---
title: "Valuation Lens — November 4, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-11-04"
data_cutoff: "2026-11-04T18:35:00-05:00"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "valuation_lens_2026-11-04_r1"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-11-04/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — November 4, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Nov 4, 2026, 6:35 PM EST  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.39% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Bonds, emerging markets and China screen modestly cheap; US large caps and crude oil screen expensive with the 10-year real yield at 2.64%.**

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.39% sets a demanding hurdle, and a 2.64% 10-year real yield near the top of its 10-year range raises the discount rate applied to every long-duration asset.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Fixed Income | BND | +1.1 | Somewhat cheap | 101.5 | 99.4–103.6 | +1.5% | +5.8% | +1.4% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +0.9 | Somewhat cheap | 106.0 | 96.0–117.0 | +6.0% | +9.5% | +5.1% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +0.7 | Somewhat cheap | 105.0 | 94.0–117.1 | +5.0% | +9.0% | +4.6% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +0.2 | Fair | 101.0 | 93.3–108.7 | +1.0% | +8.0% | +3.6% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -0.2 | Fair | 99.0 | 91.3–106.7 | -1.0% | +7.5% | +3.1% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | -0.3 | Fair | 97.0 | 81.0–114.6 | -3.0% | +3.0% | -1.4% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.7 | Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | 87.6–104.4 | -4.0% | +6.0% | +1.6% |
| Metals | GLD | -0.9 | Somewhat expensive | 94.0 | 83.0–104.0 | -6.0% | +2.0% | -2.4% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.0 | Somewhat expensive | 95.0 | 87.3–102.7 | -5.0% | +6.0% | +1.6% |
| Energy | USO | -1.5 | Expensive | 90.0 | 79.0–100.0 | -10.0% | -3.0% | -7.4% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.6 | Expensive | 92.0 | 85.0–99.0 | -8.0% | +5.5% | +1.1% |

### Fixed Income — +1.1 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 97.3, P25 99.4, median 101.5, P75 103.6, P90 106.0. The market price sits at the 32.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.8%, P10 +0.5% to P90 +10.8%. Starting yield carry plus duration-scaled price change across the justified-yield scenarios, with one-third of the fair-value gap assumed to close within a year; scenario spread reflects a 1-year yield-change distribution consistent with current rate volatility.

**Probability note:** the 64% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +0.9 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.0, P25 96.0, median 106.0, P75 117.0, P90 129.0. The market price sits at the 35.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +9.5%, P10 -17.0% to P90 +33.0%. Dividend yield of about 2.8% plus haircut forward earnings growth plus partial (about one-third) closing of the fair-value gap, with a dispersion consistent with emerging-market equity volatility and currency risk.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +0.7 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.1, P25 94.0, median 105.0, P75 117.1, P90 130.3. The market price sits at the 38.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +9.0%, P10 -22.0% to P90 +37.0%. Dividend yield of about 3% plus haircut earnings growth plus partial closing of the fair-value gap, with wide dispersion for policy, geopolitical and currency risk.

### Europe Equities — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.6, P25 93.3, median 101.0, P75 108.7, P90 117.5. The market price sits at the 46.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.0%, P10 -13.0% to P90 +26.0%. Dividend and buyback yield of about 3.2% plus mid-single-digit earnings growth with no assumed valuation change, in US-dollar terms with currency dispersion.

### Japan Equities — -0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.5, P25 91.3, median 99.0, P75 106.7, P90 114.4. The market price sits at the 53.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +26.0%. Dividend and buyback yield of about 2.5% plus mid-to-high single-digit earnings growth with no assumed valuation change, in US-dollar terms with currency dispersion.

### Crypto — -0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 66.6, P25 81.0, median 97.0, P75 114.6, P90 133.8. The market price sits at the 54.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.0%, P10 -45.0% to P90 +65.0%. Scenario-weighted change in network value relative to realized value, with no cash yield and a very wide dispersion reflecting realized crypto volatility.

### Real Estate — -0.7 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 78.0, P25 87.6, median 96.0, P75 104.4, P90 112.8. The market price sits at the 61.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +25.0%. Distribution yield of about 3.8% plus mid-single-digit FFO growth less partial closing of the fair-value gap, with dispersion consistent with REIT equity volatility and rate sensitivity.

### Metals — -0.9 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 71.0, P25 83.0, median 94.0, P75 104.0, P90 113.0. The market price sits at the 65.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.0%, P10 -18.0% to P90 +22.0%. No carry; long-run real price drift plus continued official-sector demand, less partial closing of the fair-value gap, with dispersion consistent with recent gold volatility.

**Probability note:** the 44% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 71%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.0 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 78.5, P25 87.3, median 95.0, P75 102.7, P90 110.4. The market price sits at the 66.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -13.0% to P90 +23.0%. Dividend yield of about 3.6% plus mid-single-digit earnings growth less partial closing of the fair-value gap, in US-dollar terms with currency dispersion.

### Energy — -1.5 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 67.0, P25 79.0, median 90.0, P75 100.0, P90 109.0. The market price sits at the 75.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -3.0%, P10 -38.0% to P90 +32.0%. Expected crude spot path from the official forecast plus positive roll yield from a backwardated futures curve, less partial convergence toward the modeled fair-value range, with very wide supply-disruption dispersion.

**Probability note:** the 39% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### US Equities — -1.6 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 77.0, P25 85.0, median 92.0, P75 99.0, P90 106.0. The market price sits at the 77.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -15.0% to P90 +23.0%. Shareholder yield of about 2% plus forward earnings growth haircut for record margins, less partial (about one-quarter) closing of the fair-value gap, with dispersion consistent with large-cap equity volatility.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: October 30, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-october-30-2026
2. Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2026 release) — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
3. P/E Ratios by Country 2026 — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/pe-ratios-by-country/
4. Hong Kong (Hang Seng) P/E & CAPE 2026 — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/hang-seng-cape/
5. Emerging Markets P/E & Valuations 2026 — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/emerging-markets-valuations/
6. JPMorgan BetaBuilders U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF product snapshot — J.P. Morgan Asset Management — https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/products/jpmorgan-betabuilders-u-s-aggregate-bond-etf-etf-shares-46641q241.md
7. Strength in REIT Operations Underpins Strong Investment Performance — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/news/blog/market-commentary/strength-reit-operations-underpins-strong-investment-performance
8. Goldhub insights: posts from September 2026 (with live gold spot price) — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/09
9. MVRV Bitcoin : définition, calcul, zones et lecture du cycle — CryptoActu — https://cryptoactu.com/guides/comprendre-mvrv-bitcoin/

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.