4 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 72.0, P25 82.0, median 91.0, P75 101.0, P90 114.0. The market price sits at the 72.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -4.0%, P10 -32.0% to P90 +28.0%. Futures-based return scenarios: expected spot decline toward official forecasts partly offset by positive roll yield in a backwardated curve and collateral interest, with fat-tailed upside from supply disruption.

**Probability note:** the 35% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: November 6, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-november-6-2026
2. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: October 23, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-october-23-2026
3. Analysts Increasing Quarterly EPS Estimates for S&P 500 for 3rd Straight Quarter — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/analysts-increasing-quarterly-eps-estimates-for-sp-500-for-3rd-straight-quarter
4. P/E Ratios by Country 2026 — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/pe-ratios-by-country/
5. Emerging Markets P/E & Valuations 2026 — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/emerging-markets-valuations/
6. Europe P/E Ratio & Valuations 2026 — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/europe-pe-ratio/
7. European Stocks: Reasons to Reconsider — Charles Schwab — https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/european-stocks-reasons-to-reconsider
8. Compelling Valuations in Japan — Hennessy Funds — https://www.hennessyfunds.com/insights/investment-idea-japan-valuations
9. Fixed income weekly commentary: Fed holds, but Treasuries rally on safety — Nuveen — https://www.nuveen.com/en-us/insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-weekly-commentary
10. The State of REITs: October 2026 Edition — 2nd Market Capital Advisory — https://www.2ndmarketcapital.com/2026/10/28/the-state-of-reits-october-2026-edition/
11. Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 6, 2026 release) — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
12. Oil prices tumble for the week as investors weigh Iran conflict risk after midterm elections — CNBC — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/06/oil-price-today-brent-wti.html
13. Gold - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News — Trading Economics — https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold
14. MVRV Explained: The On-Chain Metric That Reads Bitcoin's Cost Basis — BIT — https://www.bit.com/knowledge-hub/mvrv-explained
15. Bitcoin Price Outlook For November 2026: One Price Level Remains Critical — Yahoo Finance — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-price-outlook-november-2026-020000012.html

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.