---
title: "Valuation Lens — November 6, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-11-06"
data_cutoff: "2026-11-07T01:57:00Z"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "valuation_lens_2026-11-06_v3.4_001"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-11-06/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — November 6, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Nov 6, 2026, 8:57 PM EST  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.33% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Emerging markets, Japan and REITs screen cheapest against modeled current value, while energy, Pacific ex-Japan and metals screen most expensive and U.S. large caps sit above fair value on profit-based aggregates despite a 17.7x forward P/E.**

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.33% (investment basis) is the annual hurdle, on an upward-sloping curve where 10-year nominal and real yields of 4.86% and 2.63% sit near their highest levels of the past decade.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +1.3 | Cheap | 107.0 | 99.0–114.6 | +7.0% | +9.5% | +5.2% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | +1.0 | Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | 97.5–110.2 | +4.0% | +8.5% | +4.2% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | +1.0 | Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | 97.9–109.8 | +4.0% | +7.5% | +3.2% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +0.9 | Somewhat cheap | 105.0 | 96.2–113.8 | +5.0% | +8.0% | +3.7% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.6 | Somewhat cheap | 100.6 | 98.9–102.2 | +0.6% | +5.4% | +1.1% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +0.3 | Fair | 101.0 | 94.9–106.8 | +1.0% | +8.0% | +3.7% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | +0.3 | Fair | 104.0 | 85.2–123.8 | +4.0% | +5.0% | +0.7% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.3 | Expensive | 94.5 | 87.6–101.0 | -5.5% | +7.0% | +2.7% |
| Metals | GLD | -1.7 | Expensive | 90.0 | 80.8–98.7 | -10.0% | +3.0% | -1.3% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.8 | Expensive | 93.0 | 87.3–98.7 | -7.0% | +4.5% | +0.2% |
| Energy | USO | -1.9 | Expensive | 89.0 | 80.9–97.1 | -11.0% | +1.0% | -3.3% |

### Emerging Markets Equities — +1.3 (Cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 91.5, P25 99.0, median 107.0, P75 114.6, P90 121.2. The market price sits at the 27.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +9.5%, P10 -16.1% to P90 +32.6%. Dividend yield (about 2.2%) plus haircut forward earnings growth plus partial convergence toward median modeled value, with a two-piece return distribution wider on the downside (lower scale 20, upper scale 18 percentage points).

### Japan Equities — +1.0 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 91.5, P25 97.5, median 104.0, P75 110.2, P90 115.5. The market price sits at the 33.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.5%, P10 -13.3% to P90 +27.7%. Dividend and buyback yield (about 3.4%) plus haircut forward earnings growth plus modest multiple convergence, with a two-piece return distribution (lower scale 17, upper scale 15 percentage points); U.S.-dollar basis.

### Real Estate — +1.0 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 92.2, P25 97.9, median 104.0, P75 109.8, P90 114.8. The market price sits at the 32.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -16.9% to P90 +29.3%. Distribution yield (about 4%) plus AFFO growth near 3% plus partial NAV-discount convergence, with a two-piece return distribution (lower scale 19, upper scale 17 percentage points) reflecting rate sensitivity.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +0.9 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.3, P25 96.2, median 105.0, P75 113.8, P90 121.7. The market price sits at the 35.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.0%, P10 -22.8% to P90 +36.2%. Dividend yield (about 2.6%) plus modest earnings growth plus partial multiple convergence, with a wide two-piece return distribution (lower scale 24, upper scale 22 percentage points) for policy and geopolitical risk.

### Fixed Income — +0.6 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 97.4, P25 98.9, median 100.6, P75 102.2, P90 103.6. The market price sits at the 40.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.4%, P10 -0.8% to P90 +11.0%. Starting aggregate yield to worst near 5.2% plus small modeled valuation gain, with duration-scaled yield-change scenarios (lower scale 4.8, upper scale 4.4 percentage points).

**Probability note:** the 59% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Europe Equities — +0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 89.2, P25 94.9, median 101.0, P75 106.8, P90 111.8. The market price sits at the 45.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.0%, P10 -12.5% to P90 +25.9%. Dividend and buyback yield (about 3.6%) plus haircut forward earnings growth with no assumed multiple change, with a two-piece return distribution (lower scale 16, upper scale 14 percentage points); U.S.-dollar basis.

### Crypto — +0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 68.8, P25 85.2, median 104.0, P75 123.8, P90 142.2. The market price sits at the 44.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -52.7% to P90 +75.5%. Partial convergence toward the median of on-chain cost-basis anchors with no cash yield, using a very wide two-piece return distribution (lower scale 45, upper scale 55 percentage points).

### US Equities — -1.3 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.2, P25 87.6, median 94.5, P75 101.0, P90 106.6. The market price sits at the 71.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -13.5% to P90 +24.9%. Shareholder yield (about 2.3%) plus haircut forward EPS growth near 8% less a valuation drag of about 2.5% as the multiple drifts toward modeled value, with a two-piece return distribution (lower scale 16, upper scale 14 percentage points).

### Metals — -1.7 (Expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 72.3, P25 80.8, median 90.0, P75 98.7, P90 106.2. The market price sits at the 78.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.0%, P10 -20.1% to P90 +24.8%. No income; modest price drift from sustained official-sector demand offset by partial convergence toward modeled value under high real yields, with a two-piece return distribution (lower scale 18, upper scale 17 percentage points).

**Probability note:** the 47% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 71%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.8 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.1, P25 87.3, median 93.0, P75 98.7, P90 103.9. The market price sits at the 79.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.5%, P10 -14.7% to P90 +21.2%. Dividend yield (about 3.5%) plus forward earnings growth near 4% less a valuation drag of about 3% toward modeled value, with a two-piece return distribution (lower scale 15, upper scale 13 percentage points); U.S.-dollar basis.

### Energy — -1.9 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 73.6, P25 80.9, median 89.0, P75 97.1, P90 104.4. The market price sits at the 82.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +1.0%, P10 -40.0% to P90 +39.4%. Front-month futures exposure: collateral yield and roll return in a backwardated curve offset by an expected spot decline as disrupted supply returns, with a very wide two-piece return distribution (lower scale 32, upper scale 30 percentage points).

**Probability note:** the 46% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: November 6, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-november-6-2026
2. MSCI EAFE Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/990300/msci-eafe-index
3. MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/891800/msci-em-emerging-markets-index-2
4. MSCI Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/939200/msci-japan-index
5. MSCI China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/302400/msci-china-index
6. MSCI Europe Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/990500/msci-europe-index
7. MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/991400/msci-pacific-ex-japan-index
8. Fixed income weekly commentary: Fed holds, but Treasuries rally on safety — Nuveen — https://www.nuveen.com/en-us/insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-weekly-commentary
9. The State of REITs: October 2026 Edition — 2nd Market Capital Advisory Corp — https://www.2ndmarketcapital.com/2026/10/28/the-state-of-reits-october-2026-edition/
10. Short-Term Energy Outlook: Global oil markets (October 2026) — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php
11. Short-Term Energy Outlook: Natural gas (October 2026) — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/natgas.php
12. Gold Market Commentary: Where floor art thou? — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-market-commentary
13. How to Read Bitcoin MVRV, NUPL, and Realized Price — Pintu Academy — https://pintu.co.id/en/academy/post/how-to-read-bitcoin-mvrv-nupl-realized-price

---

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.