---
title: "Valuation Lens — October 27, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-10-27"
data_cutoff: "2026-10-27T22:41:27Z"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "valuation-lens-2026-10-27-261027001"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-10-27/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — October 27, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Oct 27, 2026, 6:41 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.50% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**US large caps, Australia-led Pacific equities and crude oil trade above modeled fair value, China and Hong Kong and core bonds screen cheapest, and a 4.50% 1-year Treasury leaves thin expected edges for most risk assets.**

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.50% sets the annual hurdle, with the curve rising to 4.99% at 10 years and a 2.64% 10-year real yield near the top of its 20-year range.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +1.4 | Cheap | 108.0 | 99.2–118.1 | +8.0% | +9.0% | +4.5% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.9 | Somewhat cheap | 101.2 | 99.0–103.2 | +1.2% | +5.3% | +0.8% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +0.2 | Fair | 101.0 | 93.6–109.1 | +1.0% | +8.0% | +3.5% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | +0.2 | Fair | 101.0 | 94.3–108.4 | +1.0% | +6.0% | +1.5% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | +0.2 | Fair | 102.0 | 85.1–123.6 | +2.0% | +4.0% | -0.5% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -0.2 | Fair | 99.0 | 92.9–105.8 | -1.0% | +7.0% | +2.5% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | -0.3 | Fair | 99.0 | 92.6–105.1 | -1.0% | +7.0% | +2.5% |
| Metals | GLD | -0.8 | Somewhat expensive | 95.0 | 84.9–105.1 | -5.0% | +2.0% | -2.5% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.6 | Expensive | 93.0 | 86.9–99.4 | -7.0% | +5.0% | +0.5% |
| Energy | USO | -1.7 | Expensive | 88.0 | 80.6–98.1 | -12.0% | -4.0% | -8.5% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.8 | Expensive | 92.0 | 84.9–98.4 | -8.0% | +6.0% | +1.5% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +1.4 (Cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 91.3, P25 99.2, median 108.0, P75 118.1, P90 127.2. The market price sits at the 26.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +9.0%, P10 -20.0% to P90 +35.0%. Dividend yield of about 3.5% plus mid-single-digit to high-single-digit earnings growth plus partial re-rating toward the modeled median fair value, with wide policy, geopolitical and earnings-risk dispersion.

### Fixed Income — +0.9 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 97.1, P25 99.0, median 101.2, P75 103.2, P90 105.1. The market price sits at the 35.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.3%, P10 -0.8% to P90 +10.0%. Starting yield near 5.3% as carry, plus duration times modeled 12-month yield changes across the justified-yield scenarios, less a small allowance for credit losses.

**Probability note:** the 57% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 86.9, P25 93.6, median 101.0, P75 109.1, P90 116.4. The market price sits at the 46.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.0%, P10 -16.0% to P90 +29.0%. Dividend yield near 2.8% plus high-single-digit earnings growth led by Taiwan and India, with no net valuation change at the median and wide currency and technology-cycle dispersion.

### Real Estate — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.2, P25 94.3, median 101.0, P75 108.4, P90 115.1. The market price sits at the 46.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -16.0% to P90 +25.0%. Distribution yield near 4% plus low-single-digit cash-flow growth with no net valuation change at the median; dispersion reflects high sensitivity to long-term rates.

### Crypto — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 70.0, P25 85.1, median 102.0, P75 123.6, P90 143.0. The market price sits at the 46.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.0%, P10 -45.0% to P90 +75.0%. No cash flows; the median assumes the on-chain valuation ratio stays near its mid-range, with very wide dispersion reflecting historical drawdowns and adoption-driven rallies.

### Japan Equities — -0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.5, P25 92.9, median 99.0, P75 105.8, P90 111.8. The market price sits at the 54.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -12.0% to P90 +23.0%. Dividend yield near 2.3% plus mid-single-digit earnings growth and continued buybacks, with no net valuation change at the median and currency dispersion for a U.S.-dollar investor.

### Europe Equities — -0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 86.8, P25 92.6, median 99.0, P75 105.1, P90 110.5. The market price sits at the 54.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -13.0% to P90 +24.0%. Dividend yield near 3.2% plus mid-single-digit earnings growth held back by the energy shock, no net valuation change at the median, and euro and sterling currency dispersion.

### Metals — -0.8 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 75.8, P25 84.9, median 95.0, P75 105.1, P90 114.2. The market price sits at the 63.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.0%, P10 -18.0% to P90 +22.0%. No income; a small median return assumes partial drift toward the modeled fair value offset by continued official-sector buying, with wide dispersion from real-yield and geopolitical shocks.

**Probability note:** the 44% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 72%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.6 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.5, P25 86.9, median 93.0, P75 99.4, P90 105.2. The market price sits at the 76.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -13.0% to P90 +20.0%. Dividend yield near 3.8% plus low-single-digit earnings growth, less a small drag from partial multiple normalization, with currency and commodity-cycle dispersion.

### Energy — -1.7 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 73.9, P25 80.6, median 88.0, P75 98.1, P90 107.2. The market price sits at the 78.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -4.0%, P10 -35.0% to P90 +30.0%. Futures-fund return from the official price path easing toward the mid-$80s for Brent, partly offset by roll yield in a backwardated curve and collateral income near Treasury-bill rates; escalation risk fattens the upper tail.

**Probability note:** the 37% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 61%.

### US Equities — -1.8 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 78.5, P25 84.9, median 92.0, P75 98.4, P90 104.2. The market price sits at the 80.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +22.0%. Shareholder yield near 2% plus high-single-digit forward earnings growth, less a drag from partial convergence toward the modeled median fair value; a long-run equity average is used only as a sanity check.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: October 23, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-october-23-2026
2. Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2026) — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
3. Oil ticks lower as Saudi defense minister meets with Iran's president in Tehran to de-escalate — CNBC — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/26/oil-prices-today-wti-brent.html
4. Europe P/E Ratio & Valuations 2026 — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/europe-pe-ratio/
5. P/E Ratios by Country 2026 — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/pe-ratios-by-country/
6. Gold Price in October 2026 - Historical Chart and Market Analysis — PriceGold.net — https://pricegold.net/2026/october/
7. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) — Vanguard — https://www.vanguardsouthamerica.com/en/product/etf/fixed-income/0928/vanguard-total-bond-market-etf
8. MVRV Bitcoin en direct : ratio, zones et historique — CryptoActu — https://cryptoactu.com/mvrv-bitcoin/

---

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.