---
title: "Valuation Lens — October 7, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-10-07"
data_cutoff: "2026-10-07T23:05:00Z"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "cxpw_vl_20261007_261007001"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-10-07/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — October 7, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Oct 7, 2026, 7:05 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.42% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**With the 10-year Treasury par yield at 5.28% and the 10-year real yield at 2.92% near 20-year highs, China & Hong Kong Equities is the cheapest asset class at a median fair-value index of 106.8 while Developed Pacific Equities is the most expensive at 89.3; no asset class clears the calibrated Treasury-beat publication gate in this run.**

The 4.42% one-year Treasury par yield is the investment-basis annual hurdle, and with the 10-year nominal at 5.28% and the 10-year real at 2.92% near 20-year highs the risk-free alternative is competitive with most modeled equity and credit returns.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +0.8 | Somewhat cheap | 106.8 | 93.8–120.2 | +6.8% | +9.5% | +5.1% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +0.7 | Somewhat cheap | 105.2 | 93.6–116.3 | +5.2% | +8.5% | +4.1% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.1 | Fair | 100.2 | 96.8–103.4 | +0.2% | +5.4% | +1.0% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | -0.1 | Fair | 99.4 | 91.4–108.1 | -0.6% | +7.0% | +2.6% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | -0.3 | Fair | 97.4 | 81.9–113.2 | -2.6% | +6.0% | +1.6% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.4 | Somewhat expensive | 98.6 | 92.5–104.6 | -1.4% | +6.5% | +2.1% |
| Metals | GLD | -0.5 | Somewhat expensive | 96.7 | 84.7–108.0 | -3.3% | +4.0% | -0.4% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -0.7 | Somewhat expensive | 96.3 | 88.3–104.5 | -3.7% | +6.0% | +1.6% |
| Energy | USO | -1.5 | Expensive | 89.5 | 80.3–99.9 | -10.5% | 0.0% | -4.4% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.9 | Expensive | 91.0 | 83.9–97.9 | -9.0% | +5.5% | +1.1% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -2.0 | Expensive | 89.3 | 82.3–96.8 | -10.7% | +5.0% | +0.6% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +0.8 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.4, P25 93.8, median 106.8, P75 120.2, P90 132.4. The market price sits at the 36.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +9.5%, P10 -24.0% to P90 +38.0%. Scenario decomposition of forward earnings growth, an about 2.2% distribution yield and partial multiple re-rating toward the ten-year median, with a wide two-sided tail for policy and geopolitical outcomes.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +0.7 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.6, P25 93.6, median 105.2, P75 116.3, P90 125.8. The market price sits at the 38.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.5%, P10 -21.0% to P90 +33.0%. Scenario decomposition of forward EPS growth, a 2.8% dividend yield and partial multiple re-rating toward the ten-year average, with wide tails for the semiconductor cycle and the dollar.

### Fixed Income — +0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 93.3, P25 96.8, median 100.2, P75 103.4, P90 105.9. The market price sits at the 48.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.4%, P10 -3.5% to P90 +12.5%. Starting yield to maturity of 5.52% as the carry anchor, plus price effects from the justified-yield scenario distribution applied at an effective duration of 5.68 years with convexity, less a small expected credit-loss allowance.

**Probability note:** the 56% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Europe Equities — -0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.0, P25 91.4, median 99.4, P75 108.1, P90 116.7. The market price sits at the 52.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -16.0% to P90 +26.0%. Scenario decomposition of mid-single-digit EPS growth, roughly 4.7% shareholder cash return and modest negative multiple drift from a 14.2x starting point.

### Crypto — -0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 68.1, P25 81.9, median 97.4, P75 113.2, P90 127.5. The market price sits at the 54.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -48.0% to P90 +78.0%. Scenario-weighted path across market-value-to-realized-value reversion, issuance scarcity, adoption and opportunity-cost anchors, with deliberately very wide tails reflecting the absence of a contractual cash-flow anchor.

### Real Estate — -0.4 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.0, P25 92.5, median 98.6, P75 104.6, P90 110.1. The market price sits at the 56.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -20.0% to P90 +28.0%. Scenario decomposition of roughly 3.5% AFFO per share growth, a 4.2% distribution yield and cap-rate-driven multiple change, with a widened left tail for refinancing and long-rate shocks.

### Metals — -0.5 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 73.2, P25 84.7, median 96.7, P75 108.0, P90 117.6. The market price sits at the 57.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.0%, P10 -26.0% to P90 +33.0%. Scenario-weighted metal price path blending the official-sector demand model, the regime-shifted real-yield relationship and supply-cost anchors, with no carry or income contribution for the physical sub-segments.

**Probability note:** the 49% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 72%.

### Japan Equities — -0.7 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.1, P25 88.3, median 96.3, P75 104.5, P90 111.8. The market price sits at the 62.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -17.0% to P90 +26.0%. Scenario decomposition of forward EPS growth, roughly 3.4% shareholder cash return and partial multiple convergence toward a governance-adjusted 15.5x, with unhedged currency widening both tails.

### Energy — -1.5 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 73.2, P25 80.3, median 89.5, P75 99.9, P90 110.4. The market price sits at the 75.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median 0.0%, P10 -33.0% to P90 +32.0%. Scenario-weighted crude price path from the official 2027 forecast and the marginal-cost and real-price anchors, net of estimated front-month roll yield, with wide two-sided tails for supply disruption and demand weakness.

**Probability note:** the 43% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 61%.

### US Equities — -1.9 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 77.4, P25 83.9, median 91.0, P75 97.9, P90 103.9. The market price sits at the 81.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -19.0% to P90 +26.0%. Scenario total-return decomposition: haircut forward EPS growth plus about 1.1% dividend yield plus partial convergence of the 19.0x forward multiple toward the 16.5x discount-rate-justified level, with a widened left tail for real-yield and margin shocks.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -2.0 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 76.4, P25 82.3, median 89.3, P75 96.8, P90 104.0. The market price sits at the 82.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -17.0% to P90 +23.0%. Scenario decomposition of mid-single-digit EPS growth, a 3.9% dividend yield and negative multiple convergence from an 18.1x starting point toward a 16.2x justified level.

## Sources

1. Earnings Insight — FactSet Research Systems — https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_100226.pdf
2. Short-Term Energy Outlook — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
3. ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2
4. ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM
5. Gold price and historical data — Trading Economics — https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold
6. Brent crude oil price and historical data — Trading Economics — https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil
7. WTI crude oil price and historical data — Trading Economics — https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
8. Copper price and historical data — Trading Economics — https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/copper
9. iShares MSCI China ETF fund profile — BlackRock — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239619/ishares-msci-china-etf
10. STOXX Europe 600 index page — STOXX — https://stoxx.com/index/sxxp/
11. Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026 — Outlook — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026/outlook
12. Nareit REIT Industry Tracker — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/data-research/reit-market-data/nareit-t-tracker-quarterly-operating-performance-series
13. Gold Is Forecast to Climb as Central Banks Buy the Precious Metal — Goldman Sachs Research — https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/gold-is-forecast-to-climb-as-central-banks-buy-the-precious-metal
14. S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio — GuruFocus — https://www.gurufocus.com/economic_indicators/56/sp-500-shiller-cape-ratio
15. Bitcoin realized price and MVRV — Glassnode — https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/70aa2400-53ee-4cb3-477e-b55793aa210a?a=BTC
16. iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF fund profile — BlackRock — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239458/ishares-core-total-us-bond-market-etf

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.