---
title: "Valuation Lens — October 13, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-10-13"
data_cutoff: "2026-10-13T22:50:00Z"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "261013001-valuation-lens-2026-10-13"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-10-13/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — October 13, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Oct 13, 2026, 6:50 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.48% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**US large-cap equities carry the widest premium to modeled economic value in this set, while European equities, the broad US bond market and Chinese equities screen at or below their central fair-value estimates.**

A 4.48% one-year Treasury par yield sets a demanding annual cash hurdle, and a 2.88% ten-year real yield raises the justified discount rate on every long-duration asset in this report.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +0.9 | Somewhat cheap | 102.3 | 98.0–108.1 | +2.3% | +7.8% | +3.3% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.5 | Somewhat cheap | 100.3 | 98.8–102.4 | +0.3% | +5.8% | +1.3% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +0.4 | Somewhat cheap | 100.3 | 93.3–111.3 | +0.3% | +7.5% | +3.0% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | +0.1 | Fair | 100.7 | 94.2–106.7 | +0.7% | +6.4% | +1.9% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +0.1 | Fair | 99.7 | 92.4–109.5 | -0.3% | +8.2% | +3.7% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | 0.0 | Fair | 101.7 | 88.4–111.9 | +1.7% | +6.0% | +1.5% |
| Energy | USO | -0.9 | Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | 87.2–103.2 | -4.0% | +1.2% | -3.3% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -1.0 | Somewhat expensive | 95.6 | 89.2–102.2 | -4.4% | +4.6% | +0.1% |
| Metals | GLD | -1.0 | Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | 87.4–102.7 | -3.0% | +2.5% | -2.0% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.4 | Expensive | 95.8 | 88.8–100.6 | -4.2% | +4.6% | +0.1% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.9 | Expensive | 90.1 | 85.0–97.5 | -9.9% | +3.8% | -0.7% |

### Europe Equities — +0.9 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 93.7, P25 98.0, median 102.3, P75 108.1, P90 112.8. The market price sits at the 34.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.8%, P10 -14.5% to P90 +29.0%. Scenario total return decomposed into sustainable earnings growth of about 6%, a 2.9% cash distribution yield and roughly one percentage point of valuation convergence toward the modelled central fair value, shrunk toward the asset class's unconditional long-run return and widened for unhedged currency translation; quantiles from a two-piece normal fit with an annual dispersion near 17%.

### Fixed Income — +0.5 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 97.2, P25 98.8, median 100.3, P75 102.4, P90 104.1. The market price sits at the 41.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.8%, P10 -1.2% to P90 +12.8%. Starting index yield of about 5.14% as the dominant carry anchor plus roughly 0.8% of price return from partial convergence of the index yield toward the modelled central justified level; dispersion of about 5.5% from a 5.8-year duration applied to a 0.9 percentage point annual yield volatility.

**Probability note:** the 60% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +0.4 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.7, P25 93.3, median 100.3, P75 111.3, P90 119.9. The market price sits at the 44.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -25.8% to P90 +40.0%. Scenario total return from earnings growth of about 9% shrunk toward the asset class's own realised record, a 3.0% combined dividend and buyback yield, and no assumed valuation convergence; dispersion of about 26% reflects policy, governance and capital-access risk.

### Japan Equities — +0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.5, P25 94.2, median 100.7, P75 106.7, P90 112.3. The market price sits at the 47.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.4%, P10 -16.3% to P90 +29.0%. Scenario total return from earnings growth of about 7% after shrinkage, a 1.9% distribution yield with buyback accretion already inside the earnings figure, and no net valuation contribution; dispersion of about 18% reflects unhedged currency translation and domestic policy normalisation.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.0, P25 92.4, median 99.7, P75 109.5, P90 117.5. The market price sits at the 47.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.2%, P10 -18.7% to P90 +34.0%. Scenario total return from earnings growth of about 10% shrunk hard toward the asset class's own realised record, a 2.6% distribution yield and roughly half a point of valuation convergence; dispersion of about 21% reflects currency, semiconductor-cycle and trade-policy risk.

### Crypto — 0.0 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 77.4, P25 88.4, median 101.7, P75 111.9, P90 122.1. The market price sits at the 49.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -48.0% to P90 +74.0%. No cash flow, so the modelled return is the sum of growth in the aggregate on-chain cost basis and the change in the market-value-to-realised-value ratio from a below-median starting point, shrunk heavily for the absence of any usable calibration history and for the dilution and issuance economics of the non-bitcoin holdings; dispersion near 48% with deliberate right skew.

### Energy — -0.9 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 79.8, P25 87.2, median 96.0, P75 103.2, P90 110.3. The market price sits at the 65.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +1.2%, P10 -31.0% to P90 +38.0%. Blended across commodity-tracking and producer-equity holdings: roughly three points of positive roll yield from the current backwardation, a negative valuation contribution as the official forward path falls from $105 to $84 a barrel, and about four points of producer cash distributions on an 8% to 9% free-cash-flow yield; dispersion near 28%.

**Probability note:** the 49% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 61%.

### Real Estate — -1.0 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.4, P25 89.2, median 95.6, P75 102.2, P90 108.1. The market price sits at the 67.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.6%, P10 -19.8% to P90 +28.0%. Scenario total return from a 4.2% distribution yield, about 4% growth in adjusted cash earnings, and roughly two and a half points of negative valuation contribution as the capitalisation-rate spread to the ten-year Treasury partially normalises; dispersion near 19%.

### Metals — -1.0 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 80.1, P25 87.4, median 97.0, P75 102.7, P90 109.1. The market price sits at the 66.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.5%, P10 -23.1% to P90 +27.0%. No carry, and a modest storage and holding cost, so the modelled return is the valuation contribution plus metal-specific supply and demand effects: a negative pull from the modelled central fair value offset by physical deficits in silver and copper and continued official-sector gold buying; dispersion near 20% reflecting the blend of bullion, industrial metals and producer equities.

**Probability note:** the 45% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 72%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.4 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.3, P25 88.8, median 95.8, P75 100.6, P90 105.5. The market price sits at the 72.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.6%, P10 -17.2% to P90 +25.6%. Scenario total return from earnings growth of about 6% shrunk toward the region's own record, a blended 3.6% distribution yield, and roughly three points of negative valuation contribution from the elevated starting multiple; dispersion near 17% including unhedged currency translation.

### US Equities — -1.9 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 79.7, P25 85.0, median 90.1, P75 97.5, P90 103.4. The market price sits at the 82.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.8%, P10 -21.0% to P90 +24.5%. Scenario total return from earnings growth of about 9% including buyback accretion, which shrinks the far higher consensus figure toward a sustainable trend, a 1.15% dividend yield, and roughly six points of negative valuation contribution as a partial move toward the modelled central fair value; dispersion near 17% with deliberate left skew because high starting valuations historically widen the downside tail.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Preview: Q3 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-preview-q3-2026
2. MSCI Europe Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/990500/msci-europe-index
3. MSCI Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/939200/msci-japan-index
4. MSCI Emerging Markets Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/891800/msci-em-emerging-markets-index-2
5. MSCI China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/302400/msci-china-index
6. iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF — BlackRock — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239637/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-etf
7. Short-Term Energy Outlook: Global Oil Markets — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php
8. ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM
9. ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2
10. Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026 — Outlook — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026/outlook
11. The State of REITs: June 2026 Edition — 2nd Market Capital Advisory — https://www.2ndmarketcapital.com/2026/06/17/the-state-of-reits-june-2026-edition/

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.