---
title: "Valuation Lens — November 5, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-11-05"
data_cutoff: "2026-11-05T18:43:00-05:00"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "vl_20261105_001"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-11-05/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — November 5, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Nov 5, 2026, 6:43 PM EST  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.28% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Core bonds screen near fair value; US, European, Pacific and energy prices sit above modeled economic value with the 10-year real yield at 2.6%.**

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.28% sets the hurdle, while a 10-year real yield of 2.60% (98th percentile of the past decade) keeps discount rates high for long-duration assets.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.2 | Fair | 100.2 | 98.6–102.0 | +0.2% | +5.2% | +0.9% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.1 | Fair | 99.5 | 92.8–105.6 | -0.5% | +6.0% | +1.7% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | -0.3 | Fair | 98.0 | 87.9–107.4 | -2.0% | +7.0% | +2.7% |
| US Equities | SPY | -0.8 | Somewhat expensive | 95.5 | 86.8–103.9 | -4.5% | +6.8% | +2.5% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | -0.8 | Somewhat expensive | 90.0 | 73.1–110.2 | -10.0% | +3.0% | -1.3% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -0.9 | Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | 89.3–103.1 | -4.0% | +7.0% | +2.7% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | -1.0 | Somewhat expensive | 95.0 | 86.2–103.1 | -5.0% | +7.5% | +3.2% |
| Metals | GLD | -1.2 | Somewhat expensive | 92.0 | 83.2–102.1 | -8.0% | +2.0% | -2.3% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | -1.9 | Expensive | 92.0 | 85.3–98.1 | -8.0% | +6.5% | +2.2% |
| Energy | USO | -2.0 | Expensive | 84.0 | 75.2–95.5 | -16.0% | -3.0% | -7.3% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -2.2 | Expensive | 89.0 | 82.9–95.7 | -11.0% | +5.5% | +1.2% |

### Fixed Income — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 97.1, P25 98.6, median 100.2, P75 102.0, P90 103.5. The market price sits at the 46.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.2%, P10 -0.6% to P90 +10.3%. Starting aggregate yield (carry) plus duration-weighted price change across justified-yield scenarios, with rate volatility of roughly 70bp a year.

**Probability note:** the 58% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Real Estate — -0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 86.7, P25 92.8, median 99.5, P75 105.6, P90 111.0. The market price sits at the 52.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -13.2% to P90 +22.7%. Distribution yield plus FFO growth, with partial convergence to median fair value and rate-sensitivity ranges.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — -0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 78.8, P25 87.9, median 98.0, P75 107.4, P90 115.9. The market price sits at the 55.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -18.6% to P90 +31.4%. Forward EPS growth near 7% plus a 2.8% dividend yield, with a small valuation-convergence term and wide policy and geopolitical dispersion.

### US Equities — -0.8 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 79.0, P25 86.8, median 95.5, P75 103.9, P90 111.5. The market price sits at the 64.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.8%, P10 -13.7% to P90 +24.7%. Forward EPS growth near 9% plus a 1.2% dividend yield, partial (one-quarter) convergence toward median fair value and an estimate-revision haircut; dispersion reflects equity volatility and margin risk.

### Crypto — -0.8 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 58.0, P25 73.1, median 90.0, P75 110.2, P90 128.4. The market price sits at the 63.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.0%, P10 -41.9% to P90 +60.7%. No carry; partial convergence toward the median MVRV-regime value plus adoption drift, with very wide dispersion.

### Japan Equities — -0.9 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.2, P25 89.3, median 96.0, P75 103.1, P90 109.5. The market price sits at the 64.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -12.2% to P90 +24.9%. Forward EPS growth near 8% plus a 2.3% dividend yield and buybacks, with partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion includes currency risk for a US-dollar investor.

### Emerging Markets Equities — -1.0 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 78.3, P25 86.2, median 95.0, P75 103.1, P90 110.4. The market price sits at the 66.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -15.6% to P90 +28.0%. Forward EPS growth after a peak-cycle haircut plus a 2.8% dividend yield, with partial convergence toward median fair value; wide dispersion for currency and semiconductor-cycle risk.

### Metals — -1.2 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 75.3, P25 83.2, median 92.0, P75 102.1, P90 111.2. The market price sits at the 70.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.0%, P10 -17.2% to P90 +23.8%. No carry; official-sector demand drift offset by the opportunity cost of high real yields and partial convergence toward median fair value.

**Probability note:** the 45% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 71%.

### Europe Equities — -1.9 (Expensive)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 79.2, P25 85.3, median 92.0, P75 98.1, P90 103.5. The market price sits at the 81.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -12.7% to P90 +23.2%. Haircut forward EPS growth plus a 3.2% dividend yield, less partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion includes euro and sterling risk for a US-dollar investor.

### Energy — -2.0 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 67.3, P25 75.2, median 84.0, P75 95.5, P90 105.8. The market price sits at the 82.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -3.0%, P10 -35.0% to P90 +35.4%. Expected spot decline along the official supply-recovery path, partly offset by positive roll yield in a backwardated futures curve and Treasury-bill collateral income.

**Probability note:** the 40% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -2.2 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 77.5, P25 82.9, median 89.0, P75 95.7, P90 101.8. The market price sits at the 86.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -12.4% to P90 +20.9%. Forward EPS growth near 6% plus a 3.8% dividend yield, less partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion includes Australian-dollar risk.

## Sources

1. P/E Ratios by Country 2026 — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/pe-ratios-by-country/
2. Europe P/E Ratio & Valuations 2026 — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/europe-pe-ratio/
3. EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year (October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook) — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press593.php
4. Markets at the Crossroads: What J.P. Morgan's 4Q 2026 Guide Tells Advisors Now — AdvisorAnalyst.com — https://advisoranalyst.com/2026/10/01/markets-at-the-crossroads-what-j-p-morgans-4q-2026-guide-tells-advisors-now.html/
5. JPMorgan BetaBuilders U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF — Product Snapshot — J.P. Morgan Asset Management — https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/products/jpmorgan-betabuilders-u-s-aggregate-bond-etf-etf-shares-46641q241.md
6. Why Bitcoin Might Not Reach The Realized Price Again — Look Into Bitcoin — https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/bitcoin-research/why-bitcoin-might-not-reach-the-realized-price-again/
7. 3 gold demand trends in Q2 2026: Jewellery and ETFs fall, central bank buying soars 411% — Upstox (summarising World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026) — https://upstox.com/news/personal-finance/commodities/3-gold-demand-trends-in-q2-2026-jewellery-and-et-fs-fall-central-bank-buying-soars-411/article-198103/

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.