---
title: "Valuation Lens — October 25, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-10-25"
data_cutoff: "2026-10-25T15:30:00Z"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "valuation-lens-2026-10-25-261025001"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-10-25/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — October 25, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Oct 25, 2026, 11:30 AM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.44% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Core bonds and emerging-market equities sit modestly below modeled fair value, while U.S. large caps, Australia, gold and crude oil trade well above it as a 5.00% 10-year Treasury raises the bar for every risk asset.**

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.44% (investment basis) is the annual hurdle, with the 10-year nominal yield at 5.00% and the 10-year real yield at 2.66%, both near the top of their 10-year ranges.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.8 | Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | 99.0–103.0 | +1.0% | +5.4% | +1.0% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +0.5 | Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | 94.1–112.9 | +3.0% | +7.5% | +3.1% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +0.2 | Fair | 101.0 | 92.2–109.8 | +1.0% | +6.5% | +2.1% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.1 | Fair | 99.5 | 92.8–106.2 | -0.5% | +5.8% | +1.4% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | -0.2 | Fair | 97.9 | 77.8–120.5 | -2.1% | +3.0% | -1.4% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -0.9 | Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | 89.3–102.7 | -4.0% | +5.5% | +1.1% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | -1.0 | Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | 89.9–102.1 | -4.0% | +6.0% | +1.6% |
| Metals | GLD | -1.6 | Expensive | 85.9 | 74.7–98.6 | -14.1% | +1.0% | -3.4% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.8 | Expensive | 89.8 | 80.8–97.9 | -10.2% | +5.0% | +0.6% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.9 | Expensive | 91.0 | 84.3–97.7 | -9.0% | +4.5% | +0.1% |
| Energy | USO | -1.9 | Expensive | 82.9 | 71.7–95.6 | -17.1% | -3.0% | -7.4% |

### Fixed Income — +0.8 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 97.2, P25 99.0, median 101.0, P75 103.0, P90 104.8. The market price sits at the 36.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.4%, P10 -0.5% to P90 +10.5%. Starting yield to worst plus duration-weighted price change across justified-yield scenarios, less a small credit-spread widening allowance; probabilities are read from the modeled return quantiles and are not calibrated.

**Probability note:** the 59% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +0.5 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 86.8, P25 94.1, median 103.0, P75 112.9, P90 122.3. The market price sits at the 41.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -15.0% to P90 +27.0%. Dividend yield plus haircut forward EPS growth plus partial convergence toward the modeled fair-value median, in U.S. dollars with currency and earnings-cycle dispersion; probabilities are read from the modeled return quantiles and are not calibrated.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.3, P25 92.2, median 101.0, P75 109.8, P90 117.7. The market price sits at the 46.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -20.0% to P90 +30.0%. Dividend yield plus buybacks plus haircut earnings growth, with a country-risk premium and wide policy-driven dispersion; probabilities are read from the modeled return quantiles and are not calibrated.

### Real Estate — -0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 86.7, P25 92.8, median 99.5, P75 106.2, P90 112.3. The market price sits at the 52.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.8%, P10 -12.0% to P90 +22.0%. Dividend yield plus FFO growth less a small multiple drag from high Treasury yields, with rate-sensitivity dispersion; probabilities are read from the modeled return quantiles and are not calibrated.

### Crypto — -0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 61.2, P25 77.8, median 97.9, P75 120.5, P90 141.9. The market price sits at the 52.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.0%, P10 -45.0% to P90 +65.0%. Scenario-weighted adoption, liquidity and real-rate regimes around a near-fair starting valuation, with very wide dispersion; probabilities are read from the modeled return quantiles and are not calibrated.

### Japan Equities — -0.9 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.2, P25 89.3, median 96.0, P75 102.7, P90 108.8. The market price sits at the 65.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -13.0% to P90 +22.0%. Dividend yield plus buybacks plus haircut EPS growth less partial convergence to the modeled fair-value median, in unhedged U.S. dollars with yen dispersion; probabilities are read from the modeled return quantiles and are not calibrated.

### Europe Equities — -1.0 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.5, P25 89.9, median 96.0, P75 102.1, P90 107.5. The market price sits at the 67.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -12.0% to P90 +22.0%. Dividend yield plus buybacks plus haircut EPS growth less partial convergence to the modeled fair-value median, in unhedged U.S. dollars with currency dispersion; probabilities are read from the modeled return quantiles and are not calibrated.

### Metals — -1.6 (Expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 65.4, P25 74.7, median 85.9, P75 98.6, P90 110.5. The market price sits at the 77.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +1.0%, P10 -20.0% to P90 +22.0%. No income; scenario-weighted official and investment demand against a 2.66% real-yield opportunity cost, with partial convergence toward the modeled fair-value median; probabilities are read from the modeled return quantiles and are not calibrated.

**Probability note:** the 41% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 72%.

### US Equities — -1.8 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 72.3, P25 80.8, median 89.8, P75 97.9, P90 104.5. The market price sits at the 80.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +20.0%. Dividend yield plus haircut consensus EPS growth less partial multiple compression toward the modeled fair-value median; probabilities are read from the modeled return quantiles and are not calibrated.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.9 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 78.2, P25 84.3, median 91.0, P75 97.7, P90 103.8. The market price sits at the 81.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.5%, P10 -12.0% to P90 +19.0%. Dividend yield plus modest EPS growth less partial multiple compression toward the modeled fair-value median, in unhedged U.S. dollars; probabilities are read from the modeled return quantiles and are not calibrated.

