---
title: "Valuation Lens — October 11, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-10-11"
data_cutoff: "2026-10-12T09:17:00Z"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "cxpw_valuation_lens_2026-10-11"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-10-11/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — October 11, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Oct 12, 2026, 5:17 AM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.47% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Real estate and investment-grade bonds screen closest to economically justified value, while US large-cap equities trade roughly 17% above central modeled fair value against a 10-year real yield near a two-decade high.**

The one-year Treasury par yield of 4.47% sets a demanding annual cash hurdle while the 10-year real yield of 2.91% sits close to its highest level in two decades, raising the discount rate applied to every long-duration asset.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Real Estate | VNQ | +0.8 | Somewhat cheap | 105.8 | 87.9–115.6 | +5.8% | +7.0% | +2.5% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.7 | Somewhat cheap | 101.3 | 99.0–103.5 | +1.3% | +5.3% | +0.8% |
| Metals | GLD | -0.2 | Fair | 99.8 | 89.8–107.9 | -0.2% | +3.0% | -1.5% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | -0.2 | Fair | 99.3 | 89.1–110.1 | -0.7% | +7.0% | +2.5% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | -0.4 | Somewhat expensive | 97.6 | 92.2–102.6 | -2.4% | +7.0% | +2.5% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -0.5 | Somewhat expensive | 91.6 | 89.0–105.2 | -8.4% | +7.0% | +2.5% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -0.5 | Somewhat expensive | 95.7 | 88.0–106.2 | -4.3% | +5.5% | +1.0% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | -0.8 | Somewhat expensive | 95.4 | 89.8–105.5 | -4.6% | +7.0% | +2.5% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | -1.0 | Somewhat expensive | 92.1 | 85.5–108.1 | -7.9% | +2.0% | -2.5% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.9 | Expensive | 85.6 | 80.3–93.0 | -14.4% | +4.0% | -0.5% |
| Energy | USO | -1.9 | Expensive | 91.3 | 81.4–98.0 | -8.7% | -6.0% | -10.5% |

### Real Estate — +0.8 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 79.3, P25 87.9, median 105.8, P75 115.6, P90 119.7. The market price sits at the 36.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +23.0%. Scenario decomposition of distribution yield of about 4.3%, cash-flow growth drawn from the reported 12.4% funds-from-operations growth rate haircut toward the long-run average, and a valuation-change term spanning capitalisation-rate expansion of up to 80 basis points to compression of 40 basis points. The modeled hurdle comparison uses the one-year Treasury par yield of 4.47%.

### Fixed Income — +0.7 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 98.0, P25 99.0, median 101.3, P75 103.5, P90 104.9. The market price sits at the 38.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.3%, P10 -1.0% to P90 +10.8%. Starting yield of about 5.2% on the aggregate plus a duration-weighted capital term spanning a 100 basis point rise to a 100 basis point fall in yields at an assumed duration of 6.0 years, with a small convexity adjustment and a separate allowance for investment-grade spread widening from the current 82 basis points. The modeled hurdle comparison uses the one-year Treasury par yield of 4.47%.

**Probability note:** the 57% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Metals — -0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 78.0, P25 89.8, median 99.8, P75 107.9, P90 112.4. The market price sits at the 52.5th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 46% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 72%.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — -0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 80.0, P25 89.1, median 99.3, P75 110.1, P90 118.7. The market price sits at the 52.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -20.0% to P90 +29.0%. Scenario decomposition of a 7.52% forward earnings yield, a distribution yield of about 2.2%, consensus earnings growth of roughly 15% haircut for delivery risk, and a valuation-change term spanning a de-rating to 11x forward to a re-rating to 15x forward. The modeled hurdle comparison uses the one-year Treasury par yield of 4.47%.

### Europe Equities — -0.4 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.3, P25 92.2, median 97.6, P75 102.6, P90 103.1. The market price sits at the 56.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -10.5% to P90 +23.0%. Scenario decomposition of a 6.72% forward earnings yield, a distribution yield of about 3.2%, earnings growth of roughly 8% haircut for European delivery risk, and a valuation-change term spanning a de-rating to 13.2x forward to a re-rating to 16.0x forward. Currency is carried as an unhedged risk rather than as a central drift because the broad dollar index is roughly flat year over year. The modeled hurdle comparison uses the one-year Treasury par yield of 4.47%.

