---
title: "Valuation Lens — October 24, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-10-24"
data_cutoff: "2026-10-24T02:05:00-04:00"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "cxpw-valuation-lens-2026-10-24-01"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-10-24/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — October 24, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Oct 24, 2026, 2:05 AM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.44% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**With 10-year Treasury yields at 5%, only bonds screen cheap; oil, gold, Australia and Japan sit furthest above modeled fair value.**

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.44% sets the annual cash hurdle, while the 10-year nominal (5.00%) and real (2.66%) yields sit near the top of their 10-year ranges and raise the discount rate for every long-duration asset.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.9 | Somewhat cheap | 101.5 | 99.1–103.9 | +1.5% | +5.5% | +1.1% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +0.1 | Fair | 100.9 | 91.4–111.0 | +0.9% | +7.0% | +2.6% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.9 | Somewhat expensive | 95.6 | 88.0–103.5 | -4.4% | +5.0% | +0.6% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | -1.0 | Somewhat expensive | 95.3 | 88.0–102.9 | -4.8% | +5.0% | +0.6% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | -1.1 | Somewhat expensive | 94.3 | 86.4–102.6 | -5.8% | +6.0% | +1.6% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | -1.1 | Somewhat expensive | 87.0 | 70.2–105.5 | -13.0% | +2.0% | -2.4% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.3 | Expensive | 93.3 | 86.0–100.9 | -6.8% | +5.5% | +1.1% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -1.8 | Expensive | 90.3 | 83.0–97.9 | -9.8% | +4.5% | +0.1% |
| Metals | GLD | -1.8 | Expensive | 85.3 | 74.0–96.9 | -14.8% | +1.0% | -3.4% |
| Energy | USO | -1.9 | Expensive | 83.8 | 72.8–96.0 | -16.2% | -12.0% | -16.4% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -2.0 | Expensive | 89.3 | 82.0–96.9 | -10.8% | +4.0% | -0.4% |

### Fixed Income — +0.9 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 97.0, P25 99.1, median 101.5, P75 103.9, P90 106.2. The market price sits at the 34.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 +0.5% to P90 +10.5%. Starting aggregate-bond yield near 5.1% as carry, plus duration-weighted price change from the yield scenarios and a modest credit-loss allowance; dispersion reflects about 6 years of duration against a 0.6 pp one-sigma yield move.

**Probability note:** the 61% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.2, P25 91.4, median 100.9, P75 111.0, P90 120.4. The market price sits at the 47.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -22.0% to P90 +33.0%. Dividend yield near 2% plus mid-single-digit earnings growth with no assumed re-rating; dispersion reflects high policy, geopolitical and currency volatility.

### Real Estate — -0.9 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.2, P25 88.0, median 95.6, P75 103.5, P90 110.7. The market price sits at the 64.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -13.0% to P90 +21.0%. Distribution yield near 3.8% plus about 4% cash-flow growth, less a partial move toward the fair-value median; dispersion reflects equity-like REIT volatility and rate sensitivity.

### Europe Equities — -1.0 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.7, P25 88.0, median 95.3, P75 102.9, P90 110.0. The market price sits at the 66.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +22.0%. Dividend yield near 3% plus about 5% earnings growth, less a partial move toward the fair-value median; U.S.-dollar translation adds dispersion.

### Emerging Markets Equities — -1.1 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 79.5, P25 86.4, median 94.3, P75 102.6, P90 110.3. The market price sits at the 68.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -17.0% to P90 +27.0%. Dividend yield near 2.5% plus about 10% earnings growth, less a partial move toward the fair-value median; dispersion reflects currency and semiconductor-cycle risk.

### Crypto — -1.1 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 56.0, P25 70.2, median 87.0, P75 105.5, P90 122.9. The market price sits at the 68.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.0%, P10 -45.0% to P90 +55.0%. No cash yield; adoption-driven demand growth offset by a partial move toward the fair-value median, with very wide dispersion from realized volatility.

### US Equities — -1.3 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 79.7, P25 86.0, median 93.3, P75 100.9, P90 108.0. The market price sits at the 72.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -15.0% to P90 +23.0%. Dividend and net buyback yield near 2.5% plus about 10% forward earnings growth, less multiple compression toward the rate-adjusted fair value; dispersion reflects typical large-cap equity volatility.

### Japan Equities — -1.8 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 76.7, P25 83.0, median 90.3, P75 97.9, P90 105.0. The market price sits at the 80.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.5%, P10 -15.0% to P90 +22.0%. Dividend and buyback yield near 3% plus about 6% earnings growth, less de-rating toward the fair-value median; yen translation adds dispersion.

### Metals — -1.8 (Expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 64.1, P25 74.0, median 85.3, P75 96.9, P90 107.7. The market price sits at the 80.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +1.0%, P10 -20.0% to P90 +21.0%. No carry; continued official-sector demand roughly offset by a partial move toward the fair-value median and a high real-yield opportunity cost.

**Probability note:** the 41% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 72%.

### Energy — -1.9 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 63.7, P25 72.8, median 83.8, P75 96.0, P90 107.4. The market price sits at the 81.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -12.0%, P10 -42.0% to P90 +22.0%. Spot price path toward the official forecast as supply recovers, partly offset by positive roll yield from a backwardated futures curve; very wide dispersion for supply-disruption risk.

**Probability note:** the 25% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 61%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -2.0 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 75.7, P25 82.0, median 89.3, P75 96.9, P90 104.0. The market price sits at the 82.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.0%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +20.0%. Dividend yield near 3.5% plus about 4% earnings growth, less de-rating toward the fair-value median; Australian-dollar translation adds dispersion.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: October 16, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-october-16-2026
2. Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2026) — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
3. iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) — fund characteristics — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239619/ishares-msci-china-etf
4. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) — fund characteristics — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239665/ishares-msci-japan-etf
5. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) — fund characteristics — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239607/ishares-msci-australia-etf
6. iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) — fund characteristics — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239637/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-etf
7. iShares Europe ETF (IEV) — fund characteristics — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239736/ishares-europe-etf
8. iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) — fund characteristics — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239726/ishares-core-sp-500-etf
9. Nareit REIT Industry Tracker (Q2 2026) — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/data-research/reit-market-data/report/nareit-reit-industry-tracker
10. MVRV Explained — BIT Knowledge Hub — https://www.bit.com/knowledge-hub/mvrv-explained
11. Gold demand steadies as prices cool, but buying by central banks picks up — Eyewitness News (reporting World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026) — https://www.ewn.co.za/2026/07/30/gold-demand-steadies-as-prices-cool-but-buying-by-central-banks-picks-up

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.