### Energy — -1.9 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 62.4, P25 71.7, median 82.9, P75 95.6, P90 107.5. The market price sits at the 81.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -3.0%, P10 -38.0% to P90 +28.0%. Front-month futures exposure: spot path across supply scenarios plus positive roll yield from steep backwardation plus collateral income; probabilities are read from the modeled return quantiles and are not calibrated.

**Probability note:** the 38% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 61%.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: October 23, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-october-23-2026
2. Earnings Insight, October 23, 2026 — FactSet — https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_102326.pdf
3. P/Es & Yields on Major Indexes — The Wall Street Journal / Birinyi Associates — https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields
4. Guide to the Markets U.S., 4Q 2026 — J.P. Morgan Asset Management — https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/mi-guide-to-the-markets-us.pdf
5. Shiller PE Ratio — multpl — https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
6. MSCI Europe Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/990500/msci-europe-index
7. MSCI Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/939200/msci-japan-index
8. MSCI Emerging Markets Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/891800/msci-em-emerging-markets-index-2
9. MSCI China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/302400/msci-china-index
10. MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/991400/msci-pacific-ex-japan-index
11. MSCI Australia Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/903600/msci-australia-index
12. P/E Ratios by Country — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/pe-ratios-by-country/
13. Corporate Earnings Growth by Country — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/earnings-growth-by-country/
14. Europe P/E Ratio & Valuations — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/europe-pe-ratio/
15. Emerging Markets P/E & Valuations — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/emerging-markets-valuations/
16. Europe P/E Ratio — World PE Ratio — https://worldperatio.com/area/europe/
17. China P/E Ratio — World PE Ratio — https://worldperatio.com/area/china/
18. Australia P/E Ratio — World PE Ratio — https://worldperatio.com/area/australia/
19. BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/bnd/vanguard-total-bond-market-etf
20. iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239566/ishares-iboxx-investment-grade-corporate-bond-etf
21. iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239565/ishares-iboxx-high-yield-corporate-bond-etf
22. iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239456/ishares-710-year-treasury-bond-etf
23. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239454/ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf
24. iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239452/ishares-13-year-treasury-bond-etf
25. iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239467/ishares-tips-bond-etf
26. ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLC0A0CM) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM
27. ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2
28. Vanguard Capital Markets Model forecasts — Vanguard — https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-return-forecasts.html
29. VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate ETF — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vnq/vanguard-real-estate-etf
30. Nareit REIT Industry Tracker — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/data-research/reit-market-data/report/nareit-reit-industry-tracker
31. REIT Industry Financial Snapshot — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/data-research/reit-market-data/report/reit-industry-financial-snapshot
32. U.S. REIT Weekly, October 9, 2026 (BofA Global Research summary) — Finvaulta — https://finvaulta.com/research/bank-of-america/us-reit-weekly-2026-10-09
33. 2026 REIT Trading Trends — Commercial Property Executive — https://www.commercialsearch.com/news/2026-reit-trading-trends/
34. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) — World Gold Trust Services — https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/
35. Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026
36. Gold ETF Holdings and Flows, September 2026 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows/2026/10
37. Silver market deficit expected to widen again this year — Engineering News — https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/silver-market-deficit-expected-to-widen-again-this-year-2026-10-12
38. LME Copper cash settlement table — Westmetall — https://www.westmetall.com/en/markdaten.php?action=table&field=LME_Cu_cash
39. Brent Crude Settles at US$116.72 — The Rio Times — https://www.riotimesonline.com/oil-markets-latam-friday-october-23-2026
40. Brent Crude Futures — Oilprice.com — https://oilprice.com/futures/brent
41. Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
42. Spot Prices for Crude Oil and Petroleum Products — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm
43. United States Oil Fund (USO) — USCF Investments — https://www.uscfinvestments.com/uso
44. Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) — State Street Global Advisors — https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/state-street-energy-select-sector-spdr-etf-xle
45. S&P 500 Energy Sector Earnings Preview, Q3 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-energy-sector-earnings-preview-q3-2026
46. Natural Gas Futures — Oilprice.com — https://oilprice.com/futures/natural-gas
47. iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf
48. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio — Newhedge — https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/mvrv
49. Bitcoin Realized Price — Newhedge — https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/realized-price
50. Bitcoin holds near $81,700 but can BTC break out of its consolidation? — The Crypto Times — https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/10/23/bitcoin-holds-near-81700-but-can-btc-break-out-of-its-consolidation/
51. Bitcoin Historical Data — CoinMarketCap — https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/
52. Ethereum Historical Data — CoinMarketCap — https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/historical-data/
53. S&P 500 Historical Prices — multpl — https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historical-prices
54. Daily Precious Metals Market Report, October 23, 2026 — USAGOLD — https://www.usagold.com/daily-precious-metals-market-report-october-23-2026/
55. Gold Slips 0.30% to US$4,012 as Yields Rise — The Rio Times — https://www.riotimesonline.com/gold-silver-precious-metals-friday-october-23-2026/
56. MSCI Taiwan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/915800/msci-taiwan-index
57. MSCI Korea Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/941000/msci-korea-index
58. MSCI India Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/935600/msci-india-index
59. MSCI Brazil Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/907600/msci-brazil-index

---

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.