---
title: "Valuation Lens — November 2, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-11-02"
data_cutoff: "2026-11-03T03:32:14Z"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "vl-2026-11-02-001"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-11-02/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — November 2, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Nov 2, 2026, 10:32 PM EST  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.38% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**With real yields near decade highs, U.S., Australian and real-estate equities price above modeled fair value, while China, emerging-market equities and core bonds screen modestly cheap.**

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.38% sets the annual hurdle, with the curve rising to 4.91% at 10 years and a 2.62% 10-year real yield near the top of its 10-year range.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +0.8 | Somewhat cheap | 105.1 | 95.0–114.6 | +5.1% | +9.0% | +4.6% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +0.8 | Somewhat cheap | 104.8 | 95.1–114.0 | +4.8% | +9.5% | +5.1% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.7 | Somewhat cheap | 101.2 | 98.3–104.0 | +1.2% | +5.6% | +1.2% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +0.5 | Somewhat cheap | 102.6 | 95.0–110.5 | +2.6% | +8.5% | +4.1% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | +0.2 | Fair | 102.5 | 82.7–123.2 | +2.5% | +3.0% | -1.4% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -1.0 | Somewhat expensive | 95.4 | 88.2–102.4 | -4.6% | +7.0% | +2.6% |
| Metals | GLD | -1.2 | Somewhat expensive | 89.8 | 76.7–102.4 | -10.3% | +1.0% | -3.4% |
| Energy | USO | -1.4 | Expensive | 91.3 | 82.0–100.9 | -8.8% | -2.0% | -6.4% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.5 | Expensive | 92.5 | 83.9–100.2 | -7.5% | +6.0% | +1.6% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -1.5 | Expensive | 92.8 | 85.1–100.0 | -7.3% | +6.5% | +2.1% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.8 | Expensive | 91.4 | 84.2–98.4 | -8.6% | +5.5% | +1.1% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +0.8 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.6, P25 95.0, median 105.1, P75 114.6, P90 122.8. The market price sits at the 36.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +9.0%, P10 -20.0% to P90 +33.0%. Dividend yield (2.4%) plus haircut consensus earnings growth plus partial (about one-quarter) convergence toward median fair value, with dispersion scaled to China equity volatility.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +0.8 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 86.2, P25 95.1, median 104.8, P75 114.0, P90 122.1. The market price sits at the 36.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +9.5%, P10 -15.0% to P90 +30.0%. Dividend yield (2.0%) plus haircut earnings growth plus partial convergence toward median fair value, with dispersion scaled to emerging-market equity volatility.

### Fixed Income — +0.7 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 95.6, P25 98.3, median 101.2, P75 104.0, P90 106.5. The market price sits at the 39.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.6%, P10 -1.6% to P90 +12.8%. Starting yield to maturity (about 5.4% after October's rally) plus partial price convergence toward fair yield, with dispersion from a 5.74-year duration and yield-change volatility.

**Probability note:** the 59% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Europe Equities — +0.5 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.2, P25 95.0, median 102.6, P75 110.5, P90 117.7. The market price sits at the 40.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.5%, P10 -12.0% to P90 +25.0%. Dividend and buyback yield (about 3.4%) plus haircut earnings growth plus partial convergence toward median fair value, in U.S. dollar terms with currency risk inside the dispersion.

### Crypto — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 65.2, P25 82.7, median 102.5, P75 123.2, P90 142.2. The market price sits at the 46.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.0%, P10 -50.0% to P90 +85.0%. No income; small valuation-convergence drift with dispersion scaled to bitcoin's historical volatility. Low reliability.

### Japan Equities — -1.0 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.6, P25 88.2, median 95.4, P75 102.4, P90 108.5. The market price sits at the 67.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -13.0% to P90 +24.0%. Dividend and buyback yield (about 3.3%) plus mid-single-digit earnings growth less partial valuation convergence, in U.S. dollar terms with currency risk inside the dispersion.

### Metals — -1.2 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 64.8, P25 76.7, median 89.8, P75 102.4, P90 113.5. The market price sits at the 70.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +1.0%, P10 -22.0% to P90 +25.0%. No income; structural official demand offset by partial convergence toward median fair value and a high real-yield opportunity cost, with dispersion scaled to gold volatility.

**Probability note:** the 43% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 71%.

### Energy — -1.4 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 73.9, P25 82.0, median 91.3, P75 100.9, P90 109.8. The market price sits at the 73.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -2.0%, P10 -38.0% to P90 +38.0%. Futures-fund return as expected spot change versus the backwardated curve plus roll yield and collateral income, with dispersion scaled to crude-oil volatility under supply disruption.

**Probability note:** the 41% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### US Equities — -1.5 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 75.8, P25 83.9, median 92.5, P75 100.2, P90 106.8. The market price sits at the 74.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +22.0%. Shareholder yield (about 2%) plus high-single-digit earnings growth less partial (about one-quarter) convergence toward median fair value, with dispersion scaled to U.S. large-cap volatility.

### Real Estate — -1.5 (Expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 78.0, P25 85.1, median 92.8, P75 100.0, P90 106.3. The market price sits at the 75.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -15.0% to P90 +26.0%. Distribution yield (about 3.8%) plus mid-single-digit FFO growth less partial convergence toward median fair value, with dispersion scaled to REIT volatility.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.8 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 77.6, P25 84.2, median 91.4, P75 98.4, P90 104.5. The market price sits at the 79.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +22.0%. Dividend yield (3.6%) plus mid-single-digit earnings growth less partial convergence toward median fair value, in U.S. dollar terms with currency risk inside the dispersion.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: October 30, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-october-30-2026
2. S&P 500 Reporting Second-Highest Net Profit Margin in More Than 15 Years for Q3 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-reporting-second-highest-net-profit-margin-in-more-than-15-years-for-q3-2026
3. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: October 23, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-october-23-2026
4. MSCI Europe Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/990500/msci-europe-index
5. MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/891800/msci-em-emerging-markets-index-2
6. MSCI China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/302400/msci-china-index
7. MSCI Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/939200/msci-japan-index
8. MSCI Australia Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/903600/msci-australia-index
9. MSCI EAFE Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/990300/msci-eafe-index
10. TOPIX forward P/E history (TOPIX予想PER推移チャート) — Kabutore — https://www.kabutore.biz/shisu/topixper.html
11. Product Snapshot - JPMorgan BetaBuilders U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF — J.P. Morgan Asset Management — https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/products/jpmorgan-betabuilders-u-s-aggregate-bond-etf-etf-shares-46641q241.md
12. Nareit REIT Industry Tracker — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/data-research/reit-market-data/report/nareit-reit-industry-tracker
13. Strength in REIT Operations Underpins Strong Investment Performance — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/news/blog/market-commentary/strength-reit-operations-underpins-strong-investment-performance
14. Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2026) — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
15. Crude oil prices sell off more than 7% on Iran peace talk hopes ahead of U.S. midterms — CNBC — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/02/oil-prices-fall-as-iran-us-pursue-diplomacy.html
16. Central bank gold demand bounces back to record high — Central Banking — https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/7976574/central-bank-gold-demand-bounces-back-to-record-high
17. MVRV Bitcoin : définition, calcul, zones et lecture du cycle — CryptoActu — https://cryptoactu.com/guides/comprendre-mvrv-bitcoin/

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.