---
title: "Valuation Lens — October 26, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-10-26"
data_cutoff: "2026-10-26T20:30:00-04:00"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "valuation-lens-2026-10-26-261026001"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-10-26/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — October 26, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Oct 26, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.47% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**With the 10-year Treasury at 5.00% and Brent near $128, high-quality bonds and China screen modestly cheap, while Australia, REITs, gold, US equities and crude oil price above their modeled fair-value medians.**

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.47% sets the annual hurdle, while the 5.00% 10-year yield and 2.66% 10-year real yield sit near the top of their 10-year ranges.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.6 | Somewhat cheap | 100.8 | 98.7–103.1 | +0.8% | +5.4% | +0.9% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +0.6 | Somewhat cheap | 103.3 | 94.0–112.9 | +3.3% | +6.0% | +1.5% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +0.1 | Fair | 100.4 | 90.5–110.1 | +0.4% | +7.0% | +2.5% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | -0.2 | Fair | 97.5 | 77.7–118.2 | -2.5% | +3.0% | -1.5% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -1.1 | Somewhat expensive | 95.3 | 88.5–102.3 | -4.7% | +6.5% | +2.0% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | -1.1 | Somewhat expensive | 94.9 | 87.7–101.9 | -5.1% | +6.0% | +1.5% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.5 | Expensive | 93.1 | 85.7–99.9 | -6.9% | +5.5% | +1.0% |
| Energy | USO | -1.5 | Expensive | 87.8 | 76.8–100.0 | -12.2% | -6.0% | -10.5% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -1.6 | Expensive | 92.4 | 85.2–99.4 | -7.6% | +5.0% | +0.5% |
| Metals | GLD | -1.6 | Expensive | 89.1 | 78.3–99.3 | -10.9% | +2.0% | -2.5% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -2.0 | Expensive | 90.3 | 83.7–97.2 | -9.7% | +5.5% | +1.0% |

### Fixed Income — +0.6 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 96.8, P25 98.7, median 100.8, P75 103.1, P90 105.1. The market price sits at the 40.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.4%, P10 -1.5% to P90 +11.5%. Starting yield to maturity of 5.29% less fees and expected credit losses, plus duration-weighted price change across the justified-yield scenarios and a modest roll-down contribution.

**Probability note:** the 57% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +0.6 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.9, P25 94.0, median 103.3, P75 112.9, P90 121.8. The market price sits at the 40.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -24.0% to P90 +34.0%. Haircut forward EPS growth of about 10%, a 2.4% dividend yield and modest partial convergence toward the fair-value median, with dispersion scaled to China's historical volatility.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.5, P25 90.5, median 100.4, P75 110.1, P90 118.7. The market price sits at the 49.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -17.0% to P90 +28.0%. Normalized EPS growth near 8%, a 2.5% dividend yield and no net valuation convergence, less a margin for cyclical earnings risk, with dispersion scaled to emerging-market volatility.

### Crypto — -0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 60.2, P25 77.7, median 97.5, P75 118.2, P90 137.2. The market price sits at the 53.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.0%, P10 -50.0% to P90 +75.0%. Scenario-weighted price outcomes across the on-chain valuation anchors, with no yield component and very wide dispersion.

### Japan Equities — -1.1 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.3, P25 88.5, median 95.3, P75 102.3, P90 108.6. The market price sits at the 67.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -15.0% to P90 +25.0%. Haircut forward EPS growth near 7%, a 1.9% dividend yield and buyback support, less a partial multiple convergence of about 1.5% a year, in US-dollar terms.

### Europe Equities — -1.1 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.1, P25 87.7, median 94.9, P75 101.9, P90 108.0. The market price sits at the 68.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -15.0% to P90 +24.0%. EPS growth near 6% after an energy-cost haircut to consensus, a 3% dividend yield and partial multiple convergence of about 1.5% a year, in US-dollar terms.

### US Equities — -1.5 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 78.7, P25 85.7, median 93.1, P75 99.9, P90 105.7. The market price sits at the 75.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -15.5% to P90 +22.0%. Forward EPS growth haircut to about 9% from the 16% CY2027 consensus, a 1.2% dividend yield and forward P/E compression from 18.7x toward 17.9x as rates stay high; dispersion reflects equity volatility with a negative skew.

