---
title: "Valuation Lens — November 3, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-11-03"
data_cutoff: "2026-11-03T23:38:13Z"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "cxpw-valuation-lens-2026-11-03-261103001"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-11-03/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — November 3, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Nov 3, 2026, 6:38 PM EST  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.40% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Most asset classes sit close to modeled fair value; developed Pacific equities, crude oil and US large caps screen expensive, and bitcoin screens somewhat cheap against its on-chain cost basis.**

A 4.40% 1-year Treasury par yield and a 2.65% 10-year real yield, near the top of their 10-year ranges, set a demanding hurdle and discount rate for every risk asset.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | +0.5 | Somewhat cheap | 105.0 | 88.2–123.5 | +5.0% | +5.0% | +0.6% |
| Fixed Income | BND | -0.1 | Fair | 99.9 | 98.2–101.5 | -0.1% | +5.4% | +1.0% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | -0.1 | Fair | 99.3 | 91.4–107.6 | -0.8% | +7.0% | +2.6% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | -0.2 | Fair | 99.1 | 92.8–105.6 | -0.9% | +6.5% | +2.1% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -0.3 | Fair | 98.9 | 92.8–105.4 | -1.1% | +6.0% | +1.6% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | -0.4 | Somewhat expensive | 98.2 | 90.8–106.5 | -1.8% | +8.0% | +3.6% |
| Metals | GLD | -0.5 | Somewhat expensive | 97.4 | 88.8–105.7 | -2.6% | +2.0% | -2.4% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -1.0 | Somewhat expensive | 96.3 | 90.8–101.9 | -3.7% | +6.5% | +2.1% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.4 | Expensive | 94.6 | 89.0–100.5 | -5.4% | +6.0% | +1.6% |
| Energy | USO | -1.5 | Expensive | 89.2 | 79.1–100.2 | -10.9% | -6.0% | -10.4% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -2.0 | Expensive | 91.4 | 85.7–97.5 | -8.6% | +4.5% | +0.1% |

### Crypto — +0.5 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 73.9, P25 88.2, median 105.0, P75 123.5, P90 140.9. The market price sits at the 42.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -50.0% to P90 +80.0%. Partial convergence toward the median on-chain fair value with no income, wide fat-tailed dispersion consistent with bitcoin's realized volatility, and a haircut for net fund outflows; probabilities interpolated from the modeled return quantiles.

### Fixed Income — -0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 96.6, P25 98.2, median 99.9, P75 101.5, P90 103.0. The market price sits at the 52.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.4%, P10 -0.5% to P90 +11.0%. Starting yield to maturity as carry, adjusted for the near-zero valuation gap, with a duration-based range for a plus-or-minus one percentage point move in yields; probabilities interpolated from the modeled return quantiles.

**Probability note:** the 59% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — -0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.5, P25 91.4, median 99.3, P75 107.6, P90 115.3. The market price sits at the 52.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -26.0% to P90 +40.0%. Dividend yield of about 2.6% plus earnings growth haircut well below the roughly 28% implied by consensus, with negligible valuation convergence; wide range reflecting policy and earnings-revision risk. Probabilities interpolated from the modeled return quantiles.

### Europe Equities — -0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.2, P25 92.8, median 99.1, P75 105.6, P90 111.6. The market price sits at the 53.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +25.0%. Dividend yield of about 2.9% plus mid-single-digit earnings growth after a haircut to consensus, with negligible valuation convergence; probabilities interpolated from the modeled return quantiles.

### Japan Equities — -0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.5, P25 92.8, median 98.9, P75 105.4, P90 111.3. The market price sits at the 54.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -15.0% to P90 +25.0%. Dividend yield of about 1.9% plus earnings growth haircut from the roughly 27% implied by forward estimates, near-zero valuation convergence and unhedged currency variability; probabilities interpolated from the modeled return quantiles.

### Emerging Markets Equities — -0.4 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.8, P25 90.8, median 98.2, P75 106.5, P90 114.5. The market price sits at the 56.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.0%, P10 -20.0% to P90 +34.0%. Dividend yield of about 2.2% plus earnings growth heavily haircut from the roughly 57% implied by forward estimates, a small valuation drag and a broadly stable dollar; probabilities interpolated from the modeled return quantiles.

### Metals — -0.5 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.0, P25 88.8, median 97.4, P75 105.7, P90 113.1. The market price sits at the 58.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.0%, P10 -20.0% to P90 +24.0%. No income; slight convergence toward the median fair value plus an inflation-linked drift, with dispersion consistent with gold's recent volatility; probabilities interpolated from the modeled return quantiles.

**Probability note:** the 45% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 71%.

### Real Estate — -1.0 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.9, P25 90.8, median 96.3, P75 101.9, P90 107.0. The market price sits at the 67.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -16.0% to P90 +27.0%. Distribution yield plus mid-single-digit FFO growth, less partial convergence toward the median fair value, with a rate-sensitive range; probabilities interpolated from the modeled return quantiles.

### US Equities — -1.4 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.0, P25 89.0, median 94.6, P75 100.5, P90 105.8. The market price sits at the 73.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -15.5% to P90 +24.5%. Shareholder yield plus next-year earnings growth haircut from consensus, less partial convergence toward the median fair value; negative skew reflects margin and rate risk. Probabilities interpolated from the modeled return quantiles.

### Energy — -1.5 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 70.7, P25 79.1, median 89.2, P75 100.2, P90 110.6. The market price sits at the 74.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -6.0%, P10 -42.0% to P90 +32.0%. Spot crude converging partway toward the official 2027 forecast path, partly offset by roll gains while the futures curve stays in backwardation, with very wide supply-shock dispersion; probabilities interpolated from the modeled return quantiles.

**Probability note:** the 36% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -2.0 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 80.7, P25 85.7, median 91.4, P75 97.5, P90 103.1. The market price sits at the 82.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.5%, P10 -15.0% to P90 +23.0%. Dividend yield of about 3.5% plus modest earnings growth, less partial convergence toward the median fair value; probabilities interpolated from the modeled return quantiles.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: October 30, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-october-30-2026
2. Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2026 release) — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
3. MSCI Europe 600 Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/758041/msci-europe-600-index
4. MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/891800/msci-em-emerging-markets-index-2
5. MSCI China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/302400/msci-china-index
6. MSCI Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/939200/msci-japan-index
7. MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/991400/msci-pacific-ex-japan-index
8. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) — Vanguard — https://www.vanguardsouthamerica.com/en/product/etf/fixed-income/0928/vanguard-total-bond-market-etf
9. Strength in REIT Operations Underpins Strong Investment Performance — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/news/blog/market-commentary/strength-reit-operations-underpins-strong-investment-performance
10. MVRV Bitcoin : définition, calcul, zones et lecture du cycle — CryptoActu — https://cryptoactu.com/guides/comprendre-mvrv-bitcoin/
11. Gold Weekly Price Forecast – Gold Tests $4,000 Demand Zone as Lower Real Yields Offer Support — FXEmpire — https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-weekly-price-forecast-gold-tests-4000-demand-zone-as-lower-real-yields-offer-support-1638667

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.