---
title: "Valuation Lens — October 29, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-10-29"
data_cutoff: "2026-10-29T18:56:00-04:00"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "valuation-lens-2026-10-29-r1"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-10-29/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — October 29, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Oct 29, 2026, 6:56 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.42% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Oil and US large caps screen expensive against modeled fair value while emerging markets, high-quality bonds and China screen modestly cheap; no asset class clears the 4.42% 1-year Treasury by a wide modeled margin, so cash-like Treasuries remain a competitive, lower-uncertainty alternative.**

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.42% sets the annual hurdle, with the 10-year at 4.98% and the 10-year real yield at 2.63%, near the top of its 10-year range.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +0.9 | Somewhat cheap | 104.6 | 96.3–113.2 | +4.6% | +8.0% | +3.6% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.7 | Somewhat cheap | 101.3 | 98.5–104.2 | +1.3% | +5.3% | +0.9% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +0.7 | Somewhat cheap | 104.3 | 94.3–114.6 | +4.3% | +7.5% | +3.1% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | +0.6 | Somewhat cheap | 102.4 | 95.9–108.7 | +2.4% | +7.0% | +2.6% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | -0.1 | Fair | 98.1 | 76.7–120.6 | -1.9% | +3.0% | -1.4% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | -0.3 | Fair | 98.6 | 91.6–105.8 | -1.4% | +6.5% | +2.1% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -1.0 | Somewhat expensive | 95.4 | 88.2–102.4 | -4.6% | +5.5% | +1.1% |
| Metals | GLD | -1.1 | Somewhat expensive | 93.4 | 84.2–102.4 | -6.6% | +2.0% | -2.4% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.1 | Somewhat expensive | 94.4 | 86.5–102.0 | -5.6% | +5.0% | +0.6% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.6 | Expensive | 92.7 | 85.8–99.3 | -7.3% | +5.0% | +0.6% |
| Energy | USO | -1.8 | Expensive | 86.6 | 76.3–97.2 | -13.4% | -8.0% | -12.4% |

### Emerging Markets Equities — +0.9 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.9, P25 96.3, median 104.6, P75 113.2, P90 121.0. The market price sits at the 35.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.0%, P10 -17.6% to P90 +33.6%. Dividend yield plus normalized earnings growth plus 20% annual convergence toward median fair value, with a 20% annualized dispersion; USD terms.

### Fixed Income — +0.7 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 96.0, P25 98.5, median 101.3, P75 104.2, P90 106.9. The market price sits at the 37.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.3%, P10 -2.4% to P90 +13.0%. Starting carry anchored to the Treasury curve plus a modest spread, plus partial convergence toward median fair value, with 6% annualized dispersion from duration and spread moves.

**Probability note:** the 56% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +0.7 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.6, P25 94.3, median 104.3, P75 114.6, P90 124.1. The market price sits at the 38.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -25.8% to P90 +40.8%. Dividend yield plus earnings growth plus 20% annual convergence toward median fair value, with a 26% annualized dispersion reflecting policy and geopolitical risk; USD terms.

### Real Estate — +0.6 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 89.9, P25 95.9, median 102.4, P75 108.7, P90 114.3. The market price sits at the 40.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -16.1% to P90 +30.1%. Distribution yield plus FFO growth plus 20% annual convergence toward median fair value, with an 18% annualized dispersion.

### Crypto — -0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 57.9, P25 76.7, median 98.1, P75 120.6, P90 141.3. The market price sits at the 52.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.0%, P10 -61.1% to P90 +67.1%. No income; modest adoption-driven drift less a real-rate carry penalty, with a 50% annualized dispersion.

### Europe Equities — -0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.5, P25 91.6, median 98.6, P75 105.8, P90 112.4. The market price sits at the 55.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +27.0%. Dividend yield plus haircut earnings growth with negligible valuation convergence, with a 16% annualized dispersion; USD terms.

### Japan Equities — -1.0 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.6, P25 88.2, median 95.4, P75 102.4, P90 108.5. The market price sits at the 67.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -16.3% to P90 +27.3%. Dividend yield plus earnings growth less 20% annual convergence toward median fair value, with a 17% annualized dispersion; USD terms.

### Metals — -1.1 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 75.8, P25 84.2, median 93.4, P75 102.4, P90 110.4. The market price sits at the 69.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.0%, P10 -21.1% to P90 +25.1%. No income; institutional price paths blended with partial convergence toward median fair value and a real-rate carry penalty, with an 18% annualized dispersion.

**Probability note:** the 45% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 72%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.1 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 79.3, P25 86.5, median 94.4, P75 102.0, P90 108.8. The market price sits at the 68.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -16.8% to P90 +26.8%. Dividend yield plus modest earnings growth less 20% annual convergence toward median fair value, with a 17% annualized dispersion; USD terms.

### US Equities — -1.6 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 79.3, P25 85.8, median 92.7, P75 99.3, P90 105.0. The market price sits at the 77.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -15.5% to P90 +25.5%. Dividend yield plus forward earnings growth less 25% annual convergence toward median fair value and partial margin normalization, with a 16% annualized dispersion.

### Energy — -1.8 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 67.1, P25 76.3, median 86.6, P75 97.2, P90 106.8. The market price sits at the 80.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -8.0%, P10 -52.9% to P90 +36.9%. Expected spot path toward official and institutional forecasts, plus futures roll and collateral yield, with a 35% annualized dispersion reflecting geopolitical supply risk.

**Probability note:** the 36% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 61%.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: October 23, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-october-23-2026
2. ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), data from ICE Data Indices — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/bamlh0a0hym2
3. Emerging Markets P/E & Valuations 2026 — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/emerging-markets-valuations/
4. Europe P/E Ratio & Valuations 2026 — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/europe-pe-ratio/
5. Japan (Nikkei 225) P/E & CAPE Ratio 2026 — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/japan-nikkei-pe-cape/
6. Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2026) — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
7. The altii-BTC-Report 2026-10-29 — altii — https://www.altii.de/the-altii-btc-report-2026-10-29/
8. The State of REITs: October 2026 Edition — 2nd Market Capital Advisory Corp — https://www.2ndmarketcapital.com/2026/10/28/the-state-of-reits-october-2026-edition/
9. World Bank lifts copper price outlook by 18% — MINING.COM — https://www.mining.com/world-bank-lifts-copper-price-outlook-by-18/
10. Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 — Central Banks — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026/central-banks

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.