### Energy — -1.5 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 67.6, P25 76.8, median 87.8, P75 100.0, P90 111.4. The market price sits at the 75.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -6.0%, P10 -45.0% to P90 +38.0%. Front-month crude futures exposure: scenario-weighted change in the clearing price over 12 months, partly offset by collateral income and roll yield in a backwardated curve; the futures curve itself was not verified.

**Probability note:** the 38% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 61%.

### Real Estate — -1.6 (Expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 78.6, P25 85.2, median 92.4, P75 99.4, P90 105.5. The market price sits at the 77.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -17.0% to P90 +23.0%. A 3.7% distribution yield plus FFO growth near 5%, less partial valuation convergence of about 2.5% as cap rates adjust to higher Treasury yields.

### Metals — -1.6 (Expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 68.3, P25 78.3, median 89.1, P75 99.3, P90 108.1. The market price sits at the 76.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.0%, P10 -20.0% to P90 +22.0%. No carry; scenario-weighted price change combining sustained official demand with partial pressure from 2.66% real yields, less the fund expense ratio.

**Probability note:** the 44% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 72%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -2.0 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 78.0, P25 83.7, median 90.3, P75 97.2, P90 103.7. The market price sits at the 82.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +22.0%. EPS growth near 6%, a 3.6% dividend yield and partial multiple convergence of about 2.5% a year, in US-dollar terms.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: October 23, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-october-23-2026
2. Earnings Insight, October 23, 2026 — FactSet — https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_102326.pdf
3. Weekly Market Recap, October 26, 2026 — J.P. Morgan Asset Management — https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/americas/us/en/insights/market-insights/wmr/weekly_market_recap.pdf
4. J.P. Morgan releases 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions — J.P. Morgan Asset Management — https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/institutional/about-us/media/press-releases/jp-morgan-releases-2027-long-term-capital-market-assumptions/
5. Vanguard Capital Markets Model return forecasts — Vanguard — https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-return-forecasts.html
6. Shiller PE Ratio — Multpl — https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
7. MSCI Europe Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/990500/msci-europe-index
8. MSCI Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/939200/msci-japan-index
9. MSCI Emerging Markets Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/891800
10. MSCI China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/302400/msci-china-index
11. MSCI Australia Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/903600/msci-australia-index
12. Emerging market equities: Making progress — RBC Wealth Management — https://www.rbcwealthmanagement.com/en-uk/insights/emerging-market-equities-making-progress
13. European Stocks: Reasons to Reconsider — Charles Schwab — https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/european-stocks-reasons-to-reconsider
14. iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239619/ishares-msci-china-etf
15. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239665/ishares-msci-japan-etf
16. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239607/ishares-msci-australia-etf
17. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/bnd/vanguard-total-bond-market-etf
18. ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLC0A0CM) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM
19. ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2
20. Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vnq/vanguard-real-estate-etf
21. REIT Industry Financial Snapshot — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/data-research/reit-market-data/report/reit-industry-financial-snapshot
22. Nareit REIT Industry Tracker, Q2 2026 — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/data-research/reit-market-data/report/nareit-reit-industry-tracker
23. Commercial Property Price Index — Green Street — https://www.greenstreet.com/resources/pricing-index/
24. LBMA Precious Metal Prices — LBMA — https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/lbma-precious-metal-prices
25. Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026
26. Gold Holds Its Ground as Real Yields Surge — Sprott — https://sprott.com/insights/gold-holds-its-ground-as-real-yields-surge/
27. Spot Prices for Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (daily) — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/prices/table.php?show_by=12_series&period=D&table_key=PET_PRI_SPT_S1_D
28. Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026: Global Oil Markets — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php
29. Short-Term Energy Outlook Table 3d: World Crude Oil Production and OPEC Surplus Capacity — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/tables/pdf/3dtab.pdf
30. Coin Metrics Community API: BTC MVRV and price — Coin Metrics — https://community-api.coinmetrics.io/v4/timeseries/asset-metrics?assets=btc&metrics=CapMVRVCur,PriceUSD,CapMrktCurUSD&start_time=2026-10-18&frequency=1d
31. Bitcoin price — CoinGecko — https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
32. S&P 500 (SP500) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500
33. Russell 2000 PE ratio and yields — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/russell-2000-pe-yield/

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.