---
title: "Valuation Lens — November 7, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-11-07"
data_cutoff: "2026-11-07T02:15:00-05:00"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "cxpw-vl-20261107-001"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-11-07/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — November 7, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Nov 7, 2026, 2:15 AM EST  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.33% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Emerging-market and China equities trade below modeled fair value; US large caps, crude oil and gold sit above it, and the 4.33% 1-year Treasury clears several modeled expected returns.**

The 4.33% 1-year Treasury par yield (4.13% on the 1-year bill, discount basis) is the annual hurdle, while 10-year nominal and real yields of 4.86% and 2.63% sit near the top of their 10-year ranges.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +1.6 | Cheap | 109.5 | 100.4–119.4 | +9.5% | +9.5% | +5.2% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +1.4 | Cheap | 108.5 | 99.4–118.4 | +8.5% | +9.0% | +4.7% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.6 | Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | 98.3–103.7 | +1.0% | +5.3% | +1.0% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | +0.5 | Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | 95.3–108.8 | +2.0% | +7.5% | +3.2% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +0.2 | Fair | 101.0 | 94.3–107.8 | +1.0% | +7.0% | +2.7% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | +0.2 | Fair | 101.0 | 92.9–109.1 | +1.0% | +7.0% | +2.7% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | 0.0 | Fair | 100.3 | 84.2–118.4 | +0.3% | +3.0% | -1.3% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -0.9 | Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | 89.3–102.8 | -4.0% | +5.5% | +1.2% |
| Metals | GLD | -1.0 | Somewhat expensive | 92.9 | 80.5–104.2 | -7.2% | +1.0% | -3.3% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.1 | Somewhat expensive | 93.5 | 83.6–102.6 | -6.5% | +6.0% | +1.7% |
| Energy | USO | -1.2 | Somewhat expensive | 89.1 | 76.2–103.5 | -11.0% | -4.0% | -8.3% |

### Emerging Markets Equities — +1.6 (Cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 92.7, P25 100.4, median 109.5, P75 119.4, P90 128.7. The market price sits at the 24.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +9.5%, P10 -16.1% to P90 +35.1%. Dividend yield (~2.2%) plus haircut consensus earnings growth plus one-third convergence toward median fair value, with a 20-point annual volatility band; normal approximation.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +1.4 (Cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 91.7, P25 99.4, median 108.5, P75 118.4, P90 127.7. The market price sits at the 26.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +9.0%, P10 -16.6% to P90 +34.6%. Dividend yield (~2.6%) plus ~6% nominal earnings growth plus one-quarter convergence toward median fair value, with a 20-point annual volatility band; normal approximation.

### Fixed Income — +0.6 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 95.9, P25 98.3, median 101.0, P75 103.7, P90 106.1. The market price sits at the 40.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.3%, P10 -1.1% to P90 +11.7%. Starting yield (~4.9%, estimated from the Treasury curve plus investment-grade spread) plus a small duration gain from partial convergence toward median fair value, with a 5-point annual volatility band; normal approximation.

**Probability note:** the 58% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Real Estate — +0.5 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 89.2, P25 95.3, median 102.0, P75 108.8, P90 114.8. The market price sits at the 42.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -15.6% to P90 +30.6%. Distribution yield (~3.9%, estimated) plus ~3% AFFO growth plus partial convergence toward median fair value, with an 18-point annual volatility band; normal approximation.

### Europe Equities — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.2, P25 94.3, median 101.0, P75 107.8, P90 113.8. The market price sits at the 46.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -12.2% to P90 +26.2%. Dividend yield (2.9%) plus ~4% nominal earnings growth with no material valuation convergence, with a 15-point annual volatility band; normal approximation.

### Japan Equities — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.6, P25 92.9, median 101.0, P75 109.1, P90 116.4. The market price sits at the 46.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -13.5% to P90 +27.5%. Dividend yield (~2.4%) plus buybacks and ~4% earnings growth with no material valuation convergence, with a 16-point annual volatility band; normal approximation.

### Crypto — 0.0 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 71.0, P25 84.2, median 100.3, P75 118.4, P90 135.5. The market price sits at the 49.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.0%, P10 -54.7% to P90 +60.7%. No income; a small drift from network adoption around a near-fair starting point, with a 45-point annual volatility band; normal approximation with very low reliability.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -0.9 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.2, P25 89.3, median 96.0, P75 102.8, P90 108.8. The market price sits at the 65.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -13.7% to P90 +24.7%. Dividend yield (~3.5%, estimated) plus ~4% earnings growth less a modest valuation drag, with a 15-point annual volatility band; normal approximation.

### Metals — -1.0 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 68.9, P25 80.5, median 92.9, P75 104.2, P90 113.9. The market price sits at the 66.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +1.0%, P10 -22.1% to P90 +24.1%. No carry; official-sector demand offsets a high real-yield headwind, with an 18-point annual volatility band; normal approximation.

**Probability note:** the 43% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 71%.

### US Equities — -1.1 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 74.3, P25 83.6, median 93.5, P75 102.6, P90 110.3. The market price sits at the 68.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -11.0% to P90 +23.0%. Shareholder yield (~2%) plus ~10% next-year EPS growth less about one-third convergence toward median fair value and some margin give-back, with a 13-point annual volatility band; normal approximation.

### Energy — -1.2 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 65.6, P25 76.2, median 89.1, P75 103.5, P90 117.2. The market price sits at the 69.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -4.0%, P10 -42.4% to P90 +34.4%. Partial convergence of spot toward the forecast path, offset by positive roll yield from a backwardated futures curve, with a 30-point annual volatility band; normal approximation.

**Probability note:** the 39% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: November 6, 2026 — FactSet Insight — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-november-6-2026
2. MSCI ACWI ex USA Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/899901/msci-acwi-ex-usa-index
3. MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/891800/msci-em-emerging-markets-index-2
4. MSCI Europe Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/990500/msci-europe-index
5. MSCI China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/302400/msci-china-index
6. MSCI EAFE Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/990300/msci-eafe-index
7. MSCI Pacific Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/990800/msci-pacific-index
8. Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2026) — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/
9. ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (ICE Data Indices) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2
10. ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLC0A0CM) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (ICE Data Indices) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM
11. Current price of gold as of November 6, 2026 — Fortune — https://fortune.com/article/current-price-of-gold-11-06-2026/
12. Current price of oil as of November 6, 2026 — Fortune — https://fortune.com/article/price-of-oil-11-06-2026/
13. Current price of Bitcoin for November 6, 2026 — Fortune — https://fortune.com/article/price-of-bitcoin-11-06-2026/
14. How to Read Bitcoin MVRV, NUPL, and Realized Price — Pintu Academy — https://pintu.co.id/en/academy/post/how-to-read-bitcoin-mvrv-nupl-realized-price

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.