---
title: "Valuation Lens — October 20, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-10-20"
data_cutoff: "2026-10-20T23:30:00Z"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "valuation-lens-2026-10-20-261020001"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-10-20/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — October 20, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Oct 20, 2026, 7:30 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.51% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Higher real yields leave high-quality bonds modestly cheap, while oil, gold, Australia and US large caps trade above modeled current fair value.**

A 4.51% one-year Treasury par yield and a 2.77% 10-year real yield (99th percentile of the past decade) set a demanding hurdle for every risk asset.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Fixed Income | BND | +1.1 | Somewhat cheap | 101.6 | 99.4–103.6 | +1.6% | +5.6% | +1.1% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +0.7 | Somewhat cheap | 104.1 | 94.7–113.0 | +4.1% | +7.5% | +3.0% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +0.2 | Fair | 101.1 | 91.7–110.0 | +1.1% | +7.0% | +2.5% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | -0.1 | Fair | 98.9 | 81.3–118.8 | -1.1% | +3.0% | -1.5% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | -0.3 | Fair | 99.0 | 92.9–105.1 | -1.0% | +6.5% | +2.0% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.5 | Somewhat expensive | 97.6 | 90.2–105.4 | -2.4% | +5.5% | +1.0% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -1.0 | Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | 89.9–102.1 | -4.0% | +6.0% | +1.5% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.6 | Expensive | 91.6 | 84.2–99.4 | -8.4% | +5.5% | +1.0% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.9 | Expensive | 91.0 | 84.3–97.8 | -9.0% | +5.0% | +0.5% |
| Metals | GLD | -2.0 | Expensive | 84.2 | 73.9–95.2 | -15.8% | +1.0% | -3.5% |
| Energy | USO | -2.2 | Expensive | 83.5 | 74.6–93.4 | -16.5% | -6.0% | -10.5% |

### Fixed Income — +1.1 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 97.3, P25 99.4, median 101.6, P75 103.6, P90 105.4. The market price sits at the 31.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.6%, P10 -1.5% to P90 +12.7%. Starting yield to worst (5.37%) plus a modest valuation contribution from partial convergence toward the justified-yield band, with a 5.5% one-year volatility for rate and spread shocks.

**Probability note:** the 58% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +0.7 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.9, P25 94.7, median 104.1, P75 113.0, P90 120.6. The market price sits at the 38.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -24.5% to P90 +39.5%. Dividend yield (2.4%) plus haircut EPS growth (~10%) plus a small partial re-rating toward median fair value, less a risk allowance; 25% one-year volatility.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.9, P25 91.7, median 101.1, P75 110.0, P90 117.6. The market price sits at the 46.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -18.6% to P90 +32.6%. Dividend yield (~2.0%) plus haircut 2027 EPS growth (consensus +19%) less an allowance for semiconductor earnings mean reversion; 20% one-year volatility.

### Crypto — -0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 66.7, P25 81.3, median 98.9, P75 118.8, P90 137.6. The market price sits at the 51.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.0%, P10 -45.0% to P90 +65.0%. Right-skewed scenario distribution with no cash yield: modest median drift from near-fair valuation, with tails set by on-chain cost-basis floors and prior-cycle highs.

### Europe Equities — -0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.5, P25 92.9, median 99.0, P75 105.1, P90 110.5. The market price sits at the 54.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +27.0%. Dividend yield (2.9%) plus mid-single-digit EPS growth with a near-zero valuation contribution; 16% one-year volatility in dollar terms.

### Real Estate — -0.5 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.9, P25 90.2, median 97.6, P75 105.4, P90 112.8. The market price sits at the 58.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -17.6% to P90 +28.6%. Dividend yield (~3.8%) plus mid-single-digit FFO growth less a small valuation drag from the thin cap-rate spread; 18% one-year volatility reflecting rate sensitivity.

### Japan Equities — -1.0 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.5, P25 89.9, median 96.0, P75 102.1, P90 107.5. The market price sits at the 67.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -15.8% to P90 +27.8%. Dividend yield (~1.8%) plus mid-single-digit EPS growth and buyback support, less a modest valuation drag; 17% one-year volatility including unhedged currency risk.

### US Equities — -1.6 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 77.9, P25 84.2, median 91.6, P75 99.4, P90 106.8. The market price sits at the 76.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -15.0% to P90 +26.0%. Shareholder yield (~1.1% dividends plus buybacks) plus haircut forward EPS growth (consensus ~15.6% for 2027) less a valuation drag from partial convergence toward median fair value and a thin equity-risk premium; 16% one-year volatility.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.9 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 78.2, P25 84.3, median 91.0, P75 97.8, P90 103.8. The market price sits at the 81.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -15.5% to P90 +25.5%. Dividend yield (~3.6%) plus low-to-mid single-digit EPS growth less a valuation drag from a premium multiple; 16% one-year volatility in dollar terms.

### Metals — -2.0 (Expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 65.0, P25 73.9, median 84.2, P75 95.2, P90 105.5. The market price sits at the 83.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +1.0%, P10 -22.1% to P90 +24.1%. No carry or yield; a small positive drift from reserve demand offset by a partial pull toward modeled fair value under 2.8% real yields; 18% one-year volatility.

**Probability note:** the 42% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 72%.

### Energy — -2.2 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 67.4, P25 74.6, median 83.5, P75 93.4, P90 102.8. The market price sits at the 86.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -6.0%, P10 -50.9% to P90 +38.9%. Front-month futures exposure: an expected spot decline toward the official 2027 path, partly offset by positive roll yield in a backwardated curve and collateral income; 35% one-year volatility.

**Probability note:** the 38% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 61%.

## Sources

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.