---
title: "Valuation Lens — October 21, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-10-21"
data_cutoff: "2026-10-21T22:46:32Z"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "cxpw-vl-2026-10-21-001"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-10-21/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — October 21, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Oct 21, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.52% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Europe, core bonds and China screen modestly cheap, while U.S. large caps and gold screen expensive against a 5.13% 10-year Treasury yield.**

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.52% is the annual hurdle, while 10-year nominal and real yields of 5.13% and 2.76% sit near 20-year highs and raise discount rates for long-duration assets.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +0.9 | Somewhat cheap | 104.6 | 97.0–112.5 | +4.6% | +8.0% | +3.5% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.8 | Somewhat cheap | 101.3 | 98.8–103.9 | +1.3% | +5.6% | +1.1% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +0.8 | Somewhat cheap | 105.4 | 94.8–115.7 | +5.4% | +7.5% | +3.0% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +0.6 | Somewhat cheap | 103.6 | 94.6–112.8 | +3.6% | +8.0% | +3.5% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | +0.2 | Fair | 103.1 | 81.7–125.6 | +3.1% | +3.0% | -1.5% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | +0.1 | Fair | 100.6 | 93.6–107.8 | +0.6% | +6.5% | +2.0% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.5 | Somewhat expensive | 97.4 | 89.5–105.0 | -2.6% | +6.0% | +1.5% |
| Energy | XLE | -0.6 | Somewhat expensive | 96.4 | 87.2–105.4 | -3.6% | +3.0% | -1.5% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.2 | Somewhat expensive | 94.4 | 87.2–101.4 | -5.6% | +5.5% | +1.0% |
| Metals | GLD | -1.5 | Expensive | 89.4 | 78.8–99.7 | -10.6% | +1.5% | -3.0% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.7 | Expensive | 91.8 | 84.1–99.0 | -8.2% | +6.0% | +1.5% |

### Europe Equities — +0.9 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 90.2, P25 97.0, median 104.6, P75 112.5, P90 119.7. The market price sits at the 34.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.0%, P10 -11.0% to P90 +25.0%. Assumed dividend yield of about 3% plus mid-single-digit earnings growth and a small partial valuation-convergence term; dispersion reflects historical European equity volatility including currency effects for a U.S.-dollar investor.

### Fixed Income — +0.8 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 96.7, P25 98.8, median 101.3, P75 103.9, P90 106.3. The market price sits at the 36.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.6%, P10 -0.5% to P90 +11.0%. Starting yield to maturity of about 5.4% plus modest price effects from the justified-yield scenarios; dispersion from plausible 1-year yield changes applied to a 5.7-year duration.

**Probability note:** the 60% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +0.8 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.2, P25 94.8, median 105.4, P75 115.7, P90 125.0. The market price sits at the 36.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -20.0% to P90 +33.0%. Assumed dividend yield near 2.8% plus low-to-mid single-digit earnings growth and a partial valuation-convergence term; wide dispersion reflects historical Chinese equity volatility and policy risk.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +0.6 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 86.6, P25 94.6, median 103.6, P75 112.8, P90 121.2. The market price sits at the 39.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.0%, P10 -15.0% to P90 +28.0%. Assumed dividend yield near 3% plus haircut consensus earnings growth and a partial valuation-convergence term; dispersion reflects historical emerging-market equity and currency volatility.

### Crypto — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 62.9, P25 81.7, median 103.1, P75 125.6, P90 146.3. The market price sits at the 46.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.0%, P10 -50.0% to P90 +85.0%. No income; a small positive drift from adoption and the fair-value scenarios with very wide, right-skewed dispersion based on historical bitcoin volatility.

### Japan Equities — +0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.5, P25 93.6, median 100.6, P75 107.8, P90 114.4. The market price sits at the 47.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -12.0% to P90 +23.0%. Assumed dividend yield near 2.3% plus haircut consensus earnings growth with no valuation-convergence term; dispersion reflects historical Japanese equity and yen volatility for a U.S.-dollar investor.

### Real Estate — -0.5 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.3, P25 89.5, median 97.4, P75 105.0, P90 111.8. The market price sits at the 59.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +24.0%. Assumed distribution yield near 4% plus low single-digit cash-flow growth and a small negative valuation-convergence term; dispersion reflects historical REIT volatility and rate sensitivity.

### Energy — -0.6 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: XLE (US Energy Sector)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 78.8, P25 87.2, median 96.4, P75 105.4, P90 113.4. The market price sits at the 60.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.0%, P10 -20.0% to P90 +25.0%. Assumed shareholder yield near 5% offset by earnings normalization as oil prices follow the official forecast lower, plus a small negative valuation-convergence term; wide dispersion reflects commodity-price uncertainty.

**Probability note:** the 47% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 61%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.2 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 80.6, P25 87.2, median 94.4, P75 101.4, P90 107.5. The market price sits at the 70.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -13.0% to P90 +22.0%. Assumed dividend yield near 3.5% plus low-to-mid single-digit earnings growth and a negative valuation-convergence term; dispersion reflects historical Australian equity and currency volatility.

### Metals — -1.5 (Expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 69.2, P25 78.8, median 89.4, P75 99.7, P90 109.0. The market price sits at the 75.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +1.5%, P10 -22.0% to P90 +24.0%. No income; continued official-sector demand offset by a partial pull toward modeled fair value and a high real-yield opportunity cost; dispersion from historical gold volatility.

**Probability note:** the 43% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 72%.

### US Equities — -1.7 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 77.0, P25 84.1, median 91.8, P75 99.0, P90 105.3. The market price sits at the 78.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +22.5%. Shareholder yield near 2% plus haircut consensus earnings growth, less a valuation-convergence drag from the 8% gap to median fair value; dispersion from historical U.S. large-cap volatility.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Preview: Q3 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-preview-q3-2026
2. Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2026) — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/
3. Emerging Markets P/E & Valuations — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/emerging-markets-valuations/
4. P/E Ratios by Country — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/pe-ratios-by-country/
5. iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) — Portfolio Characteristics — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239458/ishares-core-total-us-bond-market-etf
6. Goldhub Insights: Posts from August 2026 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/08
7. MVRV Explained: The On-Chain Metric That Reads Bitcoin's Cost Basis — BIT — https://www.bit.com/knowledge-hub/mvrv-explained

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.