### Japan Equities — -0.5 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 76.5, P25 89.0, median 91.6, P75 105.2, P90 107.6. The market price sits at the 59.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -12.0% to P90 +22.0%. Scenario decomposition of earnings growth of roughly 9% on the improving return-on-equity path, a distribution yield of about 2.2%, a buyback yield reflecting the current repurchase cycle, and a valuation-change term spanning a de-rating to 14.0x forward to a re-rating to 17.5x. The exposure is unhedged, so the median is haircut for yen risk and for delivery risk on the governance reform path. The modeled hurdle comparison uses the one-year Treasury par yield of 4.47%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -0.5 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.4, P25 88.0, median 95.7, P75 106.2, P90 109.2. The market price sits at the 59.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -12.0% to P90 +17.0%. Scenario decomposition of earnings growth of about 7%, taken as a haircut to the 11% consensus expectation given three flat years, a cash distribution yield of about 3.3%, and a valuation-change term spanning a de-rating to 22.0x trailing to a re-rating to 27.5x. The exposure is unhedged, so the median is haircut for Australian dollar risk. The modeled hurdle comparison uses the one-year Treasury par yield of 4.47%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — -0.8 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.7, P25 89.8, median 95.4, P75 105.5, P90 111.9. The market price sits at the 64.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -16.0% to P90 +24.0%. Scenario decomposition of a 6.27% trailing earnings yield, a distribution yield of about 2.6%, earnings growth drawn from the implied trailing-to-forward gap but heavily haircut because that gap is concentrated in one market, and a valuation-change term spanning a de-rating to 13.0x trailing to a re-rating to 17.0x. Currency is carried as an unhedged risk. The modeled hurdle comparison uses the one-year Treasury par yield of 4.47%.

### Crypto — -1.0 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 76.8, P25 85.5, median 92.1, P75 108.1, P90 125.4. The market price sits at the 67.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.0%, P10 -45.0% to P90 +65.0%. Scenario distribution of price change only, since the asset produces no cash flow. Built from the justified cost-basis multiple range, the opportunity cost of a 4.47% risk-free annual hurdle and a 2.91% real yield, and the pace of marginal exchange-traded demand. The range is deliberately wide and the confidence deliberately low. The modeled hurdle comparison uses the one-year Treasury par yield of 4.47%.

### US Equities — -1.9 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 76.6, P25 80.3, median 85.6, P75 93.0, P90 101.5. The market price sits at the 81.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.0%, P10 -15.0% to P90 +20.0%. Scenario decomposition of forward earnings growth, dividend yield of about 1.1% with net repurchases already captured in per-share earnings growth, and a valuation-change term. The central case pairs about 12% growth in next-twelve-month earnings with the forward multiple easing from 19.1 to 17.5 times, reflecting that the multiple has already fallen from 20.4 at the end of June while the policy path still points higher. The modeled hurdle comparison uses the one-year Treasury par yield of 4.47%. A long-run historical equity return is used only as a sanity check, not as the estimate.

### Energy — -1.9 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 75.6, P25 81.4, median 91.3, P75 98.0, P90 112.2. The market price sits at the 81.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 31% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 61%.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Preview: Q3 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-preview-q3-2026
2. S&P 500 Likely to Report Earnings Growth Above 35% for Q3 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-likely-to-report-earnings-growth-above-35-for-q3
3. ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2
4. ICE BofA US Corporate Index Effective Yield (BAMLC0A0CMEY) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CMEY
5. ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield (BAMLH0A0HYM2EY) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
6. ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLC0A0CM) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM
7. Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
8. Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026: Outlook — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026/outlook
9. Emerging Markets P/E & Valuations — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/emerging-markets-valuations/
10. Europe P/E Ratio & Valuations — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/europe-pe-ratio/
11. Compelling Valuations in Japan — Hennessy Funds — https://www.hennessyfunds.com/insights/investment-idea-japan-valuations
12. Australian (ASX) Market Analysis & Valuation — Simply Wall St — https://simplywall.st/markets/au
13. Nareit REIT Industry Tracker, Q2 2026 — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/data-research/reit-market-data/report/nareit-reit-industry-tracker
14. Silver Is Headed for a Sixth Straight Year of Supply Shortfall — GlobeNewswire — https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/10/09/3378127/0/en/silver-is-headed-for-a-sixth-straight-year-of-supply-shortfall.html
15. MVRV & MVRV Z-Score — Bitcoin's cost-basis valuation metric — btclyzer — https://btclyzer.com/learn/mvrv-explained

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.