---
title: "Valuation Lens — October 30, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-10-30"
data_cutoff: "2026-10-30T18:40:00-04:00"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "valuation_lens_2026-10-30_261030001"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-10-30/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — October 30, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Oct 30, 2026, 6:40 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.36% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Real yields near decade highs leave most risk assets priced above modeled fair value; China & Hong Kong screen modestly cheap and core bonds sit near fair.**

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.36% sets the annual hurdle, while a 4.94% 10-year yield and a 2.60% real 10-year yield sit near the top of their 10-year ranges.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +0.7 | Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | 94.6–114.1 | +4.0% | +7.0% | +2.6% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.3 | Fair | 100.5 | 98.1–102.7 | +0.5% | +4.8% | +0.4% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | -0.1 | Fair | 99.0 | 81.5–117.9 | -1.0% | +3.0% | -1.4% |
| Energy | XLE | -0.2 | Fair | 99.0 | 89.6–109.1 | -1.0% | +4.0% | -0.4% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | -0.7 | Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | 89.9–103.8 | -3.0% | +6.0% | +1.6% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | -0.8 | Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | 87.2–104.1 | -4.0% | +6.5% | +2.1% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -0.9 | Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | 88.6–102.8 | -4.0% | +5.5% | +1.1% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -1.4 | Expensive | 94.0 | 86.6–100.8 | -6.0% | +5.0% | +0.6% |
| Metals | GLD | -1.4 | Expensive | 90.0 | 77.9–100.8 | -10.0% | +1.0% | -3.4% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.5 | Expensive | 93.0 | 85.9–99.8 | -7.0% | +5.0% | +0.6% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.7 | Expensive | 92.0 | 84.6–98.8 | -8.0% | +6.0% | +1.6% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +0.7 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 86.1, P25 94.6, median 104.0, P75 114.1, P90 123.2. The market price sits at the 38.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -22.0% to P90 +34.0%. About 2.1% distribution yield plus roughly 6% earnings growth plus a one-quarter convergence toward median fair value; range scaled to the benchmark's high single-country volatility.

### Fixed Income — +0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 95.9, P25 98.1, median 100.5, P75 102.7, P90 104.6. The market price sits at the 44.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.8%, P10 -1.5% to P90 +10.6%. Starting portfolio yield of roughly 4.6% plus a small price effect from the modeled fair-yield path; range from duration times plausible 1-year yield changes.

**Probability note:** the 54% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Crypto — -0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 65.7, P25 81.5, median 99.0, P75 117.9, P90 134.9. The market price sits at the 51.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.0%, P10 -45.0% to P90 +60.0%. No cash yield; modest adoption-driven value growth with near-neutral valuation convergence; range scaled to bitcoin's very high volatility.

### Energy — -0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: XLE (US Energy Sector)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.1, P25 89.6, median 99.0, P75 109.1, P90 118.2. The market price sits at the 52.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.0%, P10 -26.0% to P90 +33.0%. Dividend plus buyback yield of about 5% offset by lower 2027 earnings as the official Brent path falls from $96 to $84; wide commodity-driven range.

**Probability note:** the 49% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 61%.

### Europe Equities — -0.7 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.5, P25 89.9, median 97.0, P75 103.8, P90 109.8. The market price sits at the 61.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -13.0% to P90 +24.5%. About 3.2% dividend yield plus ~1% buybacks plus ~5% earnings growth less a partial convergence toward median fair value; unhedged dollar range.

### Emerging Markets Equities — -0.8 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 79.3, P25 87.2, median 96.0, P75 104.1, P90 111.4. The market price sits at the 63.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -18.5% to P90 +31.0%. About 2.8% dividend yield plus high-single-digit earnings growth less a partial convergence toward median fair value; wide currency-inclusive range.

### Japan Equities — -0.9 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.9, P25 88.6, median 96.0, P75 102.8, P90 108.8. The market price sits at the 65.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -15.0% to P90 +26.0%. About 2.3% dividend yield plus buybacks and mid-single-digit earnings growth less a partial convergence toward median fair value; unhedged yen range.

### Real Estate — -1.4 (Expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 79.9, P25 86.6, median 94.0, P75 100.8, P90 106.8. The market price sits at the 72.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -16.0% to P90 +26.0%. About 3.8% distribution yield plus mid-single-digit cash-flow growth less a partial convergence toward median fair value.

### Metals — -1.4 (Expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 66.9, P25 77.9, median 90.0, P75 100.8, P90 110.5. The market price sits at the 73.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +1.0%, P10 -22.0% to P90 +25.0%. No yield; inflation-linked value growth offset by a partial convergence toward median fair value under high real yields; wide range.

**Probability note:** the 43% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 72%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.5 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 79.5, P25 85.9, median 93.0, P75 99.8, P90 105.8. The market price sits at the 75.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -15.0% to P90 +24.5%. About 3.5% dividend yield plus ~4% earnings growth less a partial convergence toward median fair value; unhedged currency range.

### US Equities — -1.7 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 77.9, P25 84.6, median 92.0, P75 98.8, P90 104.8. The market price sits at the 78.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -14.5% to P90 +24.5%. About 2.5% shareholder yield plus consensus earnings growth haircut to roughly 9% less a one-quarter convergence toward median fair value; range from the benchmark's historical volatility.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: October 30, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-october-30-2026
2. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: October 23, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-october-23-2026
3. P/E Ratios by Country 2026 — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/pe-ratios-by-country/
4. Europe P/E Ratio & Valuations 2026 — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/europe-pe-ratio/
5. CAPE Ratios by Country 2026 — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/cape-ratios-by-country/
6. iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239619/ishares-china-large-cap-etf
7. Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2026) — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
8. ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (ICE Data Indices) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2
9. ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLC0A0CM) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (ICE Data Indices) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM
10. Nareit REIT Industry Tracker Q2 2026 — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/data-research/reit-market-data/report/nareit-reit-industry-tracker
11. Bitcoin Price Last 6 Months — StatMuse Money — https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask/bitcoin-price-last-6-months
12. EM gains but discount to developed markets deepens — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/markets-in-motion/visualizations/em-gains-but-discount-to-developed-markets-deepens
13. Central banks bought far less gold than thought at start of year — Engineering News (Bloomberg, citing World Gold Council) — https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/central-banks-bought-far-less-gold-than-thought-at-start-of-year-2026-07-30
14. MVRV Bitcoin : définition, calcul, zones et lecture du cycle — CryptoActu — https://cryptoactu.com/guides/comprendre-mvrv-bitcoin/

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.