---
title: "Valuation Lens — October 22, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-10-22"
data_cutoff: "2026-10-22T23:00:00Z"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "cxpw-valuation-lens-2026-10-22-261022001"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-10-22/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — October 22, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Oct 22, 2026, 7:00 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.41% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Chinese and emerging-market equities screen cheapest against today's modeled fair value, while crude oil, Developed Pacific and US equities screen expensive with real yields near decade highs.**

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.41% sets a demanding hurdle, with the 10-year real yield of 2.64% near the top of its 10-year range raising the discount rate applied to every long-duration asset.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +1.7 | Cheap | 108.6 | 101.2–116.4 | +8.6% | +9.0% | +4.6% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +1.2 | Somewhat cheap | 106.2 | 98.1–115.2 | +6.2% | +8.0% | +3.6% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.7 | Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | 98.7–103.2 | +1.0% | +5.6% | +1.2% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +0.1 | Fair | 100.4 | 93.8–107.5 | +0.4% | +7.0% | +2.6% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | +0.1 | Fair | 101.3 | 85.2–119.4 | +1.3% | +5.0% | +0.6% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -0.2 | Fair | 99.2 | 93.0–105.1 | -0.8% | +7.0% | +2.6% |
| Metals | GLD | -0.3 | Fair | 97.8 | 88.1–108.6 | -2.2% | +3.0% | -1.4% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.1 | Somewhat expensive | 95.5 | 88.3–101.9 | -4.5% | +6.5% | +2.1% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -1.1 | Somewhat expensive | 96.4 | 90.7–101.7 | -3.6% | +6.0% | +1.6% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.8 | Expensive | 92.3 | 86.4–98.6 | -7.7% | +5.5% | +1.1% |
| Energy | USO | -2.2 | Expensive | 85.2 | 77.1–94.2 | -14.8% | -5.0% | -9.4% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +1.7 (Cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 94.9, P25 101.2, median 108.6, P75 116.4, P90 123.8. The market price sits at the 21.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +9.0%, P10 -22.0% to P90 +39.0%. Dividend yield of about 2.4% plus haircut consensus earnings growth plus partial convergence toward median fair value, with return dispersion scaled to the benchmark's historical volatility.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +1.2 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 91.5, P25 98.1, median 106.2, P75 115.2, P90 123.8. The market price sits at the 30.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.0%, P10 -20.0% to P90 +35.0%. Dividend yield of about 2.5% plus haircut earnings growth (discounting peak-cycle semiconductor earnings) plus partial convergence toward median fair value, with dispersion scaled to benchmark volatility.

### Fixed Income — +0.7 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 96.5, P25 98.7, median 101.0, P75 103.2, P90 105.1. The market price sits at the 38.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.6%, P10 -0.8% to P90 +12.0%. Starting yield to worst of 5.42% plus a small price gain from partial convergence to median fair value, less expected credit losses, with yield-change scenarios translated through duration.

**Probability note:** the 59% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Europe Equities — +0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.1, P25 93.8, median 100.4, P75 107.5, P90 114.1. The market price sits at the 48.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -13.5% to P90 +27.0%. Dividend yield of about 2.9% plus haircut consensus earnings growth with no assumed valuation change, with dispersion scaled to benchmark volatility.

### Crypto — +0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 72.0, P25 85.2, median 101.3, P75 119.4, P90 136.5. The market price sits at the 47.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -52.0% to P90 +62.0%. No income; small drift from adoption scenarios with dispersion scaled to Bitcoin's realized volatility.

### Japan Equities — -0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.1, P25 93.0, median 99.2, P75 105.1, P90 110.2. The market price sits at the 53.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -16.0% to P90 +29.0%. Dividend yield of about 1.8% plus buyback yield and haircut consensus earnings growth with no assumed valuation change, with dispersion scaled to benchmark volatility including currency.

### Metals — -0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 80.2, P25 88.1, median 97.8, P75 108.6, P90 118.9. The market price sits at the 55.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.0%, P10 -22.5% to P90 +28.5%. No income; partial weight on institutional forecast paths offset by real-yield headwinds, with dispersion scaled to gold's realized volatility.

**Probability note:** the 47% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 72%.

### US Equities — -1.1 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.4, P25 88.3, median 95.5, P75 101.9, P90 107.2. The market price sits at the 67.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -15.0% to P90 +25.0%. Dividend and buyback yield of about 2.5% plus haircut consensus earnings growth plus partial convergence toward median fair value, with negatively skewed dispersion scaled to benchmark volatility.

### Real Estate — -1.1 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.4, P25 90.7, median 96.4, P75 101.7, P90 106.2. The market price sits at the 67.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -16.0% to P90 +27.5%. Dividend yield of about 3.6% plus funds-from-operations growth of about 4% less a small valuation drag toward median fair value, with dispersion scaled to benchmark volatility.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.8 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.3, P25 86.4, median 92.3, P75 98.6, P90 104.4. The market price sits at the 79.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -15.0% to P90 +25.0%. Dividend yield of about 3.6% plus single-digit earnings growth less partial de-rating toward median fair value, with dispersion scaled to benchmark volatility including currency.

### Energy — -2.2 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 70.5, P25 77.1, median 85.2, P75 94.2, P90 102.8. The market price sits at the 86.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -5.0%, P10 -40.0% to P90 +30.0%. Collateral yield plus roll return from the backwardated futures curve, less expected normalization of front-month crude as supply recovers, with very wide dispersion for disruption risk.

**Probability note:** the 36% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 61%.

## Sources

1. Earnings Insight, October 16, 2026 — FactSet — https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_101626.pdf
2. P/Es & Yields on Major Indexes — The Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields
3. Shiller PE Ratio — multpl.com — https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
4. October: The Q4 Reload — Citadel Securities — https://www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-insights/global-market-intelligence/october-the-q4-reload/
5. Goldman Sachs sees S&P 500 earnings at $415 in 2027 but warns narrow leadership is a risk — investingLive — https://investinglive.com/stock-market-update/goldman-sachs-sees-s-p-500-earnings-at-415-in-2027-but-warns-narrow-leadership-is-a-risk/
6. Equity risk premium: investing in stocks versus bonds — Fortune — https://fortune.com/2026/09/29/equity-risk-premium-investing-stocks-versus-bonds/
7. Health Care Sector Valuation — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/health-care-sector-valuation/
8. MSCI Europe Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/990500
9. MSCI EMU Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/106400
10. MSCI United Kingdom Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/982600
11. MSCI Germany Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/928000
12. MSCI France Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/925000
13. MSCI Switzerland Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/975600
14. MSCI Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/939200
15. MSCI Japan Small Cap Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/106218
16. Nikkei 225 P/E Ratio Data — Nikkei Inc. — https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/en/nkave/archives/data?list=per
17. iShares JPX-Nikkei 400 ETF (JPXN) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239831/ishares-japan-largecap-etf
18. MSCI China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/302400
19. MSCI China A Onshore Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/133333
20. MSCI Hong Kong Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/934400
21. Hang Seng Index CAPE and Valuation — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/hang-seng-cape/
22. Morning Briefing 2026 archive — Yardeni Research — https://archive.yardeni.com/morning-briefing-2026/
23. MSCI Emerging Markets Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/891800
24. MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/713021
25. MSCI Taiwan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/915800
26. MSCI Korea Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/941000
27. MSCI India Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/935600
28. MSCI Brazil Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/907600
29. MSCI South Africa Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/971000
30. MSCI Australia Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/903600
31. MSCI Singapore Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/998100
32. MSCI New Zealand Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/955400
33. CAPE Ratios by Country — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/cape-ratios-by-country/
34. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/bnd/vanguard-total-bond-market-etf
35. iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239565/ishares-iboxx-high-yield-corporate-bond-etf
36. iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239566/ishares-iboxx-investment-grade-corporate-bond-etf
37. iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239456/ishares-710-year-treasury-bond-etf
38. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239454/ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf
39. iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239452/ishares-13-year-treasury-bond-etf
40. iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239467/ishares-tips-bond-etf
41. ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLC0A0CM) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM
42. ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2
43. Vanguard economic and market outlook: return forecasts — Vanguard — https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-return-forecasts.html
44. J.P. Morgan releases 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions — J.P. Morgan Asset Management (press release reprinted by Finviz) — https://finviz.com/news/404119/jp-morgan-releases-2027-long-term-capital-market-assumptions-projecting-70-return-for-6040-portfolio-over-10-15-years
45. Nareit REIT Industry Tracker — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/data-research/reit-market-data/report/nareit-reit-industry-tracker
46. Commercial Property Price Index — Green Street — https://www.greenstreet.com/resources/pricing-index/
47. Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vnq/vanguard-real-estate-etf
48. The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE) — State Street Global Advisors — https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/the-real-estate-select-sector-spdr-fund-xlre
49. iShares Global REIT ETF (REET) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/268752/ishares-global-reit-etf
50. iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF (REZ) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239545/ishares-residential-and-multisector-real-estate-etf
51. iShares Mortgage Real Estate ETF (REM) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239543/ishares-mortgage-real-estate-capped-etf
52. Pacer Data & Infrastructure Real Estate ETF (SRVR) — Pacer ETFs — https://www.paceretfs.com/products/srvr
53. Short-Term Energy Outlook: Global Oil Markets — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php
54. Spot Prices for Crude Oil and Petroleum Products — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm
55. Short-Term Energy Outlook — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
56. Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (DHHNGSP) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP
57. Dallas Fed Energy Survey, First Quarter 2026 — Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas — https://www.dallasfed.org/news/releases/2026/nr260325des
58. Dallas Fed Energy Survey, Third Quarter 2026 — Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas — https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2026/2603
59. Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) statistics — StockAnalysis — https://stockanalysis.com/etf/xle/
60. S&P 500 Energy Sector Earnings Preview, Q3 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-energy-sector-earnings-preview-q3-2026
61. Gold Price Chart — Kitco — https://www.kitco.com/charts/gold
62. Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026
63. Goldman trims end-2026 gold forecast to $4,650 but holds $5,400 target for 2027 — investingLive — https://investinglive.com/commodities/icymi-goldman-trims-end-2026-gold-forecast-to-4-650-but-holds-5-400-target-for-2027/
64. Silver Price Chart — Kitco — https://www.kitco.com/charts/silver
65. Silver market deficit expected to widen again this year — Engineering News — https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/silver-market-deficit-expected-to-widen-again-this-year-2026-10-12
66. Platinum Quarterly — World Platinum Investment Council — https://platinuminvestment.com/supply-and-demand/platinum-quarterly
67. Copper Price — Kitco — https://www.kitco.com/price/base-metals/copper
68. ICSG sees global refined copper surplus widening in 2027 — Capital.com (Reuters report) — https://capital.com/en-int/news/icsg-sees-global-refined-copper-surplus-widening-in-2027
69. VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) statistics — StockAnalysis — https://stockanalysis.com/etf/gdx/
70. Newmont third quarter 2026 results (Form 8-K) — U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Newmont filing) — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000116472726000041/newmontq32026earningsrelea.htm
71. Cryptocurrency Prices by Market Cap — CoinGecko — https://www.coingecko.com/
72. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio — Glassnode — https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/market.Mvrv?a=BTC
73. Ethereum MVRV Ratio — Glassnode — https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/market.Mvrv?a=ETH
74. Bitcoin Realized Price — Newhedge — https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/realized-price
75. Bitcoin ETF Flow — Farside Investors — https://farside.co.uk/btc/
76. Short-Term Energy Outlook data browser — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/data/browser/
77. Platinum Price Chart — Kitco — https://www.kitco.com/charts/platinum